人民币在资本项下可兑换的改革条件和进程

资本账户开放的涵义是取消资本账户管制或者称为资本项目可兑换，取消对跨国资本交易及与之相关的跨境汇兑转移的限制，取消歧视性的货币安排，消除对跨境资金流动直接或间接的限制，最终实现一国货币的可兑换。资本自由化的贸易是不现实的，开放的经济条件下。世界经济一体化迫使各国不得不开放本国资本市场，开放资本账户。     

中东欧国家资本账户开放的经验和启示

21世纪的前十年,中东欧8国在资本账户开放之后经历了完整的国际资本流动周期,出现了资本流入急增、金融脆弱性累积和资本骤停等现象。中东欧资本账户自由化进程对中国资本项目开放具有借鉴意义,我国应更多运用宏观审慎政策和资本管制来管理资本流动,维持金融稳定。     

IMF报告对我国资本账户开放的启示

市场自由化理论认为,资本管制会导致资源配置的扭曲与低效。因此,国际货币基金组织(下称IMF)和发达国家一直致力于推动资本账户开放和资本自由流动。20世纪90年代初,受"华盛顿共识"的影响,基金组织积极开展工作,力促各国推进资本账户开放。但是,1998年的亚洲金融危机和2008年的全球金融危机表明,一个国家并不是必然地就能从资本账户开放中获益。以新兴市场经济体为例,在资本账户开放后,往往会因资本的汹涌流入而出现经济过热、资产泡沫等问题;还会在国际形势     

亚洲金融危机过后如何看待资本账户开放

资本账户开放可以带来很多好处，但同时也为一国的宏观经济管理提出了挑战，亚洲金融危机所暴露的重要问题在于，宏观经济管理和制度安排没有跟上资本账户开放的需要。开放资本账户本身既不是发展经济的捷径，也不是引发危机的必然因素，但开放资本账户必须具备一定的条件和前提。     

资本账户开放、短期国际资本流动与汇率时变关系研究

本文采用DY溢出指数和LT-TVP-VAR模型考察资本账户开放、短期国际资本流动和汇率之间的动态关系。研究表明：资本账户开放、短期国际资本流动和汇率之间存在显著的时变联动关系;资本账户开放对短期国际资本流动与汇率冲击的反应模式存在短期动态权衡规则,针对短期国际资本流动冲击的反应力度更大;随着对外开放水平提升,资本账户开放度、短期国际资本流动与汇率之间的互动传导渠道逐步畅通,且资本账户开放与短期国际资本流动之间存在互动强化效应,并对汇率产生叠加冲击;此外,汇率市场化进一步加剧三者时变关系的复杂性与异质性。     

金融服务贸易开放和资本账户开放的关系

资本张户开放．是指资本与金融账户的开放，其含义一直没有一个明确的说法。原因之一是资本账户开放不象经常账户开放那样．有一个权威的公认的国际组织负责管辖，因此任何相关的定义或者说法均不具公信力。虽然经合组织和欧盟分别有关于资本账长户开放和资本自由流动的规定，但同于其成员的代表性问题，一直没有在广泛范围内得到公认；同时其概念也没有明确界定，实际是一个开放的含义，只要任何措施导致资本不能自由流动或者投资、贸易自由化受到阻却，就极有可能被认定为资本管制。     

我国跨境资本管理的策略选择

为了实现资本账户开放与跨境资本管理的良性互动，我国的跨境资本管理可以从以下六项基本策略入手，建立未来我国跨境资本管理的政策框架。     

IMF有关各国资本流动管理措施的分类

2019年国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund以下简称"IMF")公布了《资本流动管理措施分类》。该分类汇总了2012年11月《资本流动自由化与管理机构观点》(以下简称《机构观点》)正式通过以来,各国资本流动政策的变化(对于《机构观点》采纳前已实行且不曾调整的资本流动政策,IMF仅在评估各国资本账户自由化的整体政策时才会进行讨论)。     

国际资本流动有效监控问题思考

对国际资本流动实施有效控制，就要加强宏观经济政策对涉外经济活动的指导和协调，坚持资本账户的有序开放，建立资本流动监控的预警系统，并建立国际资本流动风险预警体系，对国际资本风险程度进行测算。     

资本账户开放进程中的汇率风险研究

本文以资本账户开放为背景,按照全面风险管理体系对我国资本账户开放进程中的汇率风险进行测度和管理。测度1997-2018年间我国资本账户的开放程度,并运用GARCH-VaR模型度量我国现阶段的外汇市场风险。研究表明:整体而言,资本市场的开放程度与汇率风险之间存在正相关关系,在资本管制程度较高时,汇率波动整体较小,汇率风险较低;在资本管制程度较低时,国际资本流动频繁,汇率整体波动较大,此时汇率风险较高。为降低资本账户开放进程中的汇率风险,现阶段我国要稳步推进资本账户开放,建立全面风险管理体系,完善汇率制度,加强对市场的监督管理。     

法国资本账户开放的政策经验与启示

自20世纪80年代初开始,随着国际收支改善、金融部门发展以及金融自由化步伐加快,法国采取渐进式步骤,平稳实现了资本账户开放。文章介绍了法国实施资本账户开放的主要路径以及政策效果和影响,并总结了其对于我国资本账户开放的启示：如在资本账户开放前,应增强本国的实体经济、完善金融体系;资本账户改革需与整体经济改革协调一致;针对不同类别的资本流动风险采取不同防范措施等。     

Capital Account Liberalization and Aggregate Productivity: The Role of Firm Capital Allocation

We study the effects of capital account liberalization on firm capital allocation and aggregate productivity in 10 Eastern European countries. Using a large firm‐level data set, we show that capital account liberalization decreases the dispersion in the return to capital across firms, particularly in sectors more dependent on external finance. We provide evidence that capital account liberalization improves capital allocation by allowing financially constrained firms to demand more capital and produce at a more efficient level. Finally, using a model of misallocation we document that capital account liberalization increases aggregate productivity through more efficient capital allocation by 10% to 16%.     

我国资本账户自由化改革进程与路径研究

资本账户自由化是当今世界各国而临的一个不可逆转的进程.如何降低资本账户自南化带来的风险,成功实现资本账户自由化成为各国关心的问题.目前我国已初步具备实施资本账户自由化的基础条件,在现阶段可考虑采取综合配套改革模式,将资本账户开放的速度和内容与经济金融改革的其他方面保持一致,循序渐进、突出重点、分段实施,待条件成熟后实现资本账户完全自由化.     

Capital account reform and short- and long-run stock price leadership

This paper studies the effect of capital account liberalization policies on the price discovery of cross-listings in Chinese stocks. We construct a non-linear causality framework that decomposes short- and long-run dimensions of price leadership. Our analysis shows that capital account liberalization has had a profound effect on long-run A- and H-price leadership traits. Specifically, increased inward capital movement from Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors strengthens long-term leadership in the mainland A-market. Similarly, increased capital outflow from the Chinese mainland galvanizes long-term price discovery processes in the Hong Kong H-market. We thus offer strong evidence that capital account liberalization promotes stock market efficiency in the long-run. The present study's empirical account also suggests that such capital flows inhibit short-term lead-lag effects.     

Quantifying the effects of capital controls in small states

Capital account liberalization can potentially have important effects on the economy. Numerous techniques have been employed in the literature to quantify these restrictions. These include ex-post macroeconomic indicators, regression-based indices and qualitative indices of capital control legislation. This paper evaluates the effect of the removal of capital account controls on small island developing states. In order to evaluate the robustness of the relationship between capital account liberalization and growth, the study uses a bootstrap approach to index construction. This approach allows one to assess the potential effects of differences in index specification as well as explain inconsistencies reported in the published literature. The results reported in the study suggest that the relationship between capital account liberalization and growth is fragile but positive. These results imply that the countries should approach capital account liberalization with caution, as simply removing restrictions does not guarantee growth.     

Capital account liberalization, financial development and industry growth: A synthetic view

This paper synthesizes studies analyzing the effects of capital account liberalization on industry growth while controlling for financial crises, domestic financial development and the strength of institutions. We find evidence that financial openness has positive effects on the growth of financially dependent industries, although these growth-enhancing effects evaporate during financial crises. Further analysis indicates that the positive effects of capital account liberalization are limited to countries with relatively well-developed financial systems, good accounting standards, strong creditor rights and rule of law. It suggests that countries must reach a certain threshold in terms of institutional and economic development before they can expect to benefit from capital account liberalization.     

Trade in Financial Services and Capital Movements

International financial liberalization may alter saving–investment imbalances and patterns of capital flows across countries. Using a panel of OECD countries for 1990–1996, I examine how the liberalization of capital movements and financial services trade affects net private capital flows. Capital inflows tend to fall (rise) with the liberalization of commercial presence in banking and securities (insurance) services, possibly reflecting an increase (decrease) in saving. I find that capital account liberalization stimulates capital inflows, suggesting that better access to external financing helps sustain larger current account deficits. When cross-border trade is liberalized, capital inflows change insignificantly.     

危机视角下我国资本项目开放问题研究

本文运用M-F模型,从防范金融危机的角度分析了资本项目开放与金融危机发生的可能性之间的关系,认为一国开放资本项目后,金融危机发生的可能性将大大增加。在此基础上,本文对现阶段我国资本项目开放的条件和次序进行了深入研究并提出相关政策建议。     

资本账户开放对汇率波动和股市收益的影响研究——基于日本1998~2011年的数据

利用日本1998~2011年的月度数据,通过构建股市收益率、实际汇率变动以及短期资本净流入的三元结构的 SVAR 模型,对上述三变量之间的动态关系进行定量分析。结果表明：在资本账户开放后,短期资本存在套利和套汇的现象,短期资本流入会导致股指走低,却使得实际有效汇率小幅走高;日本股市虽然受到汇率和资本流动的影响,但影响有限;短期资本流动对国内国际变化较为敏感,应谨慎开放资本项目。此外,在推进资本账户开放的过程中,应同时推进汇率形成机制的市场化。     

Capital Account Openness,International Trade,and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.