中日证券市场几个重要问题的比较研究

本文系统地比较研究了中国和日本证券市场的多个问题，从数据挖掘和计量经济学角度分别针对价格序列、价格波动性和周内效应三方面对中日证券市场进行分析，得出指数收盘价时间序列比较方面，中国和日本两个证券市场的确存在一定的相似性，但中国市场的短期波动要大于日本市场；中国证券市场中上海和深圳股市的波动具有很强的波动聚类性和持续性，日本证券市场除了过去的方差记忆，还存在其他未知的影响市场变动的因素；周内效应在两国的体现不同等一系列重要结论。     

Time series momentum

We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities of speculators and hedgers, we find that speculators profit from time series momentum at the expense of hedgers.     

Convergence in banking efficiency across European countries

Our paper aims to check whether financial integration has taken place on the EU banking markets, by investigating the convergence in banking efficiency for European countries between 1994 and 2005. We provide evidence of cross-country differences in cost efficiency and of an improvement in cost efficiency for all EU countries. β and σ convergence tests for panel data show a process in convergence in cost efficiency between EU countries. Robustness checks with alternative specifications confirm these findings. These results support the view that financial integration has taken place on the EU banking markets in the recent years.     

Interday variations in volume,variance and participation of large speculators

We use data uniquely available from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to document the intraweek trading patterns of large speculators in five futures markets. These markets include futures traded against the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index, Treasury Bonds, gold, corn, and soybeans. We also examine the influence of large speculator trades on the patterns of volume and volatility for the contracts in our sample. Though we detect the familiar U-shaped and inverted U-shaped patterns across weekdays for volatility and aggregate volume, the association between volume and volatility becomes stronger when we separate large speculator volume from volume associated with other traders. The coefficient on large speculator volume is much larger than the coefficient on other volume in these regressions. Compared with total volume, large speculator volume is greater on Mondays than on the other days of the week in all five markets.     

How long memory in volatility affects true dependence structure

Long memory in volatility is a stylized fact found in most financial return series. This paper empirically investigates the extent to which interdependence in emerging markets may be driven by conditional short and long range dependence in volatility. We fit copulas to pairs of raw and filtered returns, analyse the observed changes in the dependence structure may be driven by volatility, and discuss whether or not asymmetries on propagation of crisis may be interpreted as intrinsic characteristics of the markets. We also use the findings to construct portfolios possessing desirable expected behavior such as dependence at extreme positive levels.     

Which market integration measure?

This paper compares the dynamics of the financial integration process as described by different empirical approaches. To this end, a wide range of measures accounting for several dimensions of integration is employed. In addition, we evaluate the performance of each measure by relying on an established international finance result, i.e., increasing financial integration leads to declining international portfolio diversification benefits. Using monthly equity market data for three different country groups (i.e., developed markets, emerging markets, developed plus emerging markets) and a dynamic indicator of international portfolio diversification benefits, we find that (i) all measures give rise to a very similar long-run integration pattern; (ii) the standard correlation explains variations in diversification benefits as well or better than more sophisticated measures. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.     

Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets

The use of close-to-close returns underestimates returns correlation because international stock markets have different trading hours. With the availability of 16:00 (London time) stock market series, we find dynamics of daily correlation and covariance, estimated using two non-synchroneity adjustment procedures, to be substantially different from their synchronous counterparts. Conditional correlation may have different signs depending on the model and data type used. Other findings include volatility spillover from the US to the UK (and France), and a reverse spillover which is not documented before. Also, unlike previous findings, we found the increase in daily correlation is prominent only under extremely adverse conditions when a large negative return has been registered.     

Mean and Variance Causality between Official and Parallel Currency Markets: Evidence from Four Latin American Countries

This paper examines the issue of mean and variance causality across four Latin American official and black markets for foreign currency using monthly data for the period 1976–1993. We apply a recent test developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) in order to test for mean and variance spillovers. The main findings are: (1) In contrast to the findings of previous studies, EGARCH-M processes characterize each bilateral exchange rate series in both markets; (2) There is substantial evidence of causality in both mean and variance with the causality in mean largely being driven by the causality in variance; and (3) The results indicate that the major exporter of causality is the Mexican black market with the black market of Argentina and the black and official markets of Brazil being the smallest contributors.     

Volatility dependences of stock markets with structural breaks

We develop a Vector Heterogeneous Autoregression model with Continuous Volatility and Jumps (VHARCJ) where residuals follow a flexible dynamic heterogeneous covariance structure. We employ the Bayesian data augmentation approach to match the realised volatility series based on high-frequency data from six stock markets. The structural breaks in the covariance are captured by an exogenous stochastic component that follows a three-state Markov regime-switching process. We find that the stock markets have higher volatility dependence during turmoil periods and that breakdowns in volatility dependence can be attributed to the increase in market volatilities. We also find positive correlations between the Asian stock markets, the European stock market, and the UK stock market. The US stock market has positive correlations with all other markets for most of the sample periods, indicating the leading position of US stock market in the global stock markets. In addition, the proposed three-state VHARCJ model with Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and break structure under student-t distribution has a superior density forecast performance as compared to the competing models. The forecast models with structural breaks outperform those without structural breaks based on the log predicted likelihood, the log Bayesian factor, and the root mean square loss function.     

Is financial reporting shaped by equity markets or by debt markets? An international study of timeliness and conservatism

We hypothesize debt markets—not equity markets—are the primary influence on “association” metrics studied since Ball and Brown (1968 J Account Res 6:159–178). Debt markets demand high scores on timeliness, conservatism and Lev’s (1989 J Account Res 27(supplement):153–192) R ², because debt covenants utilize reported numbers. Equity markets do not rate financial reporting consistently with these metrics, because (among other things) they control for the total information incorporated in prices. Single-country studies shed little light on debt versus equity influences, in part because within-country firms operate under a homogeneous reporting regime. International data are consistent with our hypothesis. This is a fundamental issue in accounting.     

Nonlinear interdependence of the Chinese stock markets

The methodologies and assumptions in financial integration studies are problematic and may lead to spurious empirical results. Using surrogate data analysis and the mutual prediction method of testing for nonlinear interdependence, it is feasible for an analyst, with a scant knowledge of the underlying dynamics of two dynamical systems, to show whether or not the systems are interdependent. This study applies these techniques in testing for nonlinear interdependence of three Chinese stock markets: Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. The empirical results of the present study indicate that the stock market series are nonlinear and that the Chinese stock exchanges are nonlinearly interdependent. Specifically, the evidence indicates that Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are bi-directionally interdependent, while Shanghai and Hong Kong as well as Shenzhen and Hong Kong markets are unidirectionally interdependent, with the direction of interdependence going from the mainland's markets to the Hong Kong market.     

Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?

Using long time series for sovereign bond markets of fifteen industrialized economies from 1875 to 2009, I find that financial market integration by the end of the 20th century was higher than in earlier periods and exhibited a J-shaped trend with a trough in the 1920s. The main reason for the higher financial integration seen today is the recent extensive globalization. Around the turn of the 20th century, countries frequently drifted apart. Conversely, in recent years, the bond markets of most countries have moved together. Both policy variables and the global market environment play a role in explaining the time variation in integration, while “unexplained” changes in the overall level of country risk are also empirically important. My methodology, based on principal components analysis, is immune to outliers and accounts for global and country-specific shocks and, hence, can capture trends in financial integration more accurately than standard techniques such as simple correlations.     

What role do futures markets play in Bitcoin pricing? Causality,cointegration and price discovery from a time-varying perspective?

Recent papers that have explored spot and futures markets for Bitcoin have concluded that price discovery takes place either in the spot, or the futures market. Here, we consider the robustness of previous price discovery conclusions by investigating causal relationships, cointegration and price discovery between spot and futures markets for Bitcoin, using appropriate daily data and time-varying mechanisms. We apply the time-varying Granger causality test of Shi, Phillips, and Hurn [2018]; time-varying cointegration tests of Park and Hahn [1999], and time-varying information share methodologies, concluding that futures prices Granger cause spot prices and that futures prices dominate the price discovery process.     

Sensitivity analyses of anomalies in developed stock markets

The literature on anomalies in developed stock markets produces no consensus on specification. This study uses extreme bound analysis (EBA) to evaluate the robustness of 15 stock-return anomalies given data covering 16 developed markets from May 1984 to March 1999. Two factors are sturdy according to the “extreme” decision rule in the panel design – D/P and momentum. Under a less stringent EBA criterion, long-run lagged returns, country risk, and the January effect are also robust. Time-series EBA for individual markets produces one robust result according to relaxed decision rules across a majority of cases – long-run government bond yields.     

Observed and “fundamental” price–earning ratios: A comparative analysis of high-tech stock evaluation in the US and in Europe

By assuming that a large share of investors (which we call fundamentalists) follows a fundamental approach to stock picking, we build a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and test on a sample of high-tech stocks whether the strong and the weak version of the model are supported by data from the US and European stock markets. Empirical results show that “fundamental” earning price ratios explain a significant share of cross-sectional variation of the observed E/P ratios, with other additional variables being only partially and weakly relevant.Within this general framework, valid both for Europe and the US, empirical results outline significant differences between the two markets. The most relevant of them is that the relationship between observed and fundamental E/P ratios is much weaker in Europe.     

A Test of Integration and Cointegration of Commercial Mortgage Rates

Little empirical work examines the extent to which commercial mortgage markets are integrated into broader capital markets. We use time series data on commercial mortgage yields and yields on comparable-maturity Treasury securities to identify a long-run cointegrating relationship between the two yield series. Our empirical evidence suggest that, while the yield on commercial mortgage is cointegrated with that on comparable-maturity Treasury securities, the cointegrating relationship is far less than that found between the yield on residential mortgage rates and that on comparable-maturity Treasury securities during 1980–1990 time period. However, our results also show that the spate of commercial mortgage securitization that began in early 1991 may have been a market-integrating force and caused the commercial mortgage market to become more integrated into broader capital markets. Indeed, our results suggest that changes in capital market rates are now much more rapidly reflected in commercial mortgage rates than in the 1980–1990 time period, although there is a lag.     

A leader of the world commodity futures markets in the making? The case of China's commodity futures

We use the daily data of 16 commodity futures contracts traded in China and corresponding foreign markets (the US, the UK, Japan, and Malaysia) to analyze the linkages between markets. Several findings are noteworthy. First, trading returns of foreign markets, such as the US, have significant impact on China's overnight (close-to-open) returns and vice-versa. Second, daytime (open-to-close) returns of many Chinese commodity futures contracts are not led by foreign daytime returns. Finally, the close-to-close returns analysis suggests that there are no significant lead-lag relationships between the Chinese and foreign markets. These results suggest that (1) the Chinese commodity futures markets are information-efficient, and (2) they are likely to be driven by local market dynamics occurring during the daytime trading session.     

The day-of-the-week effect in conditional correlation

The day-of-the-week effect in the first and second moments of the return distribution is a well researched area. However, not many studies have attempted to identify this effect in the comovement or correlation of the markets. This paper models the day-of-the-week effect in the returns and the conditional correlation for some Asia-Pacific equity markets. The paper finds a Monday, Wednesday and Friday effects in the returns for some of the markets. The effect is totally absent in the returns for Australia, Japan and Korea. For the fifteen conditional correlation series estimated, a predominant Tuesday effect is detected for five series. Three series exhibit a Monday effect. A Thursday effect is detected between the Singapore market and the markets of Australia, Hong Kong and Thailand. The paper finds no consistent day-of-the-week effect in the returns and the correlations for this region. JEL Classification G15 · G14     

Confucian culture and corporate bond pricing

We investigate the effect of Confucian culture on corporate bond pricing. Using the birthplace data of 56,759 Jinshi in the Ming and Qing dynasties to construct a proxy of Confucian culture, we find a significantly negative relation between Confucian culture and bond pricing: the stronger the Confucian atmosphere of the corporate headquarters’ location, the higher the bond rating and the lower the credit spread. This conclusion still holds after using the distance to the nearest ancient printing office as an instrumental variable and a series of robustness tests. The mechanism test shows that Confucian culture can improve the pricing efficiency of corporate bonds by fostering investors’ trust, alleviating principal–agent problems and restraining bad corporate behaviors. Moreover, the impact of Confucian culture on corporate bond pricing is greater for firms located in regions with weak legal and other formal institutional constraints and for unlisted companies. Our study complements the literature on culture and bond pricing, and provides policy insights from traditional Chinese wisdom for improving the efficiency of financial markets.     

The reaction of asset prices to macroeconomic announcements in new EU markets: Evidence from intraday data

We estimate the impact of macroeconomic news on composite stock returns in three emerging European Union financial markets (the Budapest BUX, Prague PX-50, and Warsaw WIG-20), using intraday data and macroeconomic announcements. Our contribution is twofold. We employ a larger set of macroeconomic data releases than used in previous studies and also use intraday data, an excess impact approach, and foreign news to provide more reliable inferences. Composite stock returns are computed based on 5-min intervals (ticks) and macroeconomic news are measured based on the deviations of the actual announcement values from their expectations. Overall, we find that all three new EU stock markets are subject to significant spillovers directly via the composite index returns from the EU, the U.S. and neighboring markets; Budapest exhibits the strongest spillover effect, followed by Warsaw and Prague. The Czech and Hungarian markets are also subject to spillovers indirectly through the transmission of macroeconomic news. The impact of EU-wide announcements is evidenced more in the case of Hungary, while the Czech market is more impacted by U.S. news. The Polish market is marginally affected by EU news. In addition, after decomposing pooled announcements, we show that the impact of multiple announcements is stronger than that of single news. Our results suggest that the impact of foreign macroeconomic announcements goes beyond the impact of the foreign stock markets on Central and Eastern European indices. We also discuss the implications of the findings for financial stability in the three emerging European markets.