我国财政政策宏观经济效应研究

财政政策是构成政府经济政策体系的重要部分,是实现政府经济政策目标的主要手段。2008年爆发的美国次贷危机引发了全球范围的金融危机,导致全球经济陷入衰退。为应对此次危机,我国政府采取了积极的财政政策。本文对我国财政政策的宏观经济效应进行了研究,并据此提出相应的对策建议。     

金融危机应对政策的反思与启示

金融危机爆发后,各国政府采取了规模空前的应对措施。本文对危机期间各国应对政策的效果进行了分析,认为全球经济在各国刺激政策之下呈现复苏的积极势头,但许多发达经济体政策回旋余地已经基本耗尽,新兴和发展中经济体则受到资产价格泡沫和通货膨胀的困扰,全球经济陷入多重两难境地。反思金融危机的应对措施,处理好应急措施与长期竞争力的关系、政府和市场的关系,方能降低危机应对政策的负面效应,降低危机应对的成本,防止用一种危机来拯救另一种危机。     

全球金融危机对我国经济发展的若干影响和防范策略

由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机和经济危机，由于经济全球化的传导，使得世界各国也因全球金融危机引发了经济衰退。我国可通过经济政策、国际收支、货币政策、加工贸易、财政政策、税收政策和产业结构调整来积极应对此次金融危机，以保持经济持续和谐发展。     

欧洲主权债务危机的启示及中国面临的挑战

<正> 一、希腊主权债务危机的起源与演进次贷危机白2007年8月浮出水面,到2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒闭时,演化为全球的金融危机、经济危机。面对危机,世界主要国家联手应对,危机的肇始国美国政府实施了大力的反危机政策,成功使得美国金融市场恢复稳定,经济恢复增长,其他各主要国家的经济也恢     

浅析金融危机形势下中国经济面临的经济形势

自美国次贷危机爆发以来,美国经济放缓,全球经济也受到波及。随着像雷曼兄弟等华尔街几大投行的相继破产,全球股市持续震荡下挫,次贷危机愈演愈烈,并演化成全球金融危机。面对当前纷繁复杂的国内外经济形势,分析了次贷危机及其根源.在此基础上,着重分析了本次金融危机对中国经济影响和中国的应对策略.     

金融危机中我国经济政策选择的反思

自2008年全球金融危机以来,面对严峻的形势,世界各主要经济体纷纷采取了应对危机的政策.然而,各国在总需求下降这个一致现象的背后,明显存在着重要的差别.例如,美国的经济危机首先从金融体系开始,而中国的危机是从出口下降开始.所以我国用和世界基本完全保持一致的扩张性财政政策和货币政策来应对危机,使后来的经济发展出现了一系列的问题.论文运用宏观经济学的基本理论,对金融危机中我国采取政策进行分析,从而说明在此后经济发展过程中出现问题的原因.     

我国国家审计在应对国际金融危机中的作用

2008年以来,由美国次债危机引发的国际金融危机波及全球,对我国经济健康运行产生了严重影响,使我国经济面临进入新世纪以来最为严峻的考验。审计作为保障国家经济与社会健康运行的免疫系统,在维护国家经济安全中发挥着不可替代的作用。本文从金融危机爆发后,各国审计署在面对金融危机行为的得失入手,在重点分析美国审计署在金融危机前失灵原因的基础上,介绍了我国审计署应对金融危机的措施并特别说明了财政资金审计面临的新挑战,总结了国内外国家审计在应对金融危机中发挥的主要作用,并根据经验借鉴进一步阐述发挥国家审计应对金融危机作用的对策建议。     

凯恩斯主义在此次金融危机中实践的评述——兼论对我国经济发展政策的启示

2008年9月美国次贷危机引发了严峻的国际性金融危机。面对此次危机,世界主要发达经济体依据凯恩斯主义的经济理论出台了一系列应对危机的政策措施.本文对这些政策措施及其效果进行了分析和评述,揭示了凯恩斯主义应对此次危机效果不佳的原因,进而指出此次凯恩斯主义的实践对我国经济发展政策的启示。     

凯恩斯主义在此次金融危机中实践的评述——兼论对我国经济发展政策的启示

2008年9月美国次贷危机引发了严峻的国际性金融危机。面对此次危机,世界主要发达经济体依据凯恩斯主义的经济理论出台了一系列应对危机的政策措施.本文对这些政策措施及其效果进行了分析和评述,揭示了凯恩斯主义应对此次危机效果不佳的原因,进而指出此次凯恩斯主义的实践对我国经济发展政策的启示。     

全球金融危机对我国经济金融的影响与对策

美国次贷危机目前已经演变为全球金融危机。此次金融危机使我国经济金融发展面临挑战。本文在分析金融危机对我国经济金融的主要不利影响后，提出了我国应对和战胜危机的三大对策建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.