牛市在哪里？

股市下跌总是触发反弹，并以缩量调整为基调。每次小反弹，都会引发人们对牛市即将到来的讨论、懂憬与向往。美国经济在沉沦中挣扎，但美国股市却反复创历史新高，身处长期熊市的中国投资者只能隔岸观“火”；一向暮气沉沉的日本股市，也在宽松货币政策刺激下大涨暴涨。     

全球股市振荡敲响警钟

自2007年2月27日开始，全球股市经历了一周左右的普遍下跌，直到3月6日才出现明显反弹。这一轮全球股市振荡是在世界经济基本面未出现重大变化的情况下发生的，主流观点认为是对全球股市此前累积的投机泡沫的“技术性调整”，尽管本轮股市波动未酿成“股灾”。但造成此次冲击的因素应引起我们的警醒。     

中国股市急需完善的制度建设

股市的持续下跌,虽然原因很多,但更深层次的原因还是市场机制的缺失,正是股市各项基础性制度建设的不健全才造就了股市的大起大落。只有改变中国股市制度及政策的内在缺陷,才能解决中国股市的根本问题。一是要稳步推出金融衍生产品。从     

中国股市急需完善的制度建设

股市的持续下跌，虽然原因很多，但更深层次的原因还是市场机制的缺失，正是股市各项基础性制度建设的不健全才造就了股市的大起大落。只有改变中国股市制度及政策的内在缺陷，才能解决中国股市的根本问题。     

晨星：政策微调不改向好预期

上半年7.37万亿元的新增贷款及估值水平低位反弹动机刺激了国内股市的大幅走强,股市已大致接近历史平均水平。晨星认为,虽然目前的估值水平极可能在短期内出现技术性调整,但受充     

不确定性仍很高 宜谨慎观望

本期中(9月12日～10月14日),伴随着外围股市的剧烈波动,大盘延续着之前的下跌趋势。10月12日起,在欧洲债务危机缓和、外围股市企稳反弹、汇金入市干预等较积极因素的影响下,大盘触底反弹。晨星认为,这只是7月中旬股市连续下跌以来的一个反弹,而非基本面的根本反转,且股指反弹力度不大,主力做多的欲望并不强     

金融地产领跌 谨慎等待转机

市场中期大幅调整趋势没变,而短期由于股市在持续深幅下跌之后已经累积了较强的反弹动能,后市如果政策面给予适当的刺激,那么市场反弹有望展开。操作策略方面,鉴于市场中期仍然为做空趋势,投资者仍应持续保持谨慎。     

学会做股市里的“滑头”

2012年的股市又一次进入一轮大熊市。虽然上半年也曾有过反弹，但是很快就以更为悲壮的下跌开启了熊市的旅程，最近，更是创出3年来的新低。     

鸡年，股市会“一唱天下白”吗

年股市从1492点开盘,运行至1300点附近,最高见至1783点,最低跌至1259点,全年运行没有什么生气,每次都是在外部的利好消息刺激下稍作反弹状,但都是昙花一现,此后便招致更为强劲的下跌。尽管9月份政府推出了“国九条”,但是5个月来,两市大盘仍然找不到上升的感觉。2004年股市就在     

熊市中要敢于出击搏短差

沪深两市自去年10月下跌以来，跌幅深达70％以上。令投资者损失惨重，甚至到了闻股丧胆，谈股色变的程度。跌幅如此之大，跌速如此之快，在中国证券史上还是第一次。很多投资者对股市已经是麻木不仁了。其实在牛市时倡导的是“长线是金”，那么在熊市时自然便是“短线是银了”。回头看看此轮股市的下跌，其实每次稍稍出现的反弹，都还是有短线机会的存在。而且都可以获得不菲的收获的。     

International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain

We study the joint dynamics of foreign capital flows and real activity during the recent boom-bust cycle of the Spanish economy, using a three-country New Keynesian model with credit-constrained households and firms, a construction sector and a government. We estimate the model using 1995Q1-2013Q2 data for Spain, the rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the rest of the world. We show that falling risk premia on Spanish housing and non-residential capital, a loosening of collateral constraints for Spanish households and firms, as well as a fall in the interest rate spread between Spain and the REA fuelled the Spanish output boom and the persistent rise in foreign capital flows to Spain, before the global financial crisis. During and after the global financial crisis, falling house prices, and a tightening of collateral constraints for Spanish borrowers contributed to a sharp reduction in capital inflows, and to the persistent slump in Spanish real activity. The credit crunch was especially pronounced for Spanish households; firm credit constraints tightened later and more gradually, and contributed much less to the slump.     

基于相关均衡的A股投机控制研究

追涨杀跌是股市投机中的聚点纯策略纳什均衡,在投机力量作用下,正反馈价格传导机制使得投资者陷入博弈困境,理性的投资者将依据共同观测到的信号进行趋势投资,建立价值投资的股市文化任重道远,政府有必要适时发出明确的相关信号维护股市平衡运行.     

Marketing of banking services in Nigeria

This paper (which was originally presented at the 2001 World Services Congress in Hong Kong, 19–21 September) traces the origins of marketing in Nigerian banking and shows how different economic, social and political environments have influenced the marketing of financial services in Nigeria. It argues that the future of the banking market in Nigeria will, in the main, depend on the ongoing integration of the country into the global market. With the return of the international banks, multinational and foreign companies and missions are likely to favour such banks for their banking transactions. The implication of this is that banks with little or no foreign ownership structures will gradually be forced to concentrate on the indigenous market. Unless the government can put its house in order quickly and ensure a stable macroeconomic environment for economic development, it is likely that market forces will cause several of these indigenous banks to merge their activities or be absorbed by the big international banks.     

社会保障基金国债投资的规模扩大效应分析

本文通过定性和定量分析方法讨论了社会保障基金投资国债产生的规模扩大效应。模型分析结果表明,该效应与金融市场深度和政府对社保基金国债投资比例的限量监管等因素有关。利用2001至2009年的实证数据分析发现,在当前金融市场发展状况下,如果社保基金大量投资国债,潜在的规模扩大效应将影响养老金系统性改革发挥改善未来年轻一代社会福利的作用。鉴于此,未来应当通过深化金融改革和放松限量监管来避免该问题。     

克拉玛依地方企业发展的政策建议

新疆克拉玛依是一个典型的石油资源型城市,国有经济占主导,其他经济成份极其有限;在产业结构中以国家战略性产业——石油产业为主导,其他产业比重很小;中央直属企业占主导地位,地方企业比重较小。2008年以来由于石油价格下跌、金融危机等原因,地方企业受中央投资及原油储量、产量、价格等因素的影响较大,本文分析了地方企业发展中面临的突出问题,提出了发展地方企业的相关建议。     

中国股市涨跌停板对投资者交易行为的影响

利用A股市场的日内高频数据,研究我国股市涨跌停板制度是否存在"磁吸效应",从而判断涨跌停板的存在是否会影响投资者在面临个股较大涨跌幅时的交易行为.研究结果表明:一,我国A股市场涨跌停板的设定并不会导致投资者流动性风险的增加;二、投资者观察到股价大幅波动时会比较谨慎,涨跌停板的存在抑制了股价波动的进一步增大;三,临近收盘时,如果股价已下跌了较大的幅度,投资者的损失规避交易会造成股价的继续下跌.     

Wall Street’s bailout bet: Market reactions to house price releases in the presence of bailout expectations

The rise and subsequent collapse of US house prices was one of the factors underlying the recent financial crisis. One could expect that the crisis brought increased attention to the housing market and thus led to stronger market reactions to house price news. We find that reactions indeed change, but with a peculiar twist: from September 2008 on, good news from the housing market are associated with falling US stock prices, and vice versa. The likely explanation, for which we provide cross-sectional evidence, is that falling house prices increased the market’s trust in a government bailout, thereby increasing market valuations of firms that were expected to benefit from government rescue measures.     

The Effect of Eliminating Direct Payments to Farmers on Land Values

This study looks at the effects of the complete elimination of direct government payments to farmers on the U.S. economy in general and the effect on land values in particular. The analytical approach used consists of a computable general equilibrium model composed of 14 producing sectors, 14 consuming sectors, six household categories classified by income, and a government. The results suggest that, with a complete elimination of direct government payments to farmers, there will be a reduction in output by all producing sectors of 0.18% or about $14.5 billion, a decline in output in the agricultural sectors of 4.39% or about $12.0 billion, a fall in the consumption of goods and services by about 0.11% or $4.15 billion, a fall in total utility by 0.47% or $22.0 billion, and a net reduction in expenditures for the government of $13.4 billion. Land values will be adversely affected, falling an average of 14%.     

金融危机持续蔓延，亚洲新兴市场未能幸免

美国金融危机造成了全球市场的动荡,亚洲新兴市场国家也受到不同程度的影响。尽管亚洲国家在此次危机中的直接损失有限。但其金融市场也遭受了诸如股市暴跌、汇率下滑等波动。油价回落、出口疲软和资金抽逃将使亚洲国家面临压力,未来经济前景面临不确定性。部分国家如韩国、印度和印尼,尤其是韩国出现危机的可能性较大。     

大股东干预对上市公司多元化投资影响的实证分析

本文主要从大股东干预的角度出发,通过分析政府作为国有上市公司大股东终极所有权人以及地方政府作为市场管制主体的角度来分析大股东性质对上市公司多元化投资决策的影响。