基于P2P网络借贷的信用风险管控研究

近几年来,我国P2P网络借贷行业经历了爆炸式发展,但是由于行业内较高程度的信息不对称以及监管缺失等原因,信用风险日益突出,投资者的权益并没有得到有效保护,扰乱了整个资本市场的有效运行。文章运用信息不对称等理论从信息、资金监管、平台运营管理三方面对P2P网络借贷的信用风险成因进行分析,并针对性地从国家顶层设计、监管机构、P2P网络借贷平台及借贷双方角度提出相应的管控建议。     

P2P网贷平台借款人信用风险影响因素研究

本文分析影响P2P网络借贷借款人信用风险的影响因素,并且利用"新新贷"等P2P网贷平台上的数据做实证分析,结果发现,P2P网络借贷借款人的学历、婚姻、房产、车产、工作情况和提供的材料数量对借款人的信用风险均有显著的正向影响,婚姻和工作情况的影响较大。最后,针对P2P网贷平台借款人信用风险提出对策建议。     

基于因子分析的P2P网络借贷信用风险生成与传导路径研究

P2P网络借贷平台环境下,由于集中了越来越多"不规范"的借款者,导致信用风险不断衍生传导。本文以"人人贷"平台随机抓取的数据为基础,通过探索性和验证性的因子分析,探讨P2P网络借贷信用风险的生成与传导路径,指出P2P网络借贷信用风险主要通过标的风险和借款者违约风险生成,且二者之间的相互作用借助平台信用保护机制,最终传导至整个P2P网络借贷行业。最后,有针对性地提出了防范控制我国P2P网络借贷信用风险的对策。     

P2P网络借贷平台信用风险防范策略研究

P2P是一种有效利用社会闲散资金,跳过银行进行间接贷款融资以满足个人资金需求的新型金融模式,其弥补了传统金融无法达到的领域,给金融服务业带来了崭新的发展前景。然而,随着近年来P2P网络借贷平台的跑路、垫付、庞氏骗局等负面事件层出不穷,给投资者带来了巨大的损失,也严重影响了行业整体形象,整个P2P行业的信用风险问题比较突出。在当前去担保背景下,如何做好风控,成为发展P2P网络借贷平台生死攸关的问题。本文通过对P2P网络借贷平台的信用风险进行研究并提出建议,以此促进P2P网络借贷平台的健康发展。     

基于P2P个人借贷平台的信用风险识别

P2P网络借贷信用风险对投资人的放贷决策有明显的干扰作用,能否有效识别来自借款人的信用风险,成为P2P网络借贷平台未来发展的关键.本文以P2P网络借贷平台拍拍贷2016年2月和3月发布的借款标的数据为样本,运用Probit模型,对P2P网络借贷的信用风险进行识别.研究结果表明:投资者能够识别来自借款人的信用风险.信用等级越高,风险越低,利率越高,风险越低;男性的信用风险要高于女性,而借款人是否婚配对于识别其信用风险有很大帮助;手机认证和户口认证在识别信用风险方面有同样的功效,央行征信认证报告有助于降低风险.     

我国P2P网络借贷信用风险下投资者利益保护研究——基于人人贷的数据分析

作为一种新兴的借贷模式,P2P网络借贷兼具互联网思维和普惠金融理念,自传入我国至今已成长为一股不可小觑的金融力量。而在P2P网络借贷中存在的借款人信用风险,严重危害了投资人的利益。国内P2P网络借贷平台为缓解此现象也进行了借款人信息披露机制,但通过对"人人贷"的实证研究发现,其标的信息中的大部分信息并不足以为投资者提供有效的风险判断。     

P2P网络小额贷款信用风险的影响因素识别——基于Logit模型的实证研究

2018年以来,P2P网络小额贷款风险频发,严重侵害到大众投资者利益,扰乱市场经济秩序。为此,本文以人人贷为例,运用Logit模型,重点从借款人视角考察P2P网络小额贷款的信用风险及其影响因素,旨在通过理论与实证分析,识别影响P2P网络借贷信用风险的关键要素,为我国P2P网络小额信贷市场健康发展提出相关政策建议。     

基于博弈理论的P2P借贷信用风险产生机制分析

P2P借贷作为互联网金融的重要组成部分,近年来,呈现野蛮式增长.由于技术因素、管理能力、法制环境和信用环境等方面存在缺陷,P2P借贷中的信用风险显得尤为突出.本文以信息经济学和博弈论为基础,首次提出了P2P借贷风险成因的理论框架,研究分析了P2P借贷的信用风险成因:信用体系不完善导致事前逆向选择,缺乏有效监督机制导致事中道德风险,缺乏有效约束机制导致事后道德风险.最后,针对P2P借贷信用风险管理提出相关对策和建议.     

P2P网络借贷平台发展趋势分析

P2P网络借贷平台作为互联网金融业态的重要形式,以其不受时间和空间限制的灵活性,低廉的操作成本,越来越得到小微企业和个人贷款用户的青睐,其业务内容已经从早期的借贷信息发布和交易撮合向其它借贷和金融服务范畴发展,其服务形式、交易模式、风险控制方法也不断变化,与银行等金融机构合作逐渐深入,成为传统金融机构的有利补充。本文通过对上海地区P2P网络借贷企业的调研,从P2P业务所面临的问题,其发展过程中存在的消极和积极因素,客户需求和政策影响等内容出发,对P2P平台的发展趋势进行分析。     

我国P2P网络借贷发展现状及其监管思考

P2P网络借贷,是指帮助投资者与借款人实现直接借贷行为的中介服务行业。发展P2P网络借贷对缓解我国小微企业及个人融资难问题具有非常重要的意义。自2007年“拍拍贷”网贷平台成立以来,我国网络借贷平台数量日益增长,对小额贷款领域贡献明显,但同时由于监管的缺位,一些P2P网络借贷平台不规范操作引发的风险给整个行业发展带来一定的隐患。通过对我国现阶段P2P网贷平台运行模式、发展规模等现状进行梳理总结,发现网贷平台发展良莠不齐,存在借款利率过高和监管不力等问题,为此提出了加快制定相应规章制度、加强监管、完善平台信息公布和加强平台内外部合作等规范P2P网络借贷的政策建议。     

Seeing is important: the usefulness of video information in P2P

P2P lending is an important research subject of rising internet finance research. This paper uses unique data from Renrendai, a leading platform in China, to test the influence of video information on P2P lending behavior. Results suggest that, first, the lower the borrower's credit rating is, the more likely they are to provide video information. Second, compared to the video‐information‐absent borrowers, the otherwise borrowers can get easier access to a loan and offer a lower interest rate. These results indicate that compared to text messages, video information can increase the borrower's creditworthiness and reduce the transaction risk. Thereupon seeing is important in online P2P lending. Third, when the borrower's credit rating is lower, the video effect is significant. The study makes sense in terms of the enrichment of P2P lending literature and the enlightenment on decision‐making of both lenders and borrowers.     

The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag

The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.     

“草根”金融P2P信贷模式探究

P2P信贷即网络信贷,具有小额、无担保、快捷、网络化的特点,又被称作"草根"金融模式。P2P信贷模式在全球范围内发展迅猛,迸发出强劲的生命力,近几年我国也相继诞生了上千家P2P信贷平台。通过对P2P信贷模式的运营模式、自身优点和存在的风险进行研究分析,进而提出解决P2P信贷风险的建议。     

论加强P2P网络借贷平台的监管

P2P网络借贷,即在网上实现借贷,借入者和借出者均可利用这个网络平台实现借贷的在线交易,一切认证、记账、清算和交割等流程均通过网络完成,满足了人们对资本便利快捷的需求.本文阐述了P2P网络借贷的基本概念、发展情况和积极意义,分析了其业务流程可能引发的风险,认为应将网络借贷纳入监管体系,制定监管原则、模式、内容以及安全与技术指标,引导其健康发展.     

Risk Overhang and Loan Portfolio Decisions: Small Business Loan Supply before and during the Financial Crisis

We estimate a structural model of bank portfolio lending and find that the typical U.S. community bank reduced its business lending during the global financial crisis. The decline in business credit was driven by increased risk overhang effects (consistent with a reduction in the liquidity of assets held on bank balance sheets) and by reduced loan supply elasticities suggestive of credit rationing (consistent with an increase in lender risk aversion). Nevertheless, we identify a group of strategically focused relationship banks that made and maintained higher levels of business loans during the crisis.     

公开竞标的贷款定价方式对P2P借贷平台的优化作用

P2P借贷是一种金融创新模式,将互联网技术与民间借贷相结合。互联网信贷的巨大需求推动P2P借贷平台的爆发式发展,而P2P借贷发展核心的两个问题是信用评级和风险定价。由于我国未完全实现利率市场化,P2P平台采用的是量化借款人信息的方式计算贷款利率。信息不对称导致P2P平台的贷款利率不能充分反映借款人风险,同时造成信誉良好的借款人不能获得低成本的贷款。文章利用拍卖机制模型对公开竞标的贷款定价方式进行探究,认为公开竞标方式可以改善信息披露,降低借款人的成本,借款人和投资人在公开竞标的贷款定价方式下都可以获得灵活的选择空间,从而提高借贷成功的比例。     

Institutional investment in online business lending markets

We provide new insights into the business lending decisions of institutional investors in online credit markets by benchmarking their lending performance against that of retail investors.We find superior performance for loans financed by institutional investors, although large sized retail investor groups achieve equivalent performance. Lending decisions of institutional investors are not default risk minimising, and we quantify lending inefficiencies. From a platform perspective, we show that (i) the platform-administered loan allocation process is not biased in favour of institutional investors, (ii) institutional participation in the retail marketplace is not a distorting factor in loan performance, and (iii) the platform’s move to a fixed rate system had detrimental effects on loan outcomes for institutional investors. The superior loan performance achieved by institutional investors is confined to the auction period, when institutional investors had autonomy over setting interest rates.     

Measuring Integrated Market and Credit Risk in Bank Portfolios: An Application to a Set of Hypothetical Banks Operating in South Africa

The banking crises of the ‘90s emphasize the need to model the connections between financial environment volatility and the potential losses faced by financial institutions resulting from correlated market and credit risks. Due to the number of variables that must be modeled and the complexity of the relationships an analytical solution is not feasible. We present here a numerical solution based on a simulation model that explicitly links changes in the relevant variables that characterize the financial environment and the distribution of possible future bank capital ratios. This forward looking quantitative risk assessment methodology allows banks and regulators to identify potential risks before they materialize and make appropriate adjustments to bank portfolio credit qualities, sector and region concentrations, and capital ratios on a bank by bank basis. It also has the potential to be extended so as to assess the risks of correlated failures among a group of financial institutions (i.e., systemic risk analyses). This model was applied by the authors to the study of the risk profile of the largest South African Banks in the context of the Financial System Stability Assessment program undertaken by the IMF in 1999. In the current study, we apply the model to various hypothetical banks operating in the South African financial environment and assess the correlated market and credit risks associated with business lending, mortgage lending, asset and liability maturity matches, foreign lending and borrowing, and direct equity, real estate, and gold investments. It is shown to produce simulated financial environments (interest rates, exchange rates, equity indices, real estate price indices, commodity prices, and economic indicators) that match closely the assumed parameters, and generate reasonable credit transition probabilities and security prices. As expected, the credit quality and diversification characteristics of the loan portfolio, asset and liability maturity mismatches, and financial environment volatility, are shown to interact to determine bank risk levels. We find that the credit quality of a bank's loan portfolio is the most important risk factor. We also show the risk reduction benefits of diversifying the loan portfolio across various sectors and regions of the economy and the importance of accounting for volatility shocks that occur periodically in emerging economies. Banks with high credit risk and concentrated portfolios are shown to have a high risk of failure during periods of financial stress. Alternatively, banks with lower credit risk and broadly diversified loan portfolios across business and mortgage lending are unlikely to fail even during very volatile periods. Asset and liability maturity mismatches generally increase bank risk levels. However, because credit losses are positively correlated with interest rate increases, banks with high credit risk may reduce overall risk levels by holding liabilities with longer maturities than their assets. Risk assessment methodologies which measure market and credit risk separately do not capture these various interactions and thus misestimate overall risk levels.     

P2P网络借贷中个人信息对借贷成功率影响的实证研究——以人人贷为例

P2P网络借贷（Peer to Peer Lending）是近年来从国外引进的小额借贷创新业务.从2006年开始,P2P网络借贷市场在中国得到了很快的发展,然而其一直面临着借贷成功率较低的问题.论文采用人人贷平台的3148条交易数据对个人信息对借贷成功率的影响进行实证分析.实证结果表明,借款人的基本信息对借贷成交结果有着显著的影响,可在一定程度上提高借款人的借贷成功率.