我国P2P网络借贷信用风险影响因素研究——基于排序选择模型的实证分析

P2P(peer-to-peer)网络借贷是一种借助网络平台,由个人与个人间互为借贷双方的小额借贷交易。它作为互联网与民间借贷相结合的新兴金融模式,具有较高的信用风险。采用排序选择模型,基于 ex-celVBA 数据挖掘技术截取多个 P2P 网站数据,对平台信用风险的影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明：个人特征、信用变量、历史表现、借款信息分别对网络借贷信用风险存在正向影响,由此发现网站提供的信息对投资者避免信用风险没有起到实质作用。     

公开竞标的贷款定价方式对P2P借贷平台的优化作用

P2P借贷是一种金融创新模式,将互联网技术与民间借贷相结合。互联网信贷的巨大需求推动P2P借贷平台的爆发式发展,而P2P借贷发展核心的两个问题是信用评级和风险定价。由于我国未完全实现利率市场化,P2P平台采用的是量化借款人信息的方式计算贷款利率。信息不对称导致P2P平台的贷款利率不能充分反映借款人风险,同时造成信誉良好的借款人不能获得低成本的贷款。文章利用拍卖机制模型对公开竞标的贷款定价方式进行探究,认为公开竞标方式可以改善信息披露,降低借款人的成本,借款人和投资人在公开竞标的贷款定价方式下都可以获得灵活的选择空间,从而提高借贷成功的比例。     

P2P网络借贷平台发展趋势分析

P2P网络借贷平台作为互联网金融业态的重要形式,以其不受时间和空间限制的灵活性,低廉的操作成本,越来越得到小微企业和个人贷款用户的青睐,其业务内容已经从早期的借贷信息发布和交易撮合向其它借贷和金融服务范畴发展,其服务形式、交易模式、风险控制方法也不断变化,与银行等金融机构合作逐渐深入,成为传统金融机构的有利补充。本文通过对上海地区P2P网络借贷企业的调研,从P2P业务所面临的问题,其发展过程中存在的消极和积极因素,客户需求和政策影响等内容出发,对P2P平台的发展趋势进行分析。     

Textual sentiment of comments and collapse of P2P platforms: Evidence from China's P2P market

Textual sentiment affects the investment activities of investors in traditional financial markets. Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending market, as one of the emerging and active Internet financial markets, has recently received considerable attention from academia. However, few related studies are available. This work examines the relationship between the textual sentiment derived from investors’ comments on P2P platforms and probability of platform collapse. We collect comments from an authoritative Chinese third-party P2P lending consulting platform and use a weakly supervised convolutional neural network to calculate the textual sentiment of each comment. Empirical results show that the extracted textual sentiment has a significant influence on a P2P platform's collapse. Furthermore, the “agreement” and “disagreement” from other investors of each comment are pivotal in predicting a P2P platform's failure. We find that the textual sentiment of comments regarding P2P platforms from investor communities provide insights into predicting platforms’ collapse in the near future.     

Seeing is important: the usefulness of video information in P2P

P2P lending is an important research subject of rising internet finance research. This paper uses unique data from Renrendai, a leading platform in China, to test the influence of video information on P2P lending behavior. Results suggest that, first, the lower the borrower's credit rating is, the more likely they are to provide video information. Second, compared to the video‐information‐absent borrowers, the otherwise borrowers can get easier access to a loan and offer a lower interest rate. These results indicate that compared to text messages, video information can increase the borrower's creditworthiness and reduce the transaction risk. Thereupon seeing is important in online P2P lending. Third, when the borrower's credit rating is lower, the video effect is significant. The study makes sense in terms of the enrichment of P2P lending literature and the enlightenment on decision‐making of both lenders and borrowers.     

“草根”金融P2P信贷模式探究

P2P信贷即网络信贷,具有小额、无担保、快捷、网络化的特点,又被称作"草根"金融模式。P2P信贷模式在全球范围内发展迅猛,迸发出强劲的生命力,近几年我国也相继诞生了上千家P2P信贷平台。通过对P2P信贷模式的运营模式、自身优点和存在的风险进行研究分析,进而提出解决P2P信贷风险的建议。     

网络借贷平台风险:宏观驱动因素与监管

本文尝试从网贷平台风险的角度,讨论宏观驱动因素和监管政策对网络借贷市场的影响。首先,利用我国网贷市场有代表性的651家平台近两年的日度交易数据,我们发现网贷平台停业风险与增长速度呈负向关系。进一步分析平台增长背后的宏观驱动因素,我们发现互联网技术供给和普惠金融需求共同影响行业发展,而平台增速低于预期将增大停业风险。其次,我们发现监管政策的出台有效降低了平台停业风险,并且降低了平台正常经营对高增长的依赖。但监管政策对于高风险省份的作用弱于或不显著区别于低风险省份,表明监管效果的针对性需要加强。本文对进一步完善网贷行业监管政策及产业政策有参考意义。     

Characteristics and mechanisms of not-fully marketized interest rates: Evidence from Chinese online lending

Most of the online lending rate are predominately determined by the platform, especially in the Chinese online lending markets, which indicates that the online lending rate is “not-fully marketized”. Based on a sample of 20 representative online lending platforms with daily data during June 1, 2017 to May 31, 2018 collected from Net credit eye and Lingyicaijing, our results, first, show that the average duration of loans, pending balance, newly added investors, and relative repayment amount are all significant factors for online lending rates. Second, from the view of the whole industry, the increase of the new investors also attracts more risk-seeking investors enter into the industry, who have considerable influences on online lending rates. Finally, when considering the credit rating of each individual platform, the explanatory power of the above factors is gradually weakened as the platform rating declines. This interesting finding suggests that the online lending rate of any platform can reasonably reflect its risks if the platforms keep better regulatory compliance. Our results provide theoretical and empirical supports for both regulators and investors.     

失信风险传染会影响债券定价吗？——基于担保网络大数据的实证研究

在债券定价研究中不仅应该考虑企业自身的信用风险,还应该考虑相关网络组织的传染风险。本文基于43万笔非金融企业间的担保数据,构建了企业信用担保网络,发现失信风险作为一种广义的信用风险,在担保网络中具有传染效应,该传染效应能够影响债券的信用利差。企业的失信行为产生了三类传染效应,一是直接传染效应,无论是发债主体的担保人出现失信行为,还是被担保人出现失信行为,都会引起发债主体的信用利差上升;二是局部感染效应,如果局部担保网络中失信主体的占比提升,可能引起投资者对发债主体的“团体处罚”,导致信用利差上升;三是全局扩散效应,失信信息沿担保网络向整个市场扩散,导致债券信用利差上升。从企业所有制来看,民营企业主要受微观的直接传染效应和中观的局部感染效应影响;而国有企业主要受全局扩散效应影响;被担保人的失信风险对两类企业都有显著影响。失信风险传染效应会降低企业的再融资能力,其中局部感染效应导致企业次年的借款融资额下降,全局扩散效应导致企业次年的债券融资额下降。     

Credit rationing in P2P lending to SMEs: Do lender-borrower relationships matter?

This paper studies the role of individual P2P investors that are acquainted with the borrower in mitigating credit rationing in P2P lending to SMEs. I use proprietary data provided by one of the biggest Dutch P2P lending platforms, on which personal acquaintances of the borrower are able to invest before other P2P investors do. I find that P2P investors invest more in loans of borrowers to whom they are personally acquainted. More initial investment by investors acquainted with the borrower is subsequently associated with a higher likelihood of obtaining a second loan from the P2P lender, larger investments by other P2P investors and lower ex post defaults. These results are consistent with informal lenders having superior information or monitoring skills and rational herding following informal investors' investment decisions.     

Rating manipulation and creditworthiness for platform economy: Evidence from peer-to-peer lending

Credit rating provides essential information on a project's credit risk to both lenders and borrowers. On exploring over five million lending listings from a leading peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform, a mismatch phenomenon was observed between credit rating and default probability of P2P listings across different credit rating groups, despite controlling for common credit-related characteristics. Further looking into the misevaluation of credit risk, it was found that this phenomenon was more pronounced when an unexpected intervention was likely to be applied in rating projects, such as listings with high credit ratings, large loan amounts, and less personal information. The study results question the credibility of related research that uses internal credit ratings, because this variable is likely to be manipulated by the platform.     

论加强P2P网络借贷平台的监管

P2P网络借贷,即在网上实现借贷,借入者和借出者均可利用这个网络平台实现借贷的在线交易,一切认证、记账、清算和交割等流程均通过网络完成,满足了人们对资本便利快捷的需求.本文阐述了P2P网络借贷的基本概念、发展情况和积极意义,分析了其业务流程可能引发的风险,认为应将网络借贷纳入监管体系,制定监管原则、模式、内容以及安全与技术指标,引导其健康发展.     

Survival or die: a survival analysis on peer‐to‐peer lending platforms in China

This study examines the probability of survival of online peer‐to‐peer (P2P) lending platforms in China. Our empirical findings show that shareholder's background, platforms’ risk management and institutional environment are three major factors that influence the probability of survival of P2P platforms in China. In addition, the effects of risk control and institutional environment are less pronounced in state‐owned P2P platforms. We also show that platforms that die from abscondence of owners tend to be more short‐lived than others, while platforms that die from liquidity problems are usually due to lack of high‐quality risk management techniques.     

基于SWN-SEIRS模型的供应链金融信用风险传染测度研究

针对供应链金融信用风险传染问题,采用SWN-SEIRS模型进行仿真模拟分析.研究发现:SWN-SEIRS模型可以有效描述供应链金融信用风险传染路径与过程;网络规模扩大增加了信用风险传染的速度,增大了信用风险扩散范围;核心企业数量的上升虽然加快了信用风险传染的速度,但有效控制了信用风险扩散范围.这为供应链金融风险传染问题的研究方法开拓了新的思路,并为金融风险防范提供了决策依据.     

基于产品端的网络借贷风险控制研究

网贷平台监管备案正稳步推进，其关键在于把控风险体系。现有文献大多围绕“交易过程—事件类型”探讨网贷风险，本文则以“事件类型—产品端”为切入视角，从网贷平台产品端的资金来源、信贷资产、资金池、信息披露等方面解析风险逻辑，层层剖析产品端风险漏洞枢纽的风险传输渠道。针对这些风险漏洞，可以通过加强产品端初始资金配对监管、充分发挥行业协会专业优势、完善中间资金账户管理机制和建立关联信息强制披露制度等手段，调整网贷监管体系，有效治理网贷风险，引导互联网金融行业规范发展和监管政策的贯彻落实。     

借款描述对互联网金融信用风险的影响研究

基于互联网金融提供的客户借款描述,通过潜在语义分析挖掘借款描述文本内容的主题,运用二元分位数回归分析借款描述对互联网金融信用风险的影响。实证结果表明,借款描述中有关情感表达、个人信用和借款目的的描述与违约情况呈负相关,有关财务情况的描述与违约情况呈正相关。     

P2P网络借贷中个人信息对借贷成功率影响的实证研究——以人人贷为例

P2P网络借贷（Peer to Peer Lending）是近年来从国外引进的小额借贷创新业务.从2006年开始,P2P网络借贷市场在中国得到了很快的发展,然而其一直面临着借贷成功率较低的问题.论文采用人人贷平台的3148条交易数据对个人信息对借贷成功率的影响进行实证分析.实证结果表明,借款人的基本信息对借贷成交结果有着显著的影响,可在一定程度上提高借款人的借贷成功率.     

Venture capital certification and customer response: Evidence from P2P lending platforms

This paper examines whether the certification effect of VCs extends to firm's potential customers, and whether, by certifying firms' values to potential customers, VCs provide value to firms. Using weekly trading data from P2P lending platforms in China, we find that the amount of loans facilitated and the number of lenders increase significantly by 25.7% and 49.3%, respectively, immediately after announcements that P2P lending platforms obtain VC investment. We find that this certification effect increases with measures of VC reputation and measures of information asymmetry between P2P lending platforms and potential customers. A difference-in-differences analysis provides consistent results, which are robust after controlling for the effects of news, advertising, and funding. We also document that VC-backed platforms are less likely to default than non-VC-backed platforms. This result provides indirect evidence that VC backing has long-term benefits beyond the news and advertising effects.     

P2P业务中的金融消费权益保护问题研究

近年来我国P2P网贷行业快速发展,但随着一批P2P公司陷入兑付困境,其背后隐藏的风险也开始显现。本文在介绍P2P存在的管理不规范等问题的基础上,剖析了导致这些问题的根源——立法空白、监管缺失、自律不足,最后提出了明确监管法规和部门、建立平台资金管理机制、加强信息披露等建议。     

P2P平台的信息不对称问题国外研究综述

信息不对称问题是困扰P2P平台发展的主要问题之一。论文重点梳理了国外学者P2P平台的信息不对称问题的研究以及由信息不对称问题引发的风险,之后针对P2P平台信息不对称问题,论文重点梳理了国外学者针对该问题的解决方案———“集体信贷”模式。最后,论文提出缓解P2P平台解决信息不对称问题的政策建议。