住房金融体系的国际经验

国际上较为典型的住房金融体系可分为三类(1)市场主导的住房金融体系,典型国家是美国和英国。(2)金融中介机构主导的住房金融体系,典型国家是德国、法国和日本。(3)政府主导的住房金融体系,典型国家是新加坡。下面对美国、德国和新加坡住房金融体系的特点进行介绍。     

美国德国新加坡的住房融资模式及其借鉴

我国的住房制度改革已经进行了十多年，住房融资已初具规模，住房融资的迅速发展对于支持住宅建设，促进国民经济快速、健康发展起了重大作用，但是也存在着诸多问题，因此如何借鉴世界上成功国家的经验，完善我国的住房融资模式，并以此建立我国的房地产金融体系，已经成为目前需要迫切解决的问题。     

借鉴国际经验改进我国住房金融体制

住房是关乎千家万户的大事,住房金融在世界各国的住房业的发展中起着相当重要的作用。由于市场环境、经济发展水平以及金融体系等因素,各国参与住房金融的机构、筹资模式、运行机制以及各国对住房金融市场的干预都不尽相同。就当前而言,世界上的住房金融以德国、新加坡和美国等国家的住房金融最为典型。文章将对以上典型国家的住房金融进行研究,并针对中国住房金融的实际情况,提出改进我国住房金融体系的措施。     

重塑我国住房金融体系的探索

建立、完善住房金融体系的过程，就是建立和完善住房金融市场、确立有效的住房金融市场机制并使之充分发挥作用的过程。探索住房金融体系的理论构成，分析重塑住房金融体系的紧迫性，并在此基础上提出建立我国住房金融体系的总体思路和模式框架，同时分析了其趋势特征，旨在建立以商业性住房金融为核心的新的住房金融体系。     

保障性住房投资与融资的机制研究

住房是价值大、占用资金多的耐用消费品,完善住房保障制度,解决中低收入居民住房问题,首先要解决住房资金问题,建立和完善保障房的投资和融资机制。目前不仅存在城镇住房保障体系及其金融体系不健全的问题,还存在金融体系与保障体系不配套的问题。论文在分析城镇住房保障体系、投资体系和融资体系问题的基础上,借鉴国际经验,提出了城镇住房保障体系的目标模式。在此基础上,研究了城镇住房保障的投资和融资机制设计及实现措施。     

美国、新加坡保障性住房发展经验及对我国的借鉴

国内外经验表明,住房与居民的切身利益息息相关.如何完善保障性住房建设,为中低收入群体提供满足其基本生活所需要的住房,乃是构建和谐社会的重中之重.本文从国外保障性住房的发展概况入手,对美国和新加坡的保障性住房体系进行分析,最后借鉴美国和新加坡成熟的保障性住房发展经验,针对我国保障性住房体系提出若干建议.     

赴美研修考察报告

湖北省住房制度改革考察团于1997年11月12日-24日赴美对美国住房制度及住房金融体系进行了研修和考察，现将研修和考察的主要内容报告如下。     

谈谈对完善我国住房金融体系对策的研究

随着城市化进程的加快,房地产行业雨后春笋发展起来,与此同时住房分配制度也不断发生改变,住房融资业务日益凸显,住房金融体系主要以抵押贷款为主,住房公积金为辅,兼以住房储蓄。但在具体运行中仍存在诸多需要完善之处,应借鉴国外先进管理经验,推进住房抵押贷款证券化、丰富融资工具、促进二级抵押市场的形成和发展,这是完善我国住房金融体系的必经之路。     

谈谈对完善我国住房金融体系对策的研究

随着城市化进程的加快,房地产行业雨后春笋发展起来,与此同时住房分配制度也不断发生改变,住房融资业务日益凸显,住房金融体系主要以抵押贷款为主,住房公积金为辅,兼以住房储蓄。但在具体运行中仍存在诸多需要完善之处,应借鉴国外先进管理经验,推进住房抵押贷款证券化、丰富融资工具、促进二级抵押市场的形成和发展,这是完善我国住房金融体系的必经之路。     

发达国家住房金融体系的国际经验及启示

目前我国住房金融体系还不能完全适应住房市场发展和居民购房的需要.因此,应借鉴发达国家住房金融体系的先进经验,健全和完善我国住房金融体系.     

Mortgage defaults

A life-cycle model is developed in which households face income and house-price risk and buy houses with mortgages. This model, which accounts for key features in U.S. data, is used as a laboratory for prudential policy. Recourse mortgages increase the cost of default but also lower equity and increase payments. The effect on default is nonmonotonic. Loan-to-value (LTV) limits increase equity and lower the default rate, with negligible effects on housing demand. Combining recourse mortgages and LTV limits reduces the default rate while boosting housing demand. Together, they also prevent spikes in default after large declines in aggregate house prices.     

Housing tenure choice

This article revisits the microeconomics of housing tenure choice. It asks, How does a rational consumer make housing tenure decisions? The article builds on earlier papers on the subject in two ways. First, it brings together all relevant components of the portfolio decision in a single and coherent analytical framework. Second, it presents numerical analysis with carefully chosen national data and post-1986 tax reform tax provisions. The conclusion is that occupancy required for ownership to be rational is probably somewhat longer than it was during the 1970s and early 1980s, and is probably longer than many economists suspect. It seems apparent from the numerical analysis that substantial segments of the U.S. population should not be owner-occupiers regardless of anticipated occupancy.     

Regional Housing Prices in the USA: An Empirical Investigation of Nonlinearity

Existing literature on housing prices is predominantly in a linear framework, and an important question that has not been addressed is whether housing prices exhibit nonlinearity. We examine Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model based nonlinear properties of housing prices over the 1969–2004 period for the entire US and the four regions. Our main findings are (1) housing price for the entire US and all regions except for the Midwest show non-linearity, (2) the dynamic properties implied by the nonlinear estimation explain the typical patterns that have characterized each housing market, and (3) results of Granger causality tests look more plausible in the nonlinear framework where we find stronger evidence of Granger causality from housing price to employment and also from mortgage rates to housing price.

DOLLARIZATION FOR ARGENTINA

In January 1999, President Carlos Menem suggested replacing the Argentine peso with the U.S. dollar. President Menem's announcement has sparked a debate throughout Latin America and Eastern Europe about what has been termed "dollarization." That debate prompted U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to deliver a major policy speech on alternative exchange-rate regimes on April 21, 1999 and the U.S. Senate Banking Committee to hold dollarization hearings the following day featuring Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence Summers.
This article presents a case for officially dollarizing Argentina. Dollarization is not new. Unofficial dollarization is widespread in emerging market countries; in fact, as much as 70% of the stock of U.S. dollars now circulates abroad. Twenty-eight countries and dependent territories are officially dollarized. Although official dollarization would result in Argentina losing seigniorage of about 0.22 percent of GDP, the author estimates that this cost would be more than offset by a reduction in interest rates that would increase Argentina's trend rate of GDP growth by about two percent.
After debunking the most common criticisms of dollarization, the article closes by offering recommendations about the specific form of dollarization and presenting a detailed dollarization statute for Argentina. The author proposes a competitive currency regime for Argentina, one in which all foreign money would be legal tender.     

The Interaction between Mortgage Financing and Housing Prices in Greece

Although the close empirical relationship between the evolution of mortgage lending and housing prices is well established in the literature, the direction of causation is less clear from a theoretical standpoint. We apply multivariate cointegration techniques in order to address this issue empirically for the Greek economy. Our results, based on a cointegration relationship that we identify as a mortgage loan demand equation, indicate that housing prices do not adjust to disequilibria in the market for housing loans. This suggests that in the long run the causation does not run from mortgage lending to housing prices. In the short run we find evidence of a contemporaneous bi-directional dependence.

Financial Markets and Economic Growth

The current economic problems in Southeast Asia can be attributed not to too much reliance on financial markets, but to too little . Like the U.S. economy a century ago, the emerging Asian economies do not have welldeveloped capital markets and so remain heavily dependent on their banking systems to finance growth.
For all its benefits, banking is "not only basically 19th-century technology, but disaster-prone technology." The extreme maturity (and, in some cases, currency) mismatch on banks' balance sheets plus the first-come, first-served nature of the deposit obligations mean that banks are inherently vulnerable to massive runs by depositors—and that their economies are subjected to periodic credit crunches. And, as the author says, "in the summer of 1997 a banking-driven disaster struck in East Asia, just as it had struck so many times before in U.S. history."
In this century, In this century, the U.S. economy has steadily reduced its dependence on banks by developing "dispersed and decentralized" financial markets. In so doing, it has increased the efficiency of the U.S. capital allocation process and reduced its susceptibility to the credit crunches that have occurred throughout U.S. history. By contrast, Japan has not reduced its economy's dependence on banks, and its efforts to deal with its banking problems have served only to destabilize itself as well as its neighbors. Developing countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere are urged not to follow the Japanese example, but to take measures aimed at developing financial markets and institutions that will either substitute for or complement bank products and services.     

人口结构转变与中国住房需求:1999～2025——基于人口普查数据的微观实证研究

本文首次利用人口普查数据对人口结构转变和中国住房需求的关系进行实证研究。经验观察表明,"婴儿潮"很可能是2004年以来中国住房价格快速上涨的重要原因。基于微观家户数据的实证研究发现,中国居民住房需求与年龄高度相关:个人在20岁以后住房需求快速上升,直到50岁以后开始逐步下降;这些实证结果对于测量误差、样本选择、住房产权类型都是稳健的;进一步研究表明,"组群效应"是50岁以后个体住房需求下降的主要原因。以人口结构转变为基础,本文估算了1999～2025年中国的住房需求,发现住房需求增长率很好地拟合了2004年以来住房价格的变化;同时,人口老龄化将导致中国住房需求增长率在2012年以后大幅下降,这意味着中国未来住房需求存在下行可能,宏观调控政策需要未雨绸缪。     

Housing booms and bank growth

The rapid increase in U.S. house prices during the 2001–2006 period was accompanied by a historically rapid expansion of bank assets. We exploit cross-regional variation in local housing booms to study how housing demand shocks affected the growth of the banking sector. We estimate the effect of housing demand shocks that are orthogonal to observed non-housing demand shocks and credit supply shocks in each bank’s market area. We employ several instrumental variables that plausibly identify variation in local housing demand that is exogenous to local banks. We find that the housing boom had a large effect on bank asset growth—the cross-regional elasticity of bank growth with respect to housing demand shocks is around 0.6. The regional elasticity estimate suggests that housing demand shocks can potentially account for a large fraction of the growth of the banking sector during this period.     

干得好不如嫁得好?——房价变动与居民婚姻观念研究

房价的快速上涨是近年来我国经济中的重要现象,对宏观经济增长乃至微观个人的观念与行为都产生了重大的影响,但尚未有研究系统考察房价变化对居民婚姻观念的影响。房价上涨反映了对未来预期的不确定性,这种不确定性势必会影响到人们对工作与婚姻的权衡。本文基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2010和2015年数据,详细考察了房价变动对人们在工作与婚姻之间权衡的影响,用人们对“干得好不如嫁得好”的看法来衡量工作与婚姻的权衡。研究结果表明,房价涨幅越高,居民对“干得好不如嫁得好”的认同感越高,且这种现象主要体现在女性群体中。异质性分析表明,女性、未婚女性、已婚女性、女性流动人口、城镇户籍女性以及拥有女儿数量越多的人在工作与婚姻的权衡中更倾向于通过婚姻来抵御未来预期不确定性产生的风险。房价上涨主要通过财富效应和预算约束效应对人们在工作与婚姻之间的权衡产生影响。     

住房价格、房屋购买与中国家庭杠杆率

本文基于中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据以及相匹配的城市层面的住房价格数据,从住房购买需求的角度,给出了一个近年来家庭杠杆率急剧上升的解释。利用中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据探讨了房价上涨对家庭杠杆率的作用机制以及潜在影响。结果表明,住房价格的快速上涨推动了家庭杠杆率的急剧攀升,从数量上看,房价每上涨1倍,样本期间的家庭贷款数额将会增长288.1%,家庭杠杆率将上升39.2%,而此部分贷款的增加主要来源于银行贷款而非私人借贷,由房价导致的家庭借贷数额和杠杆率的上升大概占到购房家庭总体借贷数额和杠杆率上升的90%左右。机制分析表明,住房价格的快速上涨刺激了家庭必需型和投资型住房需求,并提高了家庭的借贷意愿和风险偏好。分样本的探讨发现,这一效应对于非农户口家户以及有配偶和子女家户的影响更为明显。