The financial Kuznets curve: Evidence for the euro area

The paper introduces a new specification of the Kuznets curve, where turning point per capita income is conditioned on the level of financial development. We then provide new evidence on income inequality dynamics for the euro area (EA) countries since the mid-1980s. We find evidence in favor of an EA-wide financial Kuznets curve, also resilient to the recent financial and economic crises. From a policy perspective, our findings highlight the importance of financial development in fostering not only economic growth, but also a more even distribution of income.     

Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?

Using long time series for sovereign bond markets of fifteen industrialized economies from 1875 to 2009, I find that financial market integration by the end of the 20th century was higher than in earlier periods and exhibited a J-shaped trend with a trough in the 1920s. The main reason for the higher financial integration seen today is the recent extensive globalization. Around the turn of the 20th century, countries frequently drifted apart. Conversely, in recent years, the bond markets of most countries have moved together. Both policy variables and the global market environment play a role in explaining the time variation in integration, while “unexplained” changes in the overall level of country risk are also empirically important. My methodology, based on principal components analysis, is immune to outliers and accounts for global and country-specific shocks and, hence, can capture trends in financial integration more accurately than standard techniques such as simple correlations.     

Foreign participation and banking competition: Evidence from the Indonesian banking industry

Foreign participation in Indonesian banking has expanded from the establishment of foreign de novo banks into the acquisition of existing local banks. The increase in foreign participation has therefore not been associated with a growing number of banks. This study aims to examine the competitive behavior of foreign and local banks as a competitive banking industry is important in boosting economic efficiency and economic growth. This study also examines the role of modes of entry of foreign banks on competition, either through the establishment of foreign de novo banks or the acquisition of local banks. The recent methodological refinements of the Panzar–Rosse method developed by Bikker et al. (2011) are employed to estimate the level of competition among local and foreign banks. Generally, the foreign banks, particularly foreign de novo banks behaved more competitively than local banks, and their penetration is therefore important in creating a contestable market. This study found that in terms of assets, on average foreign de novo banks were smaller, more efficient, and had lower overhead costs, so they could offer lower loan rates and disburse more loans. The recent consolidation in the Indonesian banking industry may have an adverse impact on competition as it restricts the establishment of foreign de novo banks.     

Aggregate accounting research and development expenditures and the prediction of real gross domestic product

The role of accounting information for public policy making has received increased attention in recent years. Konchitchki and Patatoukas, 2014a, Konchitchki and Patatoukas, 2014b demonstrate that growth in aggregate accounting earnings can predict future growth in nominal and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We extend the micro to macro literature by decomposing earnings into the R&D and pre-R&D components. Using the Almon (1965) finite distributed lag model, we find that both components can predict future real GDP growth with different lead-lag structures. Importantly, this decomposition significantly increases the explanatory power of the predictive model using accounting information. Aggregate accounting R&D can predict real GDP through the personal consumption, business investment, and net export channels of GDP. Our study extends prior research on the forecasting usefulness of accounting information at the aggregate level and has practical implications for macro forecasting and for public policy making regarding innovative activities of publicly listed firms.     

Euro money market spreads during the 2007–? financial crisis

In the paper we investigate the empirical features of euro area money market turbulence during the recent financial crisis. By means of a novel Fractionally Integrated Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive model, we find evidence of a deterministic level factor in the EURIBOR-OIS (OIS) spreads term structure, associated with the two waves of stress in the interbank market, following the BNP Paribas (9 August 2007) and Lehman Brothers (16 September 2008) “shocks”, and two additional factors, of the long memory type, bearing the interpretation of curvature and slope factors, respectively. The unfolding of the crisis yields a significant increase in their persistence and volatility. We also find evidence of a declining trend in the level and volatility of OIS spreads since December 2008, associated with ECB liquidity policies.     

Dating,discounting, and the robustness of the Lucas-Sargent proposition

From recent work by Thomas Sargent and others, it has become well known that, if expectations are formed rationally, monetary stabilization policy will be entirely ineffective in an economy in which the aggregate supply function relates output (relative to capacity) to the difference between the current price level and the value expected one period earlier. This paper considers whether this neutrality proposition holds when the expectation of some future price is compared with the current actual price in the supply equation. It is shown that the proposition remains valid if the future price is appropriately discounted.     

Shadow banking,insurance and financial sector stability

Motivated by the recent financial crisis and the near collapse of the insurance giant American International Group (AIG), we empirically study the link between the insurance sector, the size of the shadow system and financial stability across countries. Using the Z-score as a measure of financial stability and the ratio of insurance assets to GDP for 26 countries during the period 1998–2011, this paper shows that: (i) the insurance sector is negatively and significantly related to financial stability, and that (ii) using the shadow banking system as a channel, the insurance sector is detrimental to financial stability for countries with a high level of shadow banking assets.     

Islamic and conventional banks' soundness during the 2007–2008 financial crisis

The recent global financial crisis has induced a series of failure of many conventional banks and led to an increased interest in the Islamic banking business model. This paper attempts to answer empirically the following question: What was the effect of the 2007–2008 financial crisis on the soundness of Islamic banks and their conventional peers? Using the Z-score as an indicator of bank stability, our regression analysis (covering a matched sample of 34 Islamic Banks (IBs) and 34 conventional banks (CBs) from 16 countries) shows that there is no significant difference in terms of the effect of the financial crisis on the soundness of IBs and CBs. This finding reveals that IBs are diverging from their theoretical business model which would have allowed them to keep the same level of soundness even during the crisis.     

Measuring the impact of accounting journals using Google Scholar and the g-index

The UK's proposed Research Excellence Framework promotes a move towards citation analysis for assessing research performance. However, for business disciplines, journal rankings are likely to remain an important aid in evaluating research quality. The accounting literature includes many journal rankings and citation studies, however there has been little coverage of recent advances in these areas. This study explores approaches to assessing the impact of accounting journals with a focus on quantitative measures as a complement to peer-review-based evaluation. New data sources and techniques for citation studies are reviewed, and the g-index is selected for further analysis. The g-index was developed by Professor Leo Egghe in 2006 as an improvement on the h-index. Like the h-index, the g-index represents a relationship between papers published and the level of citations they receive, but the g-index is more sensitive to highly cited paper. To apply the g-index to accounting journals, the study first combines eight published journals rankings to produce a list of 34 highly-regarded titles. Citation data are then gathered from Google Scholar and used to calculate g-index scores as the basis of a new ranking. Google Scholar is found to have broader coverage of accounting citations than Scopus or the Web of Science databases, but requires cleaning to remove duplicate entries. The use of the g-index for ranking journals is found to be a useful innovation in citation analysis, allowing a more robust assessment of the impact of journals.     

Interest rates and bank risk-taking

A recent line of research views the low interest-rate environment of the early to mid 2000s as an element that triggered increased risk-taking appetite of banks in search for yield. This paper uses approximately 18000 annual observations on euro area banks over the period 2001-2008 and presents strong empirical evidence that low-interest rates indeed increase bank risk-taking substantially. This result is robust across a number of different specifications that account, inter alia, for the potential endogeneity of interest rates and/or the dynamics of bank risk. Notably, among the banks of the large euro area countries this effect is less pronounced for French institutions, which held on average a relatively low level of risk assets. Finally, the distributional effects of interest rates on bank risk-taking due to individual bank characteristics reveal that the impact of interest rates on risk assets is diminished for banks with higher equity capital and is amplified for banks with higher off-balance sheet items.     

Tax accrual workpapers and the discovery process: Textron provides insight

The paper examines certain recent developments concerning the extent to which tax accrual workpapers are subject to discovery by third parties. One context in which this issue has arisen has involved IRS efforts to attain such workpapers from accountants in the course of conducting a tax audit. Arguments raised in an effort to protect such workpapers from discovery have included: the attorney-client privilege, tax practitioner privilege and work product doctrine. Assertion of the work product doctrine has met with some success in recent cases, e.g., Roxworthy and Textron. Included among the topics discussed in this paper are the IRS definition of tax accrual workpapers, standards and rules concerning the application and waiver of the work product doctrine, and the recent United States District Court decision in the Textron case.     

Corporate taxation and the quality of research and development

This paper examines the impact of tax incentives on corporate research and development (R&D) activity. R&D tax incentives are commonly provided as special tax allowances or tax credits. In recent years, several countries also reduced their income tax rates on R&D output with the purpose to foster R&D activity. Previous papers have shown that all three tax instruments are effective in raising the quantity of R&D related activity. We in turn assess the impact of corporate tax incentives on the quality of R&D projects, i.e., their innovativeness and earnings potential. Using rich data on corporate patent applications to the European patent office, we find that a low tax rate on patent income raises the average profitability and innovation level of the projects undertaken in a country. The effect is statistically significant and economically relevant and prevails in a number of sensitivity checks. Generous R&D tax credits and tax allowances are in contrast found to exert a negative impact on project quality.     

Multivariate term structure models with level and heteroskedasticity effects

The paper introduces and estimates a multivariate level-GARCH model for the long rate and the term-structure spread where the conditional volatility is proportional to the γth power of the variable itself (level effects) and the conditional covariance matrix evolves according to a multivariate GARCH process (heteroskedasticity effects). The long-rate variance exhibits heteroskedasticity effects and level effects in accordance with the square-root model. The spread variance exhibits heteroskedasticity effects but no level effects. The level-GARCH model is preferred above the GARCH model and the level model. GARCH effects are more important than level effects. The results are robust to the maturity of the interest rates.     

Are audit partners’ compensation and audit quality related to their consulting revenues?

Recent accounting scandals have triggered renewed interest in the debate concerning whether audit firms should be banned from providing consulting services. Compared to the voluminous studies on consulting services to audit clients (i.e., non-audit services, hereafter NAS), little has been done to investigate consulting services to non-audit clients (hereafter CS). This study examines whether audit partners' revenues from CS are associated with: i) partners' compensation, and ii) audit quality (AQ), while controlling for revenues from NAS and auditing. We choose the Norwegian setting because of the unique and proprietary data on CS at the audit partner level. Our results provide initial evidence that partners' compensation is positively associated with their revenues generated from CS. Regarding AQ, our findings indicate no relation between AQ and partners' revenues from CS. This study contributes to the recent debate on multidisciplinary audit firms and should be of interest to regulators, audit firms, and users of audited financial statements.     

Tests of the multiperiod two-parameter model

Although investors face multiperiod decision problems, there are conditions under which the results of the one-period two-parameter model apply period by period. In addition to the assumptions made in the development of the two-parameter model itself (a perfect capital market, investor risk aversion, and normal distributions of one-period portfolio returns), the critical assumption in a multiperiod context is that, for any t, returns on portfolio assets from t?1 to t are independent of stochastic elements of the state-of-the-world at time t that affect investor tastes for given levels of wealth to be obtained at t.One such element of the state-of-the-world is the nature of investment opportunities to be available at t. For example, if the level of expected returns on investment portfolios to be available at time t is uncertain at time t?1, and if the returns from t?1 to t on some investment assets are more strongly related to the level of expected returns at t than returns on other assets, then the former assets are better vehicles for hedging against the level of expected returns at t. This can affect the demands for assets and their prices in such a way that the simple results of the one-period two-parameter model do not hold.The empirical tests of this paper reveal no evidence of measurable relationships between the returns on portfolio assets from t?1 to t and the level of expected returns to be available at t. Indeed, in our opinion there is no reliable evidence that the level of expected returns changed during the 1953–1972 period.     

Local social knowledge management: Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises

A key question for policymakers at the regional and local level is how to provide the right conditions for generating the growth of more knowledge-intensive forms of economic activity within the context of dynamic innovation systems or learning regions. Regional foresight exercises may provide a useful instrument in helping chart their economic strategies. Successful regions must be able to engage in regional foresight exercises that identify and cultivate their assets, undertake collaborative processes to plan and implement change, and encourage a regional mindset that fosters growth. Communities and regions, like companies, need to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. As a result, successful regions must be able to engage in regional foresight exercises that identify and cultivate their assets, undertake collaborative processes to plan and implement change, and encourage a regional mindset that fosters growth. This paper provides an overview of these issues by reviewing the most important ideas in the recent literature on innovation systems, technological dynamism and local economic development. We regard regional foresight processes to be, at their most fundamental level, socially organized learning processes involving learning by individuals, by firms, and by institutions. One of our central concerns is to show how the actions of individuals to shape collective local visioning exercises interact with larger institutional structures to produce local outcomes.     

Convergence in banking efficiency across European countries

Our paper aims to check whether financial integration has taken place on the EU banking markets, by investigating the convergence in banking efficiency for European countries between 1994 and 2005. We provide evidence of cross-country differences in cost efficiency and of an improvement in cost efficiency for all EU countries. β and σ convergence tests for panel data show a process in convergence in cost efficiency between EU countries. Robustness checks with alternative specifications confirm these findings. These results support the view that financial integration has taken place on the EU banking markets in the recent years.     

An other view of integral futures: De/reconstructing the IF brand

This paper points to some limitations of the narrow version of integral futures (IF) as represented in the recent special issue of Futures (2008, vol. 40, issue 2). I also propose several ways that the IF brand could be refreshed through a broader and deeper approach to integral futures by way of a scholarly engagement with other kindred discourses. The main focus of this paper is to open out beyond the “myth-of-the-given” in relation to the notion of integral and in this way broaden and deepen possibilities for integral futures.     

Black swan events and safe havens: The role of gold in globally integrated emerging markets

There is evidence to suggest that gold acts as both a hedge and a safe haven for equity markets over recent years, and particularly during crises periods. Our work extends the recent literature on hedging and diversification roles of gold by analyzing its interaction with the stock markets of the leading emerging economies, the BRICS. While they generally exhibit a high growth rate, these economies still experience a pronounced vulnerability to external shocks, particularly to commodity price fluctuations. Using a multi-scale wavelet approach and a GARCH-based copula methodology, we mainly show evidence of: (i) the time-scale co-evolvement patterns between BRICS stock markets and gold market, with some profound regions of concentrated extreme variations; and (ii) a strong time-varying asymmetric dependence structure between those markets. These findings are essential for risk diversification and portfolio hedging strategies among the investigated markets.     

Corporate liquidity,investment and financial constraints: Implications from a multi-period model

In single period models, financially constrained firms invest more in response to increases in their net worth or interest rate cuts. We examine whether or not these results necessarily hold in a multi-period setting. We present a multi-period version of the Holmstrom and Tirole moral hazard model and show that the probability of investment (or the hurdle rate for investment) in the first period of a two-period model is non-monotonic in the level of liquid balances [Holmstrom, B., Tirole, J., 1997. Financial intermediation, loanable funds, and the real sector. Quart. J. Econ. 112 (3), 663–691. August; Holmstrom, B., Tirole, J., 1998. Private and public supply of liquidity. J. Polit. Economy 106 (1), 1–40. February; Holmstrom, B., Tirole, J., 2000. Liquidity and risk management. J. Money, Credit, Banking 32 (3), 295–319. August]. When a risk-free interest rate is introduced in the model, we show that a lower interest rate (or a downward shift or the yield curve) can lead to less current investment due to the interaction of future financial constraints and discounting of cash flows. Our results have implications for the effect of monetary policy on investment by financially constrained firms. They also address several recent empirical debates, such as the relationship between liquidity and the cash-flow sensitivity of investment, and whether or not accumulation of cash balances by Japanese firms can be consistent with the existence of financial constraints affecting investment.