经济新常态背景下的挑战与机遇——2014年度国内城商行发展述评

新常态下,受经济放缓、金融脱媒、利率市场化等多重因素的冲击,国内城商行资产规模的扩张和盈利增速的放缓也成为常态,以往20%以上的高增长已难以为继。对此,国内城商行主动加快战略转型和改革创新驱动步伐,实施业务转型和发展模式再造,重点推进组织架构改革、精细化管理、综合化经营、资本补充机制创新以及零售业务转型,与此同时,把握金融信息化发展浪潮,积极布局直销银行及互联网金融,实现新常态下的新发展。     

2013年国内城商行发展述评与2014年展望

国内经济增速继续放缓、利率市场化加速推进、互联网金融大举入侵传统银行领域成为2013年国内城商行发展面临的三大挑战。宏观经济增长红利、监管套利的发展时代已经逝去,改革红利成为2013年乃至今后很长一段时间国内城商行发展的新驱动。2013年,国内城商行继续保持平稳发展态势,规模稳步增长、市场份额进一步提升,与此同时,资产质量承压、资本补充压力进一步加大;面对转型升级的发展需求,国内城商行加快布局社区银行、坚守社区零售基础客群,发力新兴业务、多元渠道促增收。展望2014年,国内城商行将在盘活存量、优化增量的发展思路下,加快业务创新步伐、优化管理体制,为未来可持续发展奠定扎实的基础。     

经济新常态下城市商业银行经营管理对策

当前,面临我过经济发展进入新常态,全国实行供给侧改革。传统的城市商业在经济新常态的背景下,在互联网金融的冲击下,特别是网络第三方支付和手机移动支付等平台对城市商业的发展带来巨大挑战,但是,也为城商行的发展提供了新的思路和方向。本文通过分析在经济新常态背景下的城商行所面临的问题与制约其转型的因素,提出城商行转型与发展的方向。     

国内城商行2013年度财务报告分析及启示

国内主要城商行2013年度财务报告显示,在经济增速放缓、利率市场化以及金融脱媒加剧的多重压力下,城商行净利润增速大多已跌至20％左右,甚至出现个位数和负数;资产质量进一步承压,不良贷款余额及不良贷款率“双升”格局确立,拨备计提压力同步增加,城商行抗风险能力有所下降。总体来看,国内城商行发展拐点显现,经营压力持续加大。随着客户金融需求日益多元化,城商行只有以创新与转型驱动发展。才能在市场化环境下与大中型银行竞争并获得发展。     

金融新常态下我国城商行发展探析

以经济增速回落为标志的我国经济新常态催生商业银行进入规模与利润增速双双回落的金融新常态.新常态下银行加快推动经营转型已是大势所趋.城商行规模小、实力薄弱,面对新常态将面临更大的挑战,城商行必须采取措施予以积极应对.     

找准切入点 共谋新发展

<正>在新常态下,地域经济发展面临转型升级、增长放缓等难题,以作者所在地域为例,银行业也面临不良贷款双升、盈利下滑、资金压力增大等挑战。面对经济转型期金融发展的困境,辖内银行机构要抱团合作,对企业真心帮扶,特别是对有发展希望但面临暂时困难的企业做到不压贷、不断贷,切实增加有效信贷资金支持辖内经济转型发展。新常态下,改革与创新成为发展的"驱动力",各银行机构要从新常态的国际、国内以及经济、政治     

2013年度城商行业绩分析报告及启示

国内主要城商行陆续披露2013年财务报告,统计显示,在经济增速放缓、利率市场化以及融资脱媒的多重压力下,国内多数城商行净利润增速已跌至20％上下,部分城商行增速骤降至个位数、个别城商行甚至出现负增长;此外,资产质量进一步承压,不良贷款余额及不良贷款率“双升”格局确立,拨备计提压力同步增加,城商行风险抵御能力有所下降。总体来看,国内城商行步入发展拐点,经营压力持续加大。随着客户金融需求快速变化,加之跨界竞争此起彼伏,城商行只有奋起直追,以创新与转型驱动发展,方能在未来日趋激烈的同业竞争中占据一席之地。     

城商行转型发展综合症及策略探讨——“新常态”下城商行发展辨析

伴随中国经济及金融环境进入新常态,城商行面临发展的重要转折点。过去依赖宏观经济增长红利及监管制度套利,城商行取得规模及盈利水平的快速增长。然而,规模扩张过程中对批发性融资的依赖以及高同业资产配置,城商行的资产负债结构及收入结构逐渐失衡。面对资本市场快速发展及互联网金融的兴起,城商行已有的商业模式无法有效满足需求结构的趋势性转变,内生增长动力不足,城商行陷入转型发展困境。重塑业务增长模式、改变传统路径依赖,全方位强化内部管理能力、有效支持整体战略实施,是未来城商行转型发展亟需面对的重要课题。     

城商行“发展转型综合症”及策略探讨--“新常态”下城商行发展辨析

伴随着中国经济及金融环境进入新常态,城商行面临发展的重要转折点。过去依赖宏观经济增长红利及监管制度套利,城商行取得规模及盈利水平的快速增长。然而,规模扩张过程中对批发性融资的依赖以及高同业资产配置,使城商行的资产负债结构及收入结构逐渐失衡。面对资本市场快速发展及互联网金融的兴起,城商行已有的商业模式无法有效满足需求结构的趋势性转变,内生增长动力不足,陷入转型发展困境。重塑业务增长模式、改变传统路径依赖、全方位强化内部管理能力、有效支持整体战略实施,是未来城商行转型发展亟须面对的重要课题。     

城商行“发展转型综合症”及策略探讨——“新常态”下城商行发展辨析

伴随着中国经济及金融环境进入新常态,城商行面临发展的重要转折点。过去依赖宏观经济增长红利及监管制度套利,城商行取得规模及盈利水平的快速增长。然而,规模扩张过程中对批发性融资的依赖以及高同业资产配置,使城商行的资产负债结构及收入结构逐渐失衡。面对资本市场快速发展及互联网金融的兴起,城商行已有的商业模式无法有效满足需求结构的趋势性转变,内生增长动力不足,陷入转型发展困境。重塑业务增长模式、改变传统路径依赖、全方位强化内部管理能力、有效支持整体战略实施,是未来城商行转型发展亟须面对的重要课题。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:     

The China puzzle: Opportunities for accounting research

How can China achieve phenomenal economic growth despite what is considered as 'weak' institutions in market-based economies? Xu(2011) provides a framework to u...     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Income smoothing and the cost of debt

The literature on income smoothing focuses on the effect of earnings smoothing on the equity market.This paper investigates the effect of income smoothing on th...     

Aims and Scope

<正>The focus of the China Journal of Accounting Research is to publish theoretical and empirical research papers that use contemporary research methodologies to...