A simplified portfolio analysis of the long-run demand for money in Australia

The paper derives the form of a money demand equation when money is explicitly considered as one element of a limited set of financial assets. The results from estimation of the portfolio model are compared with those from the typical single equation form and are superior in a number of respects. In contrast with the traditional model the impact equations of the portfolio model provide no evidence of serial correlation or parameter instability. Systems estimation provides for a much faster speed of adjustment than is in evidence with the traditional model. Estimation by ridge regression procedures to accomodate collinearity among the regressors further enhances this speed of adjustment.     

Demand for money in developing countries: Some theoretical and empirical results

This paper examines the role of credit restraint variables in the demand for money function for developing countries where interest rates are inoperative. A simultaneous equation model is proposed to allow for the interaction between these variables and the supply of money. Statistical results indicate that credit restraint variables in the demand for money function have stronger explanatory power than either the inflation rate or the real rate of return on money. The paper also deals with partial demand adjustment and adaptive expectations mechanisms with particular reference to the existence of credit rationing and substitution between money and real assets.     

The Use of Electronic Funds Transfers to Capture the Effects of Cash Management Practices on the Demand for Demand Deposits: A Note

The rapidly increasing use of more sophisticated cash management practices is a factor influencing the demand for money that is not considered in standard models of money demand. Within the framework of an inventory theoretic model of money demand, this paper provides theoretical grounds for using the number of electronic funds transfers as an indication of increasing cash management sophistication. Specifically, the demand for demand deposits is determined from the solution of a simultaneous equation system that also determines the optimal level of cash management. Therefore, the level of cash management services influences transactions costs, implying that transactions costs are endogenous. The number of electronic funds transfers is closely linked to the level of cash management services and is therefore related to transactions costs. Models of money demand that treat transactions costs as exogenous and fixed are therefore misspecified and will not perform well when transactions costs are changing. By explicitly incorporating the changing nature of transactions costs through the use of electronic funds transfers, the problems of instability and poor predictive power associated with the demand for money in the 1970's are overcome.     

Stock prices and demand for money in China: New evidence

This paper investigates the relationship between stock prices and the real money demands for China within a cointegrated framework. This study reports two important results. First, test results reveal that a stable long-term relationship exists between broad money (M2) and its determinants including real income, foreign interest rate, and stock prices. Second, stock prices have a significant substitute (positive) effect on long-run broad-money (M2) demand and its omission can lead to serious misspecification in the money demand function in both the short- and long-run. Finally, we demonstrate that long-run income elasticity is not significantly different from unity with the inclusion of stock prices in the money demand equation.     

Investigating M3 money demand in the euro area

Euro area monetary growth has exceeded its target since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long-run money demand function. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, we are able to identify a stable long-run money demand relationship. This result is obtained when the analysis is done without the short run homogeneity restriction between money and prices. The basic equation can be improved by allowing for asymmetric adjustment. In a low inflation environment, opportunity costs of holding money have decreased. Thus, the apparent monetary overhang is reconciled within standard models.     

Money,interest, inflation and growth in Turkey

This paper estimates a two equation model of inflation and growth in Turkey over the period 1950–1977. Inflation is determined by the difference between the rates of change in nominal money supply and real money demand. The short-run growth function consists of an expectations augmented Phillips curve, to which a credit availability effect is added. Under Turkey's disequilibrium institutional interest rate and exchange control systems, the real supply of domestic credit is determined, in large part, by real money demand which is, in turn, influenced by the real deposit rate of interest. The central bank can use both the nominal money supply and the nominal deposit rate of interest as policy instruments for stabilisation purposes.     

Sectoral Money Demand and the Great Disinflation in the United States

Estimates of the welfare costs of inflation based on Bailey (1956) are typically computed using aggregate money demand models. Yet, the behavior of money demand may vary across sectors. Thus, the impact on welfare of inflation regime shifts may differ between households and firms. We specifically investigate the sectoral welfare implications of the shift from the Great Inflation to the present regime of low and stable inflation. For this purpose, we estimate different functional specifications of money demand for U.S. households and nonfinancial firms using flow‐of‐fund data covering four decades. We find that the benefits were significant for both sectors.     

Adaptive expectations,rational expectations,and money demand in hyperinflation Germany

In the recent literature Sargent and Wallace (IER, June, 1973) have estimated the demand equation for money in hyperinflation under the restriction that the adaptive formula of Phillip Cagan yields rational inflation expectations in the sense of John Muth. The present paper finds evidence to reject for the Germany case the proposition that adaptive expectations are rational. The procedure employed is basically to overfit the stochastic representation for the inflation rate implied by the ‘adaptive-is-rational’ hypothesis. The paper also puts forward and applies a two-step procedure to estimate the important money demand elasticity in hyperinflation. The procedure returns reasonable results with large estimated standard errors.     

Behavior of the money stock: Is there a puzzle?

This paper examines the factual and logical bases underlying recent proposals that the Federal Reserve should reduce the attention it attaches to the monetary aggregates and finds these arguments seriously lacking on both counts. By and large the case against the aggregates rests on the finding that some money demand functions have experienced serious difficulties in explaining recent developments. Our results suggest that the problem is not due so much to the instability in the public's asset preferences but rather to the restrictive specifications of the functions employed. Moreover, it is shown that even if the demand function for money has become less predictable, this is not sufficient to justify a reduction in the attention devoted to the aggregates. Finally, we examine the recent performance of a modified version of the St. Louis reduced-form equation for nominal income and find that the relationship that it incorporates between the growth in money and the growth in GNP has remained remarkably stable.     

International evidence on misspecification of the standard money demand equation

This paper tests the proposition that the interest rate in the standard money demand equation acts as a proxy for the expected change in interest rates. If this is true, the interest elasticity in the standard equation will depend on the expectations process for interest rates. Using cross-country data, we find that there does exist a relationship between the observed interest elasticity in the standard equation and the predictability of future interest rates from current interest rates.     

The government's revenue from money creation and the inflationary effects of a decline in the rate of growth of G.N.P.

This paper studies the inflationary consequences of an exogenous decline in the rate of growth of G.N.P. The Government's insistance on keeping its revenue from money creation unaffected results in a compensating increase in the inflation tax, due to the loss of revenue stemming from the decline in growth. It is shown that the magnitude of the necessary compensating increase in the rate of inflation depends crucially on the specification of the demand for money. Based on a Cagan type demand for money, we present the inflationary consequences of a decline in the rate of growth for Israel, six O.E.C.D. countries, and Argentina.     

开放经济下我国货币需求长期稳定性研究

本文利用我国1996—2011年的月度数据,分别使用Johansen协整检验与Engle—Granger两步法,对传统货币需求模型、开放条件下的货币需求模型以及引入制度因素的货币需求模型进行实证检验,研究货币需求的长期稳定性及各因素对货币需求的影响,建立货币需求模型,对于提高我国货币政策的调控效率具有重要意义。     

Demand and supply functions for money in Canada: Some further evidence

The demand and supply functions for money in Canada are estimated in a simultaneous-equation model format in which the supply of money is considered endogenous. The results indicate that the important determinants of the demand for money are income, short-term interest rate and lagged real cash balance variables. Wealth is an unimportant explanatory variable in money demand thus rejecting the hypothesis that an increase in outside wealth increases the demand for money. The monetary base and cash reserve ratio are important explanatory variables in the money supply function and play a direct role in monetary control.     

Money illusion,distribution effects and the household and business demands for money

This paper examines, using flow-of-funds data, the household and business demands for money. Questions explored include whether the demand for money should be expressed in nominal, real, per capita, or real per capita terms and whether distributional effects are important. In considering this latter point, we employ aggregate measures of inequality (i.e., Gini coefficients and variance of logarithms of income and business receipts) in the regression equations.     

Money,interest rates,and risk

This paper analyzes the role of the risk in the form of the volatility of open market interest rates as a factor in the demand for money. We demonstrate, using an inventory theoretic model of money demand, that increases in interest rate volatility will increase the demand for money. We then present empirical evidence that the demand for money has been influenced by alterations in the volatility of open market rates using standard specifications of the demand for money.     

结构扭曲与中国货币之谜——基于转型经济金融抑制的视角

转型经济中金融抑制的表现是对利率和汇率的管制。本文认为利率和汇率管制降低了持币成本,直接增加了货币需求,其导致的投资和对外经济结构扭曲则间接地增加了货币需求。中国的高货币速增长就是为了满足超额货币需求所致。我们利用中国1994年第1季度到2010年第2季度数据估计了M1和M2的真实余额需求的协整和误差修正方程。实证结果基本支持本文的金融抑制假说。在一个保守估计下,我们认为金融的抑制至少导致了现有的M2/GDP偏高30%。     

Short-run money demand

The conventional wisdom holds that the short-run demand for money is unstable. This paper challenges the conventional view by finding a stable demand for M1 in U.S. data from 1959 through 1993. The approach follows previous work in interpreting long-run money demand as a cointegrating relation, and it uses Goldfeld's partial-adjustment model to interpret short-run dynamics. The key innovation is the choice of the interest rate in the money demand function. Most previous work uses a short-term market rate, but this paper uses the average return on “near monies”—the savings accounts and money market mutual funds that are close substitutes for M1. This choice helps rationalize the behavior of money demand; in particular, the increase in the volatility of velocity after 1980 is explained by increased volatility in the returns on near monies.     

Commodity money inflation: theory and evidence from France in 1350–1436

This paper presents a theory of inflation in commodity money and supports it by evidence from inflationary episodes in France during the 14th and 15th centuries. The paper shows that commodity money can be inflated similarly to fiat money through repeated debasements, which act like devaluations. Furthermore, as with fiat money, demand for commodity money falls with inflation. However, at high rates of inflation demand for commodity money becomes insensitive to inflation, since commodity money has intrinsic value in addition to its transactions value. Finally, we show that anticipated stabilization reduces demand for commodity money.     

Does Bitcoin behave as a currency?: A standard monetary model approach

We derive the Bitcoin exchange rate dynamics by solving the exchange rate equation of the standard flexible-price monetary model to investigate any characteristics of Bitcoin like a currency. The dynamics is driven by an asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental shock which can be attributed to a money demand shock. A crash occurs when the exchange rate with a weakened mean-reverting force breaches a lower boundary where a smooth-pasting condition is imposed. The empirical results show the exchange rate dynamics can be calibrated according to the model, in which the mean reversion of the dynamics is positively co-integrated with the Bitcoin transaction volume indicating demand for Bitcoin; and with the risk reversals of the commodity currencies (Australian dollar and Canadian dollar) in currency option markets. The analysis shows that the Bitcoin exchange rate shares some characteristics of commodity currencies with crash risk. This suggests that Bitcoin behaves as a currency between fiat money and a crypto-commodity used for trading and investment purposes.     

Monetary disequilibria and the euro/dollar exchange rate

Although stable money demand functions are crucial for the monetary model of the exchange rate, empirical research on exchange rates and money demand is more or less disconnected. This paper tries to fill the gap for the euro/dollar exchange rate. We investigate whether monetary disequilibria provided by the empirical literature on US and European money demand functions contain useful information about exchange rate movements. Our results suggest that the empirical performance of the monetary exchange rate model improves when insights from the money demand literature are explicitly taken into account.