Africa in the 1990s and beyond: Alternative prescriptions and projections

This article examines the origins, dimensions and implications of Africa's crisis. It draws attention to the impact of historical experiences, the distortions and disarticulations of that experience, and to the coalitions, contradictions, crises and conflicts inherited at independence. It looks at postcolonial alignment and realignment of social and political forces, the crisis of accumulation and power, and the implications of the region's marginal location and role in the global division of labour and power. Calling for a need to transcend the manifestations of the African predicament, the article looks at regional and international responses to the crisis. It concludes by prescribing the need for a fundamental political restructuring, the empowerment of the people and their communities and organizations, a socially sensitive structural adjustment programme, and the recomposition of the content and context of politics and social relations.     

美国油气法捕获规则的形成与发展——兼及对中国立法的启示

美国油气法捕获规则系判例法确立的一项产权制度,从野生动物捕获规则移植而来.该规则对美国石油天然气产业发展起到了极大的促进作用,但同时也产生了过度开采、资源浪费等问题.美国各州相继通过颁布强制联营规则、井间距规则、禁止浪费规则等一系列配套立法对油气法捕获规则进行修改和限制,提高了油气开采效率,保证了油气产业的有序发展.借鉴美国油气法捕获规则的立法与司法经验,我国未来石油天然气立法应当制定油气资源矿业权重叠情形下的联合开发规则,同时应当完善石油天然气上游产业市场准入制度和油气开采监管制度.     

我国省级人大预、决算审查报告的分析

本文以17省(区、市)的预算监督审查条例、4省(区、市)6年24份预算执行情况和预算草案的审查结果报告、3省(市)15份决算草案的初步审查报告的文本作为评估对象,评估结果显示,党的十八大以来,各省份在预算审查监督的法律完善、监督机构的职能建设和能力提升、监督审查程序的规范和健全等方面,已取得了长足的发展.但总的来说,这些改革仍大多属于技术性、操作层面的改革,省级人大预算监督效力提升的成效仍然不大.人大及其常委会对预算审查监督仍只是程序性的,在预算周期的规划阶段和实施阶段所起的监督作用依然较弱.为加快人大预算监督从形式向实质转变,建议以地方试点推动预算监督实质性改革、以技术手段拓展预算监督的深度与广度、加强预算审查监督队伍建设,全面提升执行能力.     

农产品质量安全信用及评价指标体系研究

农产品质量安全影响因素识别及其信用体系建设,对于推进我国农业高质量发展具有重要意义。梳理农产品质量安全相关概念及内涵,探讨农产品质量安全信用评价原理和方法。在分析农产品质量安全信用影响因素的基础上,从农产品生产经营主体的基本素质、财务状况、信誉记录、质量控制水平、投入品管理及政治经济环境六个方面,构建了包含21个指标的评价指标体系,同时给出了相关评价标准。通过案例分析,对构建的指标体系进行应用,并检验其适用性和可行性。为减少失信行为,应当重视农产品质量安全信用体系建设,优化发展路径、聚焦监管重点,不断完善农产品质量安全信用评价指标体系。     

Oil prices and accounting profits of oil and gas companies

This paper investigates the relationship between commodity prices of crude oil, capital structure, firm size and accounting measures of firm performance using a sample of oil and gas firms from 1990 to 2008. We employ estimates based on panel least squares, a fixed effects model and a random effects model. We also use generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators by Arellano and Bond (1991) and Blundell and Bond (1998, 2000). Our findings show that crude oil prices positively and significantly impact the performance of oil and gas firms in North America using accounting measures of performance. The recent financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 negatively influenced oil prices and the financial performance of oil and gas firms. On the other hand, the earlier global crises (Asian financial crisis and 9/11) did not have a significant impact on the return on equity of oil and gas companies. Our primary contribution to the literature is a comprehensive and econometric analysis of the relation between commodity prices and accounting measures of performance oil and gas companies.     

Towards better participatory processes in technology foresight: How to link participatory foresight research to the methodological machinery of qualitative research and phenomenology?

Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not possible without qualitative analyses. Therefore, the social and psychological dimensions of reality form an important part of technology foresight. Qualitative research will be needed to understand superficial and deep structures of social realities. So called push and pull factors are always linked to social behaviour. People's relationship to the use of technologies and the utilization of technologies is a complex and not a one-dimensional or monological issue. Monological methodological approaches can be harmful and confusing in the field of participatory foresight. We can conclude that the cycles of deductive and inductive logic are needed in science and in participatory foresight studies. Experts of the FTA community must have a higher level of methodological know-how in this research field and they should use qualitative methods in multi-faceted (external and internal) ways in foresight studies. Still the qualitative parts of many studies are quite monological and these studies can be quite problematic, even confusing. More critical methodological approaches should be taken into serious consideration. As a methodological approach, the principle of triangulation should be used more in the fields of participatory foresight studies and technology foresight.The key focus of this article in the use of qualitative and phenomenological approaches in the fields of FTA and foresight. The aim of this theoretically oriented discussion is to promote the professional use of qualitative methods in foresight and FTA studies. The strength of qualitative analyses is linked to deeper understanding of social change and social patterns and structures. Actually people create and constitute the markets, networks, and crowds where technologies are applied and used.Internal systemic understanding of social realities is an important part of foresight activities, especially in participatory foresight studies. Internal and external analyses can be seen as complementary approaches, like qualitative and quantitative approaches. The use of qualitative methods is a conventional part of the research process in participatory foresight projects. A typical problem may be that the use of methods is not planned carefully enough and people are unaware of the underlying key assumptions of applied methods. Experimenting with phenomenology is not a simple task in foresight research. Therefore, the views and informative platforms expressed and presented in this article may be useful for foresight practitioners.     

金融包容的逻辑起点及体系构建——兼论新背景下金融包容的推进与应用

鉴于国内对金融排斥、普惠金融、金融包容的研究还存在诸多分歧,地理学者和金融学者对其可达性及使用性维度仍有不同理解,从学术溯源的角度,通过梳理金融包容的历史沿革和内涵演化,界定不同理念之间的区别与联系,并结合最新的数字金融、虚拟集聚背景,提出“三度”“三维”“三协调”为一体的金融包容体系。从复杂系统论的角度,创新性地将其分为金融包容的协调体系、风险管理体系、创新体系、组织体系及传导体系,并探索了主流金融范畴的扩展、格莱珉模式的思考以及传递渠道的创新等,剖析了新的研究范式的不足,为未来理论研究和实践推进提供路径及展望。     

加快建设中国特色第三支柱个人养老金制度:理论探讨与政策选择

第三支柱个人养老金是国家养老金体系的重要支柱,也是中国特色养老金融体系的有机组成部分。建立和发展个人养老金制度有利于缓解养老金领域发展不平衡不充分问题,夯实应对人口老龄化的社会财富储备。个人养老金的核心特征是个人主导和享受财税政策支持。从功能上看,个人养老金是养老金制度补充和收入补充,推动投资养老理念形成并促进资本市场完善。目前的第三支柱个人养老金试点政策在覆盖人群、税优设计和运行流程等方面存在问题,未来应统筹国家三支柱养老金体系建设,重视政府作用的发挥,制定与我国财税体制改革相适应、公平有效的财税政策,充分调动金融机构的积极性,并加强养老金融教育。     

用物联网构筑“智慧金融”

本文探讨物与物、人与人、人与物之间进行信息交换和通信的物联网概念,分析美国、欧盟、日韩和中国物联网的发展现状和未来,提出物联网从提高金融业务的效率和安全性以及金融业务管理和服务、检查交易真实性、质押物监管和定制服务、监控和管理受控人员和以及保险业的实时监测服务等方面构筑的＂智慧金融＂。     

基于文献计量的企业风险管理研究现状分析

文献信息作为科研工作者成果,反映科研工作者对某一领域的认知和规律性的探索总结,并用于指导实践.通过现存的文献信息特征可以把握国内对企业风险管理的研究现状及存在问题.文献计量是应用数学和统计学的方法,将文献信息的特征转变为数量值,定量的研究文献的分布结构,变化规律和数量关系,探讨学科的发展方向及研究热点追踪.通过应用文献计量分析方法,针对搜索的国内企业风险管理文献库,通过文献增长数量趋势,关键词分析,研究机构及作者分布情况,被引频次以及文献增长规律曲线拟合等多角度定量分析,发现国内对企业风险管理研究的热点,难点,便于科研人员和企业管理者研究和学习.     

Social vulnerability indexes as planning tools: beyond the preparedness paradigm

This article draws from the experience of the ongoing drafting of the Regional Plan of the Centre Region of Portugal, and the empirical application of the Social Vulnerability Index proposed by Susan Cutter. It consists in the construction of an index of social vulnerability to natural and technological hazards and to social risks for all the municipalities of the region. Methodologically, it extends the vulnerability analysis to technological hazards and social risks, as a more encompassing view is necessary for the elaboration of prevention and civil protection policies. The results confirm the interactive nature of social vulnerability, and they also reflect the diffuse urbanisation and industrialisation patterns that characterise Portugal. The scattered nature of social facilities and security and health infrastructures pose specific challenges to planners concerning risk prevention and mitigation, and the elaboration of effective risk communication strategies adapted to specific hazards and risks in the studied municipalities. The article concludes with some reflections on the need to revise established paradigms of disaster analysis and emphasise the importance of pre‐event planning and the social cartography of vulnerable populations for effective prevention and security policies that take into account social inequalities and citizenship rights.     

把纪律挺在前面聚焦监督执纪问责全面推进党风廉政建设和反腐败工作

本文总结了新形势下长春中心支行2015年党风廉政建设和反腐败工作取得的成绩和积累的经验：认真履行了党风廉政建设主体责任与监督责任;强化反腐败教育与廉政文化建设;落实中央八项规定推动作风建设;强化岗位（廉政）风险防控发挥风险监督管理系统作用;积极推进“三转”工作,加强纪检监察干部队伍建设。同时,本文又着重展望了2016年党风廉政建设和反腐败工作,全面把握了新一年纪检工作的主要任务和具体措施,即坚持全面从严治党、依规治党,忠诚履行党章赋予的职责,聚焦监督执纪问责,深化标本兼治,强化党内监督,把纪律和规矩挺在前面,持之以恒落实中央八项规定精神,积极实践监督执纪“四种形态”,继续保持惩治腐败高压态势,创新工作机制,建设忠诚干净担当的纪检监察队伍,不断取得党风廉政建设和反腐败工作新进展。     

我国税收与经济依存状况研究

科学解读我国税收与经济之间的依存状况具有理论和实践意义。可以通过对税收与经济依存关系的内在机理、考察税收增减状况的适宜参照系、不同因素对税收与经济依存状况的作用机理,对1997~2002年我国税收大幅度超经济增长现象的深层原因进行较为系统的分析,并据此对我国税收与经济的依存趋势进行预测。     

Mergers and acquisitions research in finance and accounting: Past,present, and future

This study presents an analysis of publication patterns and major themes in research on mergers and acquisitions in finance and accounting. We find that takeovers as mechanisms of governance, drivers of mergers, mechanisms of mergers, bank mergers, cross-border mergers, shareholder wealth effects of mergers and related events, and the role of financial experts and ownership structure form major themes of research in the finance area, while in accounting area major themes are corporate governance and accounting outcomes, predicting takeovers and their outcomes, valuation, financial reporting and takeover decisions, and financial reporting and performance.     

Future as fantasy: forgetting the flaws

This paper looks critically at the practice and relevance of future studies, from the point of view of the large poor and marginalised sections of humanity. It puts forward nine propositions on the methodological and political problems with future studies. Future studies is dominated by western, instrumental perspectives and by pro-rich and corporate concerns, and it ignores alternative cultural perspectives as well as the interests and concerns of the majority of human beings. Also, it is oriented little towards policy and praxis and, consequently, has had little impact on the course of changes in and the driving forces shaping the real world. While putting forward an agenda for futurists, the paper concludes that future studies can become more meaningful and relevant for the large mass of humanity only through a radical democratisation of political economy on the one hand and of the categories of knowledge on the other.     

Sustainability,institutionalization and the duality of structure: Contradiction and unintended consequences in the political context of an Australian water business

This paper presents the results of a longitudinal case study of an Australian public sector water business in order to examine how, and to what extent, did the institutionalization and deinstitutionalization of internal sustainable and environmental management routines, practices and procedures occur over the period 2001 to the start of 2011. It adopts the Dillard et al. framework of institutionalization which incorporates institutional theory, Weber's axes of tension and structuration theory. In 2001, the criteria for costing and financial reporting practices and the criteria for environmental regulation and management practices were competing at the economic and political economic level, the organizational field level and the organizational level. An unintended consequence of this was no accounting for environmental costs. Environmental management criteria and practices were characterized by compliance with EPA regulatory requirements whilst financial management and costing criteria and practices were characterized by New Public Management criteria. Subsequent to 2001, an unintended consequence of the establishment of separate legislative and regulatory bodies has been the institutionalization of competing legitimating criteria with regard to water conservation, externalities, environmental regulation and financial reporting and costing. Within this context, the organizational field and the organizational level of the individual water business has been characterized by the development of new organizational practices and routines with regard to water conservation as well as unintended consequences and decoupling. At all three levels, the ontological security of agents has been evident in the development of new criteria and practices for sustainable development, whilst the routine procedures of the respective management systems were a source of ontological security to the relevant agents.     

企业内控评价体系框架构建研究

内部控制作为提升现代企业经营业绩和管理水平的重要工具,不仅关系到企业的质量和自身发展,而且关系到广大投资者的利益和资本市场的健康发展。通过对企业内部各组织机构内部控制执行的过程监控和结果评价,查找和揭示企业内部控制的缺陷和薄弱环节,并提出整改意见和建议,从而促进企业内部控制制度的进一步加强和完善。本文借鉴ICEM模型框架和COSO五要素报告框架的基础上,基于企业内部控制指引角度构建了内部控制评价系统,提出了企业内部控制评价的一种新的方法体系,为统一内部控制自我评价制度和注册会计师核实评价制度,完善我国上市公司内部控制评价及信息披露制度,推进我国企业内部控制建设和内部控制规范化,具有较强的理论意义和现实意义。     

中国金融发展与TFP关联关系实证研究——基于技术创新和制度创新的中介效应分析

金融发展表现为规模的扩张、结构的优化和效率的提升。金融发展一方面通过资金支持、信息甄别、分散风险和创新激励来促进技术创新,另一方面通过改变成本收益结构、政府偏好、政府选择集和诱发社会认知转变来促进制度创新,进而通过技术和制度创新促进TFP增长。以1992~2011年中国的实际来看,金融规模和金融效率通过制度创新和技术创新间接影响TFP增长,但金融结构与TFP增长无显著关系。在金融发展与TFP的关联机理中技术和制度创新存在不完全的中介效应。     

货币政策和宏观审慎政策的关联及启示——基于英格兰银行的经验

时至今日,宏观审慎政策在内涵、工具和框架等方面快速发展,不仅政策目标更加清晰,工具类型更加丰富,相关理论基础也在不断完善。作为危机后形成的新政策框架,宏观审慎政策在工具有效性、作用机制、政策框架设计及与货币政策的关系方面都还有待深入研究。特别是在制度框架中,如何考虑宏观审慎政策与货币政策的关联,合理设计政策决策框架均已成为关键。对中国而言,系统风险识别、监测与分析更加复杂、困难,需要对宏观审慎政策开展更加精细、深入研究,尤其应吸收借鉴国际经验,建立、完善适合中国的宏观审慎政策框架。基于此,本文首先对宏观审慎政策的理论基础、政策目标及工具等进行系统综述,而后从两类政策关联中涉及的三个重要问题出发,着重分析宏观审慎政策与货币政策之间关系,并分别从组织架构设计、货币政策框架改革、金融政策框架设计等方面,系统介绍了英格兰银行在货币政策和宏观审慎政策框架改革的经验,重点阐述英格兰银行如何实现理论发展与制度设计的较好融合。最后,给出我国宏观审慎政策发展的若干启示和政策建议。     

基于征信视角的中小企业融资研究

本文归纳分析了我国中小企业融资难的原因主要为中小企业内外部信息不对称,提出发展中小企业征信体系能有效缓解中小企业融资困境。提出完善我国中小企业征信体系建设路径：完善中小企业征信数据库、发展规范化的中小企业征信机构、强化中小企业征信行业监管、建立中小企业内部信用管理制度等。