Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper examines empirical contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume, stock returns and return volatility in China's four stock exchanges and across these markets. We find that trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of the markets. As for the cross-market causal relationship in China's stock markets, there is evidence of a feedback relationship in returns between Shanghai A and Shenzhen B stocks, and between Shanghai B and Shenzhen B stocks. Shanghai B return helps predict the return of Shenzhen A stocks. Shanghai A volume Granger-causes return of Shenzhen B. Shenzhen B volume helps predict the return of Shanghai B stocks. This paper also investigates the causal relationship among these three variables between China's stock markets and the US stock market and between China and Hong Kong. We find that US return helps predict returns of Shanghai A and Shanghai B stocks. US and Hong Kong volumes do not Granger-cause either return or volatility in China's stock markets. In short, information contained in returns, volatility, and volume from financial markets in the US and Hong Kong has very weak predictive power for Chinese financial market variables.     

Stock market automation and the transmission of information between spot and futures markets

This paper examines the impact of automated trading in the stock market on the information transmission between the stock and futures markets. This issue is of particular relevance given the trend of exchanges to introduce automated trading. We focus on the Australian market as its institutional features and recent changes in trading systems have created an ideal environment for examining this issue. We initially find evidence of a substantial bidirectional information flow between the stock and futures markets. The paper then focuses on the period surrounding the move by the Australian stock exchange to automated trading. After the introduction of automated trading, we find a significant change in the information transfer process between the two markets. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that automated trading results in a richer and more timely information set which accelerates the price discovery process. However, the evidence is not overwhelming and alternative explanations exist.     

卖空机制能够约束内部人减持吗？——基于融资融券制度的经验证据

本文以我国放松卖空管制为视角,探究其对内部人减持的影响。研究表明,卖空机制能够抑制企业内部人减持行为。机制分析发现,卖空对内部人减持的抑制作用是通过缓解股权高溢价实现的。进一步研究表明,卖空能够抑制大股东、董事以及管理层减持,但对监事减持无影响;卖空能够降低内部人减持的获利程度,并且在内部人减持动机更大时,对内部人减持的抑制作用更强;卖空通过约束内部人减持提升了股票定价效率,还有助于降低内部人增持行为。本文的研究结论丰富了卖空和内部人减持领域的文献,并对政府部门完善制度设计具有启示意义。     

Illiquidity,return and risk in G7 stock markets: Interdependencies and spillovers

Trading activity in G7 stock markets reflects not only the macroeconomic and financial impact of these G7 economies in international economic growth, but also their financial interdependence. While this nexus of major stock markets has been explored in terms of volatility and return spillovers, there has been no combined analysis of return, volatility and illiquidity spillovers. We study illiquidity spillovers because they are transmissions of trading activity and, thereof, transmissions of information and market sentiment. We find that the dynamics of international stock markets are characterized by persistent illiquidity and also that illiquidity shocks are significantly correlated across markets. Furthermore, we discover Granger causal associations between risk, return and illiquidity across G7 stock market and also within each stock market. Our findings bear significance for the regulation of international financial markets and also for international portfolio diversification.     

Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms

In many developing countries with emerging stock markets, banksare fearful of stock market development because they think thatstock markets will reduce the volume of their business. Thisarticle empirically analyzes the effects of stock market developmenton firms' financing choices using data from thirty developingand industrial countries from 1980 to 1991. The results implythat initial improvements in the functioning of a developingstock market produce a higher debt-equity ratio for firms andthus more business for banks. In stock markets that are alreadydeveloped, further development leads to a substitution of equityfor debt financing. By contrast, in developing stock markets,large firms become more levered as the stock market develops,whereas small firms do not appear to be significantly affectedby stock market development.     

市场摩擦对特质风险溢价的影响效应——基于A股主板市场的实证分析

与国外发达市场相比,我国A股主板市场的市场摩擦因素对市场微观结构和资产定价的影响更大。在防范和化解系统性风险的过程中,进一步分析市场摩擦如何作用于特质风险定价效应的问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文通过采用多维市场摩擦指标来代理信息不对称、交易成本、买卖限制、卖空限制、风险对冲和外部冲击,检验中国股市特质风险和预期收益率的关系,并判断出市场摩擦因素间的差异性影响机制。回归发现,市场摩擦和特质风险因子(特质波动率和特质偏度)都具有定价效应。各维度市场摩擦因素降低了股票流动性,进而增强了特质波动率的负向定价效应,部分解释了“特质波动率之谜”,但市场摩擦对特质偏度因子溢价的影响较为微弱。同时,基于特质波动率和特质偏度因子的投资策略能够产生超越CAPM、三因子和五因子模型的绝对收益,并印证了市场摩擦对特质风险因子绝对收益的影响作用。     

Information transfer,microstmctures and intraday price return spikes

Previous research has identified overnight public information as the cause of higher opening returns and mean reversion in security markets. This paper tests this hypothesis by using an intervention and transfer function time series model to filter out the dynamic effects of an overnight information set on the opening, and subsequent, intraday AOI stock and SPI futures intraday price returns. A further research objective was to analyse the process by which information is transferred into prices and whether there is a differential impact across stock and futures markets. It was determined that the information contained in the overnight US stock market had: (i) a differential impact on the Australian stock and futures market, and (ii) after filtering out the impact of overnight information, a significant reversal tendency remained in both markets after opening. Further analysis supported the conclusion that price spikes at opening were not wholly related to overnight information. Other possible explanations, such as different trading mechanisms, did not provide a satisfactory explanation. Overall, it appears that the uncertainty participants face at the beginning of a trading session may induce a number of subtle market reactions (both rational and irrational), in markets with different microstmctures and trading clientele.     

Strategic insider trading in foreign exchange markets

Inside traders are well-documented to leverage private idiosyncratic information for personal gain in centralized exchanges such as stock markets. Evidence is rare, however, for decentralized and fragmented over-the-counter markets with microstructure properties that make them particularly vulnerable to stealth trading. The 2015 criminal conviction of Hill and Kamay for foreign exchange insider trading is the first in over-the-counter markets. We analyze their actions to show the complex, strategic decision-making of insiders even in opaque markets where they run a low risk of detection and prosecution: they trade when the market is most sensitive to local information, carefully choose and time their trades to minimize the risk of confounding information disclosures that may affect their profits, as well as act during high noise trading to mask their trades. Our results are consistent with evidence on insider trading in stock markets. We highlight the limitations of regulatory control in over-the-counter markets where technology-based surveillance methods are ineffective, while reinforcing the importance of whistleblowers in detecting and preventing insider trading.     

An analysis of trading strategies in eleven European stock markets

Abstract

In recent years, the validity of the weak form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been called into question as several studies have uncovered evidence that technical trading rules have predictive ability with respect to both developed and emerging stock market indices. This study analyses the forecasting power of 2 of the most popular trading rules using index data for a selection of 11 European stock markets over the January 1991 to December 2000 period. The findings indicate that the emerging markets included in this paper are informationally inefficient; these markets displayed some degree of predictability in their share returns, although the developed markets did not. Furthermore, the results point to large differences in the performance of the rules examined; while small size filters consistently outperformed the buy-and-hold strategy in the emerging markets examined even after the consideration of transaction costs, the performance of the moving average rules was erratic and varied dramatically from market to market.     

Volume,volatility and information linkages in the stock and option markets

This paper examines the relationship between option trading activity and stock market volatility. Although the option market is uniquely suited for trading on volatility information, there is little analysis on how trading activity in this market is linked to stock price volatility. The bulk of the discussion tends to focus on whether trading activity in the stock market is informative about stock volatility. To analyze the information in option trading activity for stock market volatility, a sample of 15 stocks with the highest option trading volume is selected. For each stock, it is noted that the trading activities in the put and call option markets have significant explanatory power for stock market volatility. In addition, the results indicate that the call option trading activity has a stronger impact on stock volatility compared with that of the put options. Our results demonstrate that information and sentiment in the option market is useful for the estimation of stock market volatility. Also, the significance of the effects of option trading activity on stock price volatility is observed to be comparable to that of stock market trading activity. Furthermore, the persistence and asymmetric effects in the volatility of some stocks tend to disappear once option trading activity is taken into account.     

Futures trading volume as a determinant of prices in different momentum phases

Recent studies contend that trading volume has predictive power for ex ante stock prices, particularly small stocks that do not react quickly to macroeconomic information. This study postulates that a significant amount of macro-information that flows on to stock markets is derived from derivative markets. We examine the impact of short-term futures trading volume and prices on cash stock prices using a case study of 15-min data from the Australian stock index futures market which reports actual trading volume. After applying vector error correction modelling (VECM), variance decomposition and impulse functions, we conclude that futures prices provide a short-term information lead to stock prices that dominates trading volume effects. We also observe asymmetric changes in the impact of trading volume between bull and bear price momentum phases and after large trading volume shocks. These results suggest that, in future, studies on trading volume should control for the cross-correlation impact from derivative prices and the differential impact of trading phases.     

跨期环境下的巨灾风险分担：一个比较分析

资本市场通过衍生品交易增强的管理风险能力,大大改善了其跨期风险分担功能。作为风险中介的再保险公司通过储备流动性的方式,在跨期风险分担方面具有比较优势,而传统的资本市场缺乏衍生品交易,更多地体现为跨地风险分担的功能。在资本市场的竞争压力下,直保公司和再保险公司都面临融资和风险转移问题,如果通过新的资本市场工具,将资产负债表上的成熟产品通过证券化的形式转移到资本市场上,那么资本市场将是有效率的。     

全球股票市场交易费用变动趋势研究

各国证券交易所为提高市场质量和增强国际竞争力,进行了股票市场交易费用结构与费率的频繁调整。本文首先总结了美国、英国、日本、香港等国家和地区交易所现行交易费用的结构特征,并以纽约证券交易所和伦敦证券交易所为案例估算了交易费率的调整比率。其次,本文运用2002年至2010年期间主要海外证券交易所的财务数据和市场数据,分析交易费用变动与交易所经营业绩的互动关系。最后,我们对欧美市场交易费用的大幅下调进行了成因分析,并探讨我国证券交易所内外部环境及经营特点与海外市场存在的差异,提出相关启示和思考。     

动量交易策略及我国股票市场实证分析

动量交易策略指的是事先针对股票收益及交易量设定过滤规则,一旦股票收益或者股票收益和交易量同时满足过滤规则就买入或卖出股票的交易策略。动量交易策略的理论基础是行为金融学。国外投资者已经成功地在实践中应用了该策略。我国股票市场是否存在动量效应,还未形成统一的结论。在总结国内外学者研究方法的基础上,利用目前可用的数据,对我国股票市场在中期条件下动量交易策略的适用性进行了实证研究。但得出的结论并不支持存在动量效应。     

Locals,foreigners, and multi-market trading of equities: Intraday evidence from Thailand

We study stock market orders and trades in a developing country, Thailand, where foreign ownership limits partially segment local and foreign investors into two distinct markets. Some foreigners forgo voting rights and distributions to trade on the “local board”, while some locals forgo such benefits and pay a price premium to trade on the “foreign board”. Regardless of nationality, these cross-market traders typically submit orders when liquidity is high, fill orders at relatively beneficial prices, exploit patterns in stock prices across markets, display profitable holding-period returns, and enhance price discovery. This suggests that skilled, informed trading that affects market quality does not depend on trader nationality.     

Short-term Dynamics in the Cyprus Stock Exchange

Abstract

This paper investigates the short-term dynamics of stock returns in an emerging stock market namely, the Cyprus Stock Exchange (CYSE). Stock returns are modelled as conditionally heteroscedastic processes with time-dependent serial correlation. The conditional variance follows an EGARCH process, while for the conditional mean three nonlinear specifications are tested, namely: (a) the LeBaron exponential autoregressive model; (b) the Sentana and Wadhwani positive feedback trading model; and finally (c) a model that nests both (a) and (b). There is an inverse relationship between volatility and autocorrelation consistent with the findings from several other stock markets, including the US. This pattern could be the manifestation of a certain form of noise trading namely positive feedback trading or, momentum trading strategies. There is little evidence that market declines are followed with higher volatility than market advances, the so-called ‘leverage effect’, that has been observed in almost all developed stock markets. In out of sample forecasts, the nonlinear specifications provide better results in terms of forecasting both first and second moments of the distribution of returns.     

Internet search intensity,liquidity and returns in emerging markets

Using a sample of listed companies in the Vietnam stock market from 2013 to 2018, this paper investigates the linkage between Internet search intenseness and stock returns and trading volume. The empirical results confirm the “price pressure hypothesis” that search intensity is positively associated with subsequent stock returns and trading volume. It also finds that the positive effects on stock returns are not temporary but remain for the long term although some reversals occur. The results show that the effects of search intensity on stock returns are higher for large stocks than for small stocks. The findings also reveal that stocks that attract more attention from the public are exposed to higher market risk. These findings have not been documented in the literature so they enrich the information on the relationship between Internet search intenseness and stock market returns, especially for emerging markets where Internet user numbers are sharply increasing.     

Stock exchange competition in a simple model of capital market equilibrium

This paper uses a simple model of mean-variance capital markets equilibrium with proportional transactions costs to analyze the competition of stock markets for investors. We assume that equity trading is costly and endogenize transactions costs as variables strategically influenced by stock exchanges. Among other things, the model predicts that increasing financial market correlation leads to a decrease of transaction costs, an increase in cross-border trading activity, and to a decrease in the home bias of international equity flows. These predictions are consistent with the recent evolution of international stock markets.     

Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability

Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option-to-stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.     

Credit derivatives and stock return synchronicity

The role of credit default swaps (CDS) in the 2008 financial crisis has been widely debated among regulators, investors, and researchers. While CDS were blamed for destabilizing the financial system, they remain effective tools for hedging credit risk, especially for major banks, and produce positive informational externalities to market participants. This paper examines whether the introduction of CDS enhances the amount of firm-specific information impounded in stock prices. We use stock return synchronicity to measure the amount of firm-specific information reflected in stock prices, with more firm-specific information being associated with a lower level of synchronicity. We find that a firm’s stock return synchronicity decreases after the commencement of CDS trading. This finding is robust to different model specifications, synchronicity measures, and endogeneity controlling methodologies. Furthermore, the decrease in stock return synchronicity is more pronounced for CDS firms with higher credit risk. Overall, our evidence supports the positive role of CDS in improving informativeness of stock prices.