Conceptualization of the real economy and Islamic finance: Transformation beyond the asset‐link rhetoric

A key factor behind the chronic crises in modern economies is the growing dominance of financialization and the resulting disconnect between the real economy and the financial sector, to which conventional financial industry is a key contributor. In contrast, Islamic finance claims to be real‐economy‐oriented, as all transactions must be asset‐linked (asset‐backed or asset‐based). However, is Islamic Finance based on proper conceptualization of the real economy? What is the real economy and its dynamics? How Islamic finance is interfaced with the real economy? In this article, the claimed real‐economy‐orientation is examined by presenting a conceptualization of the real economy and then evaluating the related discourse accordingly. The analysis presented, especially for noneconomists, exposes a serious gap between the claims about Islamic finance and the real economy it is supposed to advance. Appropriate conceptualization of the real economy can help the industry to be relevant and effective for broader socioeconomic transformation.     

Green supply chain management – food for thought?

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the impact of green supply chain management (GSCM) practices on the performance of UK food retail small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). A quantitative approach using a non-probability sampling of 84 participants was employed. Based on the literature review, five hypotheses were developed and tested using the partial least square-structural equation modeling (SEM-Smart PLS 2.03) approach. The reviewed literature revealed that key internal drivers (ID) and external pressures (EP) stimulate organizations to initiate GSCM practices in UK food retail SMEs. Though empirical findings strongly supported the statement that ID influence GSCM practices, they did not show a significant relationship between EP and GSCM practices. Literature also suggests that practicing GSCM can help improve the efficiency, brand image (BI) and profitability, and thus improve the overall firm performance which is also empirically proved. This study helps enrich existing theories on SCM and organizational performance. As to practical impact, this study should facilitate SMEs in GSCM practices and thus help green the economy. While the findings of this study have limited generalisability as the data were collected from UK SMEs only and the sample size was comparatively small, this research establishes a foundation for further study in this domain.     

Political instability and inflation in Pakistan

This study investigates the effects of political instability on inflation in Pakistan. Applying the Generalized Method of Moments technique and using data from 1951 to 2007, we examine this link through two different models. The results of the ‘monetary’ model suggest that the effects of monetary determinants are rather marginal and that they depend upon the political environment of Pakistan. The ‘nonmonetary’ model's findings explicitly establish a positive association between political instability and inflation. This is further confirmed through analysis based on interactive dummies that reveal political instability significantly leading to high (above average) inflation.     

Risk management of precious metals

This paper examines volatility and correlation dynamics in price returns of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and explores the corresponding risk management implications for market risk and hedging. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the downside market risk associated with investments in precious metals, and to design optimal risk management strategies. We compute the VaR for major precious metals using the calibrated RiskMetrics, different GARCH models, and the semi-parametric Filtered Historical Simulation approach. The best approach for estimating VaR based on conditional and unconditional statistical tests is documented. The economic importance of the results is highlighted by assessing the daily capital charges from the estimated VaRs.     

Managerial attitudes to social responsibility: A comparative study in India and Britain

Changes in the understanding of the relationship between business and society have led to increased interest in and discussion of the notion of corporate social responsibility.This paper offers an empirical analysis of the perceptions of top executives in the West Midlands, U.K., and in Delhi, District Ghaziabad, India, of the notion of corporate social responsibility. Organisational changes and involvement in social action programmes, and problems of implementing and monitoring Social Responsibility in two cultures, India and Britain, were explored.The results of this study are compared with results obtained from studies on American companies and some significant similarities and differences are noted.Finally, some of the implications of the acceptance of the relevance of social responsibility to industry and the social involvement of industry are discussed. A. Farooq Khan is Associate Professor at the Faculty of Commerce of the Aligarh Muslim University. He has been awarded the Common-Wealth Scholarship (1975–1978) and he visited Hungary under the Indo-Hungarian Cultural Exchange Programme (1984–1985). He has published over thirty papers and two books: Business and Society, S. Chand & Co. Ramnagar, New Delhi, 1985; and Social Responsibility and Management, Faculty of Commerce Publication, Aligarh, 1983.Adrian Atkinson is Managing Director of Human Factor Consultants (UK) Ltd.     

Model Selection for Monetary Policy Analysis: How Important is Empirical Validity?*

We investigate the economic significance of trading off empirical validity of models against other desirable model properties. Our investigation is based on three alternative econometric systems of the supply side, in a model that can be used to discuss optimal monetary policy in Norway. Our results caution against compromising empirical validity when selecting a model for policy analysis. We also find large costs from basing policies on the robust model, or on a suite of models, even when it contains the valid model. This confirms an important role for econometric modelling and evaluation in model choice for policy analysis.     

Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope

This paper provides real-time evidence on the frequency, size, duration and economic significance of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market. We investigate deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency. The analysis unveils that: i) short-lived violations of CIP arise; ii) the size of CIP violations can be economically significant; iii) their duration is, on average, high enough to allow agents to exploit them, but low enough to explain why such opportunities have gone undetected in much previous research using data at lower frequency.     

PPP in the medium run: The case of Norway

Existing studies generally reject purchasing power parity (PPP) on data sets from countries that have been affected by large real shocks, including Norway. However, we offer strong evidence of PPP between Norway and its trading partners during the post-Bretton Woods period, in which the Norwegian economy has experienced numerous real shocks such as discoveries of large petroleum reserves and oil price shocks. In particular, the behavior of the Norwegian real and nominal exchange rates appears remarkably consistent with the PPP theory. Moreover, convergence towards PPP is relatively rapid; the half-life of a deviation from parity is just about 1.5 years. We show that such deviations are primarily eliminated by adjustments in the nominal exchange rate and we offer some explanations for the relatively rapid convergence towards PPP.     

Peginterferon beta-1a versus other self-injectable disease-modifying therapies in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in Scotland: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Aims: Peginterferon beta-1a 125?mcg administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks, a new disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), was approved in January 2015 by the Scottish Medicines Consortium. This study assesses long-term clinical and economic outcomes of peginterferon beta-1a compared with other self-injectable DMTs (interferon beta-1a [22?mcg, 30?mcg, and 44?mcg], interferon beta-1b, and glatiramer acetate 20?mg) in the treatment of RRMS, from the National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective in Scotland.

Methods: A previously published, validated Markov cohort model was adapted for this analysis. The model estimates changes in patient disability, occurrence of relapses, and other adverse events, and translates them into quality-adjusted life years and costs. Natural history data came from the ADVANCE trial of peginterferon beta-1a, the London Ontario (Canada) database, and a large population-based MS survey in the UK. The comparative efficacy of each DMT vs placebo was obtained from a network meta-analysis. Costs (2015 British Pounds) were obtained from public databases and literature. Clinical and economic outcomes were projected over 30 years and discounted at 3.5% per year.

Results: Over 30 years, peginterferon beta-1a was dominant compared with interferon beta-1a (22, 30, and 44?mcg), and interferon beta-1b, and cost-effective compared with glatiramer acetate 20?mg. Results were most sensitive to variations in each DMT’s efficacy and acquisition costs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results.

Limitations: The impact of improved adherence with peginterferon beta-1a on clinical and economic outcomes and the impact of subsequent DMTs after treatment discontinuation were not considered. Oral and infused DMTs were not included as comparators.

Conclusion Long-term treatment with peginterferon beta-1a improves clinical outcomes, while its cost profile makes it either dominant or cost-effective compared with other self-injectable DMTs for the treatment of RRMS in Scotland.     

Estimating Volatility Persistence in Oil Prices Under Structural Breaks

Policy makers and financial market participants are interested in knowing how shocks affect the volatility of oil prices over time. We accurately compute the volatility persistence by incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks into a GARCH model. Contrary to previous findings, we find that oil shocks dissipate very quickly but have a strong initial impact. Understanding this behavior is not only important for derivative valuation and hedging decisions but for broader financial markets and the overall economy, for which there are significant consequences.