Modeling the dynamics of inflation compensation

This paper investigates the relationship between short-term and long-term inflation expectations using daily data on inflation compensation derived from the term structure of real and nominal interest rates. We use a flexible econometric model which allows us to uncover this relationship in a data-based manner. We relate our findings to the issue of whether inflation expectations are anchored, unmoored or contained. Our empirical results indicate no support for either unmoored or firmly anchored inflation expectations. Most evidence indicates that inflation expectations are contained.     

The Impact of Eco-regions in Austria on Sustainable Rural Livelihoods

This paper provides a closer look into the concept of eco-regions in Austria. The idea behind the eco-region is to merge organic farming and rural development into a territorial strategy. The actors proposing this are farmers as well as various stakeholders in regional development. A survey of current manifestations of eco-regions in Austria provides an overview and a base for a preliminary classification. It also indicates the eco-region concept as a potential answer to individual problem situations. The ‘Eco-region National Park Hohe Tauern’ serves as a specific case to assess the impact of this concept using the sustainable rural livelihood (SRL) framework. The case study proves that the concept of eco-regions delivers a range of improvements in the livelihood of small organic farms in less favoured regions. Moreover it supports the forging of new alliances, which can extend the principles of sustainability inherent to organic farming to other actors and sectors in the region. Thus it provides the framework for a territorial application of the principles of organic farming. But the case study also reveals potential dangers, especially from powerful market partners who use the concept for their purposes, dominating further development and creating new dependencies. Finally some general conclusions on the preconditions necessary to establish eco-regions are presented.     

Outsourcing in the German Hospital Sector

Being under pressure both from demographic changes in most industrialised countries and increasingly scarce financial resources in social security, in the last decade the German hospital sector tried to find some relief in outsourcing of services not belonging to its core competences like IT services, catering and cleaning. However, not all the hopes connected with this strategy have been fulfilled. This paper takes stock of the current situation of outsourcing in the German hospital sector mainly by the size of the institution. It describes the patterns of outsourcing in the sector, looks at the reasons for outsourcing, and describes the experiences with it of the hospitals on the one hand and the service providers on the other. We conclude by expressing our expectations concerning the foreseeable future of outsourcing in the German hospital sector.     

Wissenschaftsformate des deutschen Fernsehens im internationalen Vergleich

This article explores factors which influence volume and structure of science programming by German TV broadcasters, focusing on influences of the national channel pattern. Based on a comparison of the German market with ten others, it identifies three factors as relevant especially for the large volume of science programming in Germany:

1. The comparably large segmentation of the public TV market.
2. The comparably high number of mid-sized commercial channels with market shares between 5 and 10 %.
3. The comparably low dependency of public service channels on advertising income.

From a European perspective, Germany together with Finland and Sweden has market structures which sustain a large volume and high variety of science programme offers.     

An interest rate peg might be better than you think

Active interest rate policy is frequently recommended based on its merits in reducing macroeconomic volatility and being a simple device. Yet, it might be outperformed by an even simpler policy. A peg can be welfare-enhancing and can uniquely be implemented.     

Coming attraction

Francesca Cornelli, Richard D'Aveni, Andrew Kakabadse, Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Markus Reitzig, Fons Trompenaars and Kim Warren share their latest research.     

The effect of IMF lending on the probability of sovereign debt crises

This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We find that IMF programs significantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5–2 percentage points. These results cannot be attributed to endogeneity bias as they are supported by specifications that explain sovereign defaults and program participation simultaneously. Furthermore, IMF programs turn out to be especially detrimental to fiscal solvency when the Fund distributes its resources to countries whose economic fundamentals are already weak. Our evidence is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that debtor moral hazard is most likely to occur in these circumstances. Other explanations that point to the effects of debt dilution and the possibility of IMF triggered debt runs, however, are also possible.