External shocks,consumption-smoothing and capital mobility in India: evidence from an intertemporal optimization approach

We examine the solvency of India’s current account (CA) in the post-liberalization period using intertemporal optimization approach to the CA. Using quarterly data ranging from 1996Q1 to 2014Q2, we estimate a benchmark consumption-smoothing model and an extended model that incorporates external shocks. Overall, we find that the predicted optimal CA in both the models can track the actual CA movements and the extended model performs better over the benchmark model. Further, we also find that the optimal CA is more volatile than the actual CA which implies that the capital flows have been less than optimal and thus makes an interesting case for further liberalization of the capital account. Our findings suggest that policies aimed at further liberalization of capital flows will allow larger CA deficits to achieve higher economic growth since it will help agents to further smoothen their consumption without worrying about risks associated with insolvency.     

The evolution of preferences and competition: a rationalization of Veblen's theory of invidious comparisons

Abstract. We examine how preferences evolve by natural selection in a competitive environment similar to that characterizing much of our evolutionary past. We find that the evolutionarily stable preferences in this context exhibit a concern not only for absolute payoffs but also for relative payoffs, and that this intensifies the degree of competition relative to what obtains when players consider only absolute payoffs. We argue that this has consequences for the equilibrium population size. We argue that the premise of this analysis is consistent with the available anthropological evidence, and that the prediction is broadly consistent with the findings of experimental game theory. JEL Classification: C70 Evolution des préférences et concurrence: une rationalisation de la théorie des comparaisons désobligeantes de Veblen. Les auteurs examinent comment les préférences évoluent par sélection naturelle dans un environnement concurrentiel qui ressemble à celui qui a caractérisé notre passéévolutionnaire, c’est‐à‐dire, un environnement de chasseurs et de cueilleurs. On découvre que les préférences évolutionnairement stables dans ce contexte révèlent un intérêt non seulement pour les résultats en termes absolus mais aussi pour les résultats en termes relatifs, et que cela intensifie le degré de concurrence par rapport à ce qui se passerait si les joueurs prenaient en compte seulement les résultats en termes absolus. En travaillant contre l’espèce si l’on peut dire, la sélection naturelle des préférences réduit les niveaux d’équilibre des populations en deçà de ce qui aurait prévalu si les préférences n’avaient pas évolué. Le postulat de base sur lequel cette analyse se fonde est compatible avec les résultats des travaux anthropologiques et les prédictions sont compatibles avec les résultats des travaux en théorie des jeux expérimentale.     

Agriculture,innovational ability,and dynamic comparative advantage of LDCs

The goal of this paper is twofold: (1) to model a process of development based on the notion that the engine of growth is the generation of new ideas by skilled individuals, and (2) to explore the role of agricultural productivity growth in such a process. The key ingredients of our model are: preferences consistent with Engel's Law, and the asymmetry arising from there being a greater scope in industry than in agriculture for incremental innovation.     

The Costs of Issuing Preferred Stock

U.S. firms commonly use preferred stocks to raise external capital. Yet this hybrid security's issuance costs and offer yields have not been previously examined in a systematic manner. We analyze a sample of 3,042 U.S. preferred stocks issued between 1980 and 1999. We find that convertible issues, which are riskier than straight issues, entail higher gross spreads and other direct expenses. Scale, credit rating, and industry effects influence gross spreads and issuance costs. We also compare preferred stocks yields with various bellwether bond yields. Our results support the tax‐based argument that suggests that yields on preferred stocks should be lower than comparable risky bonds.     

Price Dynamics and Information Flows in Strategically-Linked Debt Instruments: The NOB and MOB Constituents

We examine information flows between the constituents of the NOB (notes-over-bonds) and MOB (municipals-over-bonds) futures spreads. The results suggest a bicausal relationship between notes and bonds and a unicausal relationship from bonds to municipals. Shocks in the bond market have a large impact on the municipal and note markets, whereas shocks in the municipal or note markets have a smaller impact on the bond market. Volatility spillover from bonds to notes and municipals is detected. We also find significant volatility persistence in all three markets. Spread trades are found to have an asymmetric influence on notes and municipal futures variance.     

Debt problems of developing countries

Much concern has been expressed in recent years over the mounting debt burden of developing countries. The increasing amounts of loans and their hardening terms have in many cases led to external debt servicing problems of alarming magnitudes. The following contribution addresses itself to evaluating these problems.     

Impact of Socio-Economic factors on Consumption Expenditure through Public Distribution System in rural India

Impact of public distribution system (PDS) on poverty in rural India is established; however, how the households from different socio-economic backgrounds are procuring through PDS, relatively, needs study. With this objective, influence of factors like poverty status, family size, social group, religion, gender and occupation on probability of household incurring consumption expenditure through PDS has been studied by using unit level data of consumer expenditure survey of National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) and multinomial logistic regression technique. The study is restricted to food grains rice and wheat and reveals that probability of consumption, through PDS, of minorities, economically and socially backward classes are higher, in general.

     

Cybersecurity breaches and cash holdings: Spillover effect

This paper shows that firms significantly increase cash holdings after they have experienced a cybersecurity attack, and this behavior persists for years. A cyberattack increases cash holdings from a base level of 23% of assets to 26.87%. Similar firms, defined by industry and geographical proximity also increase their cash holdings. Suppliers of attacked firms are also affected. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the detrimental effects of a cybersecurity breach are not isolated to the attacked firms, and peer firms are quick to follow in taking precaution.