Which Characteristics Predict the Survival of Insolvent Firms? An SME Reorganization Prediction Model

The negative impact of insolvency, especially in small and medium enterprises, informs the objective of this paper: to study the characteristics of bankrupt firms to achieve a preventive diagnosis for reorganization by means of artificial intelligence (AI) methodologies such as rough set and PART methods. The AI models obtained show not only the key variables to predict insolvency, but also their relations and the critical values. Using only five firm characteristics (sector, size, number of shareholdings, return on assets, and cash ratio), our model could reduce delays and costs, since it is able to predict which firms will undergo reorganization or liquidation before the legal procedure.     

Expectations,network effects and timing of technology adoption: some empirical evidence from a sample of SMEs in Italy

We provide evidence on the influence of expectations and network effects on the timing of technological adoption. By considering a sample of SMEs operating in Italy, we focus on the determinants of their decision to adopt Fast Ethernet, a communication standard for Local Area Networks (LANs). We find that both expectations and network effects significantly affect the timing of adoption. In particular, price expectations generally tend to delay adoption and (indirect) network effects in the form of backward compatibility as well as informational spillovers tend to foster adoption. Firm size also matters.

Incremental costs associated with myocardial infarction and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: an overview for economic modeling

Objective:

To identify cost estimates related to myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) for use in economic models.

Methods:

A systematic literature review was conducted. Electronic databases and conference abstracts were screened against inclusion criteria, which included studies performed in patients who had T2DM before experiencing an MI or stroke. Primary cost studies and economic models were included. Costs were converted to 2012 pounds sterling.

Results:

Fifty-four studies were identified: 13 primary cost studies and 41 economic evaluations using secondary sources for complication costs. Primary studies provided costs from 10 countries. Estimates for a fatal event ranged from £2482–£5222 for MI and from £4900–£6694 for stroke. Costs for the year a non-fatal event occurred ranged from £5071–£29,249 for MI and from £5171–£38,732 for stroke. Annual follow-up costs ranged from £945–£1616 for an MI and from £4704–£12,926 for a stroke. Economic evaluations from 12 countries were identified, and costs of complications showed similar variability to the primary studies.

Discussion:

The costs identified within primary studies varied between and within countries. Many studies used costs estimated in studies not specific to patients with T2DM. Data gaps included a detailed breakdown of resource use, which affected the ability to compare data across countries.

Conclusions:

In the development of economic models for patients with T2DM, the use of accurate estimates of costs associated with MI and stroke is important. When country-specific costs are not available, clear justification for the choice of estimates should be provided.     

Economic Analysis for the UK National Ecosystem Assessment: Synthesis and Scenario Valuation of Changes in Ecosystem Services

We combine natural science modelling and valuation techniques to present economic analyses of a variety of land use change scenarios generated for the UK National Ecosystem Assessment. Specifically, the agricultural, greenhouse gas, recreational and urban greenspace impacts of the envisioned land use changes are valued. Particular attention is given to the incorporation of spatial variation in the natural environment and to addressing issues such as biodiversity impacts where reliable values are not available. Results show that the incorporation of ecosystem services and their values within analyses can substantially change decisions.     

Monotone dependence in graphical models for multivariate Markov chains

We show that a deeper insight into the relations among marginal processes of a multivariate Markov chain can be gained by testing hypotheses of Granger noncausality, contemporaneous independence and monotone dependence. Granger noncausality and contemporaneous independence conditions are read off a mixed graph, and the dependence of an univariate component of the chain on its parents—according to the graph terminology—is described in terms of stochastic dominance criteria. The examined hypotheses are proven to be equivalent to equality and inequality constraints on some parameters of a multivariate logistic model for the transition probabilities. The introduced hypotheses are tested on real categorical time series.     

The Role of Beta and Size in the Cross-Section of European Stock Returns

This paper examines the ability of beta and size to explain cross-sectional variation in average returns in 12 European countries. We find that average stock returns are positively related to beta and negatively related to firm size. The beta premium is in part due to the fact that high beta countries outperform low beta countries. Within countries high beta stocks outperform low beta stocks only in January, not in other months. We reject the hypothesis that differences in average returns on size- and beta-sorted portfolios can be explained by market risk and exposure to the excess return of small over large stocks (SMB). Consistent with recent US evidence, we find that after controlling for size, there is no association between average returns and exposure to SMB.     

Restaurant Prices and the Mexican Peso

Of prime interest to border economies is exchange rate performance and currency valuation. Commonly used tools for this task include purchasing power parity (PPP) nominal benchmarks, and inflation-adjusted trade-weighted indices. The latter have the advantage of relying on commonly available international macroeconomic data but overlook microeeonomic information that may offer additional insight to issues surrounding exchange rate policy debates. Other efforts have utilized small samples of international product price comparisons to shed light on currency valuation questions. This paper develops one such tool by repeated sampling of prices charged for identical menu items sold at restaurant franchises in El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua. A battery of statistical tests indicate that the international currency value of the peso consistently differed from the exchange rate implied by the border region restaurant price ratios in 1997, 1998, and 1999.     

Imperfect Competition in Auction Designs

We study the competition between two owners of identical goods who wish to sell them to a pool of potential buyers. The sellers compete simultaneously setting reserve prices for their second price sealed bid auctions. Upon observing the set reserve prices, the buyers decide simultaneously in which auction to bid. We show that this game has (at least) one equilibrium and that all equilibria are inefficient: reserve prices are not driven to zero (cost). We also discuss where and why the parallel between optimal auction design and optimal pricing in the case of monopoly breaks down for oligopoly.