CEO turnover, firm performance, and enterprise reform in China: Evidence from micro data

In this paper, we use unique data on China's listed firms from 1998 to 2002 to show that CEO turnover is significantly and inversely related to firm performance, although the magnitude of the relationship is modest. In addition, we find that this turnover-performance link is weaker for listed firms that are still controlled by the state and those that have a relatively weak non-state controlling shareholder. In contrast, the appointment of independent directors enhances the turnover-performance link. Moreover, the listing suspension mechanism, adopted by China's securities regulatory agency, appears to be effective in improving the turnover-performance tie. Finally, listed firms with CEOs holding additional positions among the controlling shareholders have a weaker turnover-performance link. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 796–817.     

Choice of exchange rate regime and currency zones

We investigate the choice of exchange rate regimes in different currency zones (the US dollar, Euro and the CFA zones), and geographic regions (Latin America and Caribbean, East Asia and Pacific, Europe, core Europe, and the CFA countries). We control for country and regional heterogeneity, time dummies, endogeneity and perform various robustness checks. Results from regional analysis substantially differ from the aggregate analysis despite controlling for random effects. Even at the regional level controlling for currency zones affects our findings. Regional results are generally robust to regime measurement, and sample changes (number of observations).     

Can margin traders predict future stock returns in Japan?

A growing body of literature suggests that investor sentiment affects stock prices both at the firm level and at the market level. This study examines the relationship between investor behavior and stock returns focusing on Japanese margin transactions using weekly data from 1994 to 2003. Margin trading is dominated by individual investors in Japan. In analysis at the firm level, we find a significant cross-sectional relationship between margin buying and stock returns. Both market-level and firm-level analyses show that margin buying traders follow herding behavior. They seem to follow positive feedback trading behavior for small-firm stocks and negative feedback trading behavior for large firm stocks. Our results show that information about margin buying helps predict future stock returns, especially for small-firm stocks at short horizons. The predictive power does not diminish even after controlling for firm size and liquidity.     

Lobbying and tax competition in an oligopolistic industry: a reverse home-market effect

This paper studies tax competition between two asymmetrical countries for an oligopolistic industry with many firms. Each government sets its tax rate strategically to maximize the weighted sum of residents’ welfare and political contributions by owners of firms. It is shown that if the governments care deeply about contributions and trade costs are low, the small country attracts a more than proportionate share of firms by setting a lower tax rate. The well-known home-market effect, which states that countries with a larger market attract a more-than-proportionate share of firms, may be reversed as a result of tax competition by politically interested governments.     

A Discrete-Time Clark-Ocone Formula for Poisson Functionals

In this paper, we establish a discrete-time version of Clark(-Ocone-Haussmann) formula for Poisson functionals. The formula is applied to the estimation of “hedging error”.     

Do collective bargaining institutions crowd out discussion and implementation of firm‐related training programs? Evidence from Japan

The paper empirically examines labor‐management communication concerning in‐house training programs and its relation to the actual on‐ and off‐the‐job training policy and wage structure. Using governmental datasets from Japan, we study how different labor‐management communication institutions may affect the training interests of employers and employees differently. We classify these institutions in terms of whether they have a legal (i.e. statutory) foundation (‘de jure’) or not (‘de facto’). We find that collective bargaining, with legal grounds, may crowd out employees’ willingness to communicate about training. However, the existence of ‘de facto’ communication channels such as joint labor‐management councils or shop floor committees is positively correlated with both on‐ and off‐the‐job of training. At the same time, the existence of unions is positively correlated with the steepness of wage profiles for mid‐career workers, which is consistent with the fact that employers and employees assume a long‐term relationship. Thus, we show that a multi‐tiered structure of labor‐management communication, together with a long‐term orientation toward the employment relationship, contributes to strengthen employees’ voice in training matters.     

Can Allowing to Trade Permits Enhance Welfare in Mixed Oligopoly?

We compare the effects of tradable emission permits (TEP) and non-tradable emission permits (NTEP) in a mixed oligopoly, where public firms and private firms compete in a product market. If all technologies and initial endowments of emission permits are symmetric among public and private firms and if the emission constraint is exogenous and binding, social welfare is greater (resp. smaller) under TEP than under NTEP when the weight of social welfare in each public firm's objective function and the degree of convexity of the production cost function and that of the abatement cost function are small (resp. large).     

Corporate restructuring in Japan: Who monitors the monitor?

Peek and Rosengren [Peek, J., Rosengren, E., 2005. Unnatural selection: Perverse incentives and the misallocation of credit in Japan. American Economic Review 95, 1144–1166] showed that, when the bubble economy era ended, regulatory forbearance and perverse incentives allowed Japanese banks to engage extensively in evergreening. This is the first comprehensive study to empirically analyze the economics of private debt restructurings of financially distressed companies in Japan, where the corporate monitoring mechanism is not market based but large-stakeholder based – typically, banks and affiliated companies. These stakeholders are expected to efficiently resolve potential bankruptcy or collapse with better information resulting from long-term relationships with the distressed firms. Our study, however, finds that private restructurings led by them failed because of delays in implementing fundamental solutions. Forbearance in addressing the needs of distressed firms demonstrates the weakness of such stakeholders in instituting discipline, hence the need for a system to “monitor the monitor”.     

Price,quality, and reputation: evidence from an online field experiment

We examine the link between price, quality, seller claims, and seller reputation in Internet auctions. After purchasing actual baseball cards and having them professionally graded, we find that some buyers in the online graded market are misled by incredible claims of quality. They pay higher prices but do not receive better quality and, in fact, are defrauded more often. Online seller reputation is effective for identifying good‐faith sellers. But conditional on completed auctions, reputable sellers do not provide better quality. Evidence also suggests that high‐claim sellers target less‐experienced buyers. We attribute these patterns to two loopholes in the eBay rating system. We benefited from the comments of Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Thomadsen, John Shea, Dan Vincent, David Reiley, Larry Ausubel, Peter Cramton, V. Joseph Hotz, Jeff Smith, Jimmy Chan, Vincent Crawford, Mark Duggan, and attendees at numerous seminars and conferences. We are particularly grateful to Seth Sanders and John List for their constructive advice at the early stage of the research, to Timothy Bresnahan, Rachel Kranton, and Thomas Hubbard for their detailed suggestions in reshaping earlier versions, and to Editor Ariel Pakes and two anonymous referees for their careful readings. Special thanks to eight friends who acted as our agents in purchasing baseball cards in retail markets, and to numerous sports card store owners who shared their insights on the sportscard industry. Excellent research assistance from Randy Alexander Moore and Krzysztof Fizyta is gratefully acknowledged. Any remaining errors are ours.     

The role of uncertainty in the term structure of interest rates: A GARCH-ATSM approach

This article examines the roles of uncertainties regarding various macro-variables in determining risk premiums of bond yields. We develop a multivariate GARCH-VAR to quantify uncertainties regarding inflation, real activities and monetary policy as time-varying conditional variances. We jointly estimate the multivariate GARCH and no-arbitrage bond pricing equations using a maximum likelihood method. The results indicate that the inflation uncertainty is the largest contributor to the dynamics of long-term yields since the 1980s, while the monetary policy uncertainty also plays noticeable roles.