The rationality and efficacy of decisions under uncertainty and the value of an experiment

Summary A decision maker faces a known prior distribution over payoff relevant states. We compare the expected utility of this individual under two scenarios. In the first, the decision maker makes a choice without further information. In the second, the decision maker has access to an experiment before choosing an action. However, the decision maker does not know the true joint distribution over states and messages. The value of the experiment as measured by the difference in the two utility levels can be negative as well as positive. We give a condition which is necessary and sufficient for the experiment to be valuable in our sense, for any decision problem.An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title Noisy Bayes Updating and the Value of Information. We have gained from the comments of Stephen Coate, John Geanakoplos, Larry Samuelson, Timothy Van Zandt and seminar participants at Harvard Business School, Princeton, Boston University, the international conference on game theory at Stony Brook 1992 and the Winter meeting of the Econometric Society at Anaheim 1993. The first author received support for this project from NSF grant #SES-9308515 and a University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation Grant.     

Information,market power,and price volatility

We consider demand function competition with a finite number of agents and private information. We show that any degree of market power can arise in the unique equilibrium under an information structure that is arbitrarily close to complete information. Regardless of the number of agents and the correlation of payoff shocks, market power may be arbitrarily close to zero (the competitive outcome) or arbitrarily large (so there is no trade). By contrast, price volatility is always lower than the variance of the aggregate shock across all information structures. Alternative trading mechanisms lead to very distinct bounds as a comparison with Cournot competition establishes.     

Firm‐specific human capital investments as a signal of general value: Revisiting assumptions about human capital and how it is managed

Research summary : Prior scholarship has assumed that firm‐specific and general human capital can be analyzed separately. This article argues that, in some settings, this is not the case because prior firm‐specific human capital investments can be a market signal of an individual's willingness and ability to make such investments in the future. As such, the willingness and ability to make firm‐specific investments is a type of general human capital that links firm‐specific and general human capital in important ways. The article develops theory about these investments, market signals, and value appropriation. Then, the article examines implications for human resource management and several important questions in the field of strategic management, including theories of the firm and microfoundations of competitive advantage. Managerial summary : While managers don't often use the terms firm‐specific and general skills, they certainly recognize that investments employees make in their skill sets are more or less relevant to a specific firm. For instance, investing in specific relationships within a firm or learning a firm's proprietary software would be considered firm‐specific investments. While such skills may seem relevant only to the particular firm in which they were invested, these investments may also send valuable signals to competing firms that such employees are willing and able to make similar investments elsewhere. Hence, managers should be interested in determining if a potential hire has made prior firm‐specific investments to help them know whether that person might be likely to make such investments in his or her future place of employment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Policy Consequences of Multiple Equilibria and the Indeterminacy of Economic Outcomes in a Boundedly Rational World: Closing the System with Non-Economic Variables1

In the conventional economic wisdom, the notion of unique equilibria that are efficient and Pareto optimal dominates the modeling discourse. Hebert Simon proposed an alternative analytical framework where the notion of multiple and sustainable equilibria is critical. Multiple equilibrium is the crucial stylized fact of economic life that requires better understanding and modeling. Of particular significance, Simon touched on the importance of institutions and differential power relationships in affecting economic outcomes. But this modeling approach was not well developed by Simon. Following from his contributions, further develop the notion of multiple equilibria especially in the realm of production with an emphasis on x-efficiency theory. I bring to bear the importance of institutional parameters (including power relationships), culture, norms, ethics, and moral sentiments to the determination of economic outcomes. In the model developed here, boundedly rational decision-makers’ choices are contextualized and constrained by complex environmental factors. No one choice is either inevitable or economically efficient. A multiplicity of outcomes is possible and sustainable inclusive of those that are suboptimal. Much depends on individual preferences and institutional design. This has significant implication for institutional design and policy.     

Accounting for Gender in a Study of the Motivation-Involvement Relationship

ABSTRACT

The effects of gender on involvement in high-risk recreation have received limited research attention despite mounting evidence suggesting the learned interactions between people and places likely vary for men and women. The purpose of this study was to provide insights into how gender influenced the motivation-involvement relationship among whitewater recreationists on a Wild and Scenic River in California. Our results revealed the motivations of Risk, Escape, Learning, and Achievement/Stimulation positively influenced involvement in rafting activities. Although gender did not influence all dimensions of involvement, we found that identity expression varied between subgroups. Specifically, men were more likely to ascribe meaning to rafting than women because this activity allowed them to affirm and express their individual character. The implications emanating from this study advance theoretical understanding of the factors that influence enduring involvement and inform natural resource management decisions about maintaining the desired benefits of activities sought by nature-based recreationists.     

Opening up the black box: a UK case study of top managers’ attitudes to their performance related pay

This paper examines the attitudes of the top managers within one large financial services organization in the UK to fixed and variable components of their compensation package. The rationale for performance-related pay for senior managers is to align their interests with those of the shareholders, but little is known about the views of top managers on the effectiveness of such incentives. The results suggest that the design of effective bonus systems is not just a technical issue: perceptions of market fairness with respect to the compensation package and the clear communication of goals are important in getting senior managers to focus on shareholder interests.     

The organization of the future: Unity of marketing and strategy

Marketing and strategy, while once diverse activities and entities, are moving ever closer together—in this paper it is speculated that they may someday become one. This is in response to changing business environments, and to the emergence of new organizational forms. However, a more fundamental force may be the simple recognition that without relationships there is no need for strategy, and that relationships are fundamental to marketing.     

Federal capital expenditures and budget deficits: Gross national product and labor implications

The issue of separating capital from operating expenditures has been largely ignored in discussions of the U.S. Federal Government's deficit. This paper attempts to overcome this void by conducting a simulation experiment designed to assess the macroeconomic consequences of separating capital from current expenditures under several alternative balanced budget rules and financing arrangements. The alternatives considered are directly related to management accounting issues and thus the purpose of this paper can be seen as compatible with the literature on the relationship between accounting techniques and economic analyses. The results of the study reaffirm the need for federal capital investment planning.