Modern Monetary Theory: The Right Compass for Decision-Making

In the November/December 2021 issue of Intereconomics, Françoise Drumetz and Christian Pfister examine Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and approach it from the policy consequences that would follow. This paper is a reply to Drumetz and Pfister. It restates the core of MMT and offers some suggestions for central banks. Theories are explanations of what we see, and MMT describes money creation and destruction. Hence, MMT cannot be and is not a political manifesto. In contrast to most other theories of money, MMT is falsifiable in its core statements, which are based on a balance sheet approach to macroeconomics. Since many central banks already educate the public about the creation of modern money through bank lending, it would be most welcome if they would do the same for the creation of modern money through government spending. Here, MMT and central bankers can find common ground to move forward and leave the theory of loanable funds and that of the money multiplier behind.

     

Debt Relief as a Last Resort for the Lender of Last Resort?

The coronavirus crisis has led to a sharp increase in the debt-to-GDP ratios of the euro area member states. Without external support, access to the capital market could be seriously threatened in the medium term for Italy, but also for other member states. While the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, which is designed as a monetary policy instrument, is regarded by some as a violation of the prohibition of monetary financing, the Next Generation EU recovery fund is likely to direct the fundamental structures of the European Union towards a fiscal union with considerable redistribution elements. This article analyses an alternative strategy, namely debt relief by the European System of Central Banks through an EU debt agency. Such a scheme would be possible without amending the EU treaties and would avoid negative equity at the central banks. The question is under what circumstances would this approach be suitable and proportionate?

     

Many a little makes a mickle: Why do consumers negatively react to sequential price disclosure?

Drip pricing (DP) is distinct from partitioned pricing as it sequentially discloses surcharges to consumers. Critics see DP as a deceptive pricing tactic because it obscures the final price of an offer. We examine the effects of the timing of the final price disclosure and the number of sequentially presented surcharges on consumers' attention to the final price and, ultimately, perceived price fairness. In an eye‐tracking study with 225 participants, we find that the sequential (vs. up‐front) disclosure of the final price lowers perceived price fairness by increasing consumers' attention to the final price, in particular, when the number of surcharges is high. In addition, the sequential disclosure of the final price lowers perceived price fairness because of higher perceived price complexity and lower pricing transparency perceptions. The findings suggest that firms need to be aware of both attentional and cognitive effects of the final price disclosure when designing DP.     

Decoupling and Contagion: The Special Case of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis

This paper demonstrates that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis constitutes a special case in the contagion literature with general implications. Perfectly correlated bond markets imply that contagion can only occur if there is a decoupling to lower correlation levels with increased idiosyncratic shocks leading to more severe but less systemic spillovers. This theoretical prediction is fully supported by the empirical analysis. We also show that dynamic coexceedance estimates provide a more robust and more general picture of contagion than correlation‐based tests. Coexceedances identify only one major incidence of contagion that affected five periphery Eurozone countries in May 2010 and coincided with flight to quality from the periphery to the core and the 2010 “flash crash” in US equity markets.     

How career plateau beliefs and leader interpersonal unfairness harm job performance in dysfunctional organizational settings

Building on social exchange theory and attribution theory, this study unpacks the relationship between employees' perceptions of organizational politics and job performance, considering the mediating effect of career plateau beliefs and the moderating effect of leader interpersonal unfairness. The findings provide empirical support for the theoretical predictions. An important reason for which perceptions of dysfunctional organizational politics reduce job performance is that employees develop beliefs that opportunities for their career development are limited. This mediating role of career plateau beliefs is particularly salient to the extent that employees are exposed to organizational leaders who treat them with disrespect. Organizations can mitigate the risk that highly politicized decision-making processes lead to negative performance outcomes by stimulating fair interpersonal relationships.     

Information,market power,and price volatility

We consider demand function competition with a finite number of agents and private information. We show that any degree of market power can arise in the unique equilibrium under an information structure that is arbitrarily close to complete information. Regardless of the number of agents and the correlation of payoff shocks, market power may be arbitrarily close to zero (the competitive outcome) or arbitrarily large (so there is no trade). By contrast, price volatility is always lower than the variance of the aggregate shock across all information structures. Alternative trading mechanisms lead to very distinct bounds as a comparison with Cournot competition establishes.     

ANFA — National Money Creation as an Existential Threat to the Currency Union?

The recent publication of the previously secret Agreement on Net Financial Assets (ANFA) directed the public’s attention to the possibility that national central banks could create money through purchases of securities on their own account. This paper provides an overview of the legal foundations for ANFA and shows the varying extent to which the member countries use these regulations. What are the interests, risks and consequences for the countries in crisis and the currency union as a whole? Is the ECB properly monitoring ANFA purchases? Could money creation via ANFA act as an explosive device for the currency union?     

Energy efficiency and household behavior: the rebound effect in the residential sector

This article investigates the rebound effect in residential heating, using a sample of 563,000 households in the Netherlands. Using instrumental variable and fixed‐effects approaches, we address potential endogeneity concerns. The results show a rebound effect of 26.7% among homeowners, and 41.3% among tenants. We corroborate the findings through a quasiexperimental analysis, using a large retrofit subsidy program. We also document significant heterogeneity in the rebound effect, determined by household wealth and income, and the actual energy use intensity. The findings in this article confirm the important role of household behavior in determining the outcomes of energy efficiency improvement programs.     

The bond event study methodology since 1974

In the spirit of methodology reviews for stock event studies, like the one prepared by Binder (Rev Quant Financ Account 11:111–137, 1998), this paper discusses the development of the event study methodology for corporate bonds since its first application with Katz (J Financ 29:551–559, 1974). The motivation to conduct this review stems from two sources: First, the methodology utilized for stocks cannot simply be applied to bonds, as bonds present several features that strongly distinguish them from stocks. An erroneous model could lead to false conclusions about the impact of new information on a firm’s debt. Second, the availability of new sources for bond data enables the application of bond event studies for an increasing number of research frameworks. Thus, future research ought to be interested in the selection of the proper methodology. Consequently, this paper illustrates past and present event study methods utilized to calculate abnormal bond returns and reviews the applied parametric and non-parametric test statistics. Besides, insight on how the availability of corporate bond data has evolved through the last four decades, as well as the impact on prevailing methodology is provided. Altogether, this paper provides a first extensive snapshot of the current bond event study methodology and offers guidance for future research.     

On the multiplicity of option prices under CEV with positive elasticity of variance

The discounted stock price under the Constant Elasticity of Variance model is not a martingale when the elasticity of variance is positive. Two expressions for the European call price then arise, namely the price for which put-call parity holds and the price that represents the lowest cost of replicating the call option’s payoffs. The greeks of European put and call prices are derived and it is shown that the greeks of the risk-neutral call can substantially differ from standard results. For instance, the relation between the call price and variance may become non-monotonic. Such unfamiliar behavior then might yield option-based tests for the potential presence of a bubble in the underlying stock price.