Hedging performance of shrimp futures contracts with multiple deliverable grades

The performance of the black tiger and white shrimp futures contracts traded in the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) is considered. These two futures contracts have suffered low trader participation[fn100] since their inception despite the underlying multibillion-dollar cash shrimp market. The article tries to find answers for such lack of interest in the context of the multiple deliverable category character of both contracts. In particular, the hedging effectiveness and the adequacy of the premiums/discounts are measured for the various shrimp size categories traded in each contract. The analyses indicate that the hedging effectiveness of both contracts is relatively modest. Part of the explanation for the performance of the contracts resides in high deliverable category exchange option values, which stem from volatility in the price differentials between size categories. The fixed premiums/discounts are not able to provide a remedy to the alternation in the cheapest to deliver category. There is also a liquidity problem that could result from the peculiarities of seafood trade. It is concluded that the lack of trader interest may be influenced by initial high deliverable category exchange option values. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 957–990, 1999     

Risk measures in strategic management research: auld lang syne?

Risk is an integral component of strategic management decisions and often appears as an element of empirical studies reported in the strategic management literature. Recent methodological research in the financial economics and management science literatures has, however, raised serious questions about the strategic management literature’s two most widely used measures of firm and business‐level risk: beta (or its derivatives) from the Capital Asset Pricing Model and simple variance (or its variants). This research reviews risk studies published in leading management journals in the past 15 years and summarizes the recent methodological findings in the adjacent literatures. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of risk in strategic management and assess alternative measures of risk and conclude with a discussion of directions for future strategy research. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Management control of complex,mission-critical processes

Because the failure of complex, mission-critical systems—such as certain process control and manufacturing operations—can be exceptionally costly to an organization, appropriate management control of these systems is imperative. This paper presents a theory of management control of complex systems that is the potential basis for an intelligent DSS, which would be capable of supporting human agents monitoring complex systems. The theory is derived from field studies of agent decision making under procedural guidance, and it focuses on the most crucial—and interesting—aspect of agent behavior, i.e. the decision to deviate from a procedure when the procedure is considered detrimental to the achievement of organizational goals. The theory is instantiated in a computer model of the agents' decision processes. The computer model in turn embeds a simulation of the agents' situation and goal assessment processes that produce procedural non-compliance. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Good Apples,Bad Apples: Sorting Among Chinese Companies Traded in the U.S.

Committing financial fraud is a serious breach of business ethics. However, there are few large scale studies of financial fraud, which involve ethical considerations. In this study, we investigate the pervasive financial scandals, which by the end of 2012 involved more than a third of the US-listed Chinese companies. Based on a sample of 262 US-listed Chinese companies, we analyze factors that differentiate between firms that commit financial fraud and those that do not. We find that firms more predisposed to unethical behavior, due to their low regional social trust in the home country and low respect for regulations and laws as proxied by political connections, are more likely to commit accounting and financial fraud. They take advantage of low hurdles for listing via reverse mergers and avoid third-party monitoring through poor governance and auditors. Finally, we find evidence, after these scandals, of non-fraudulent firms differentiating themselves from the fraudulent firms by sending costly signals such as insiders purchasing shares, increasing dividends, and going private.     

Simulated Attention-Tracking Methodologies: An Examination of Measurement Efficacy

This study introduces and examines a simulated attention-tracking methodology as an emerging technique to improve the study of in-store shopper behavior and decision making. To assess the viability of this new methodology, we examine its efficacy in producing consumer behavior data consistent with results predicted by the marketing literature. Empirical data across five grocery categories are used to examine the influence of personal, product, and situational differences on external information search. Findings show that the attention-tracking methodology is able to demonstrate expected results in almost all cases. The methodology is also able to provide a more complete view of external information search through tracing the observed search behavior preceding decision making. This proof of methodology responds directly to calls in the marketing and retailing literature to test new and emerging methodologies in support of research on in-store marketing and shopper behavior. Findings also provide managers with a methodology to examine the actual impact of marketing actions intended to capture shoppers’ attention at the retail shelf and to influence behavior.     

The first export order: a marketing innovation revisited

This study reports on an investigation into what lies behind a firm's first export order and revisits the questions posed in the classic article by Simmonds and Smith [(1968). British Journal of Marketing, 2, 93–100]. It concentrates on risk/reward considerations in decision-making. Interviews were undertaken with owner/managers who were the key decision-makers in 10 newly internationalising UK start-up firms, that is, in their first year of operation, in order to avoid recollections in respect of hindsight. The findings highlight that a variety of factors can affect the decision of owner/managers in small firms to start their internationalisation path. Decisions are made in the context of perceived risk/reward considerations regarding exploiting various opportunities; for example, what are considered to be affordable losses against respective owner/manager's objectives and experience. The contribution of the study is that it employs an effectuation lens in respect of the first export decision.