Predicting future purchases with the Poisson log-normal model

The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been widely used in marketing for modeling purchase frequency counts, particularly in packaged goods contexts. A key managerially relevant use of this model is Conditional Trend Analysis (CTA)—a method of benchmarking future sales utilizing the NBD conditional expectation. CTA allows brand managers to identify whether the sales change in a second period is accounted for by previous non-, light, or heavy buyers of the brand. Although a useful tool, the conditional prediction of the NBD suffers from a bias: it under predicts what the period-one non-buyer class will do in period two and over predicts the sales contribution of existing buyers. In addition, the NBD's assumption of a gamma-distributed mean purchase rate lacks theoretical support—it is not possible to explain why a gamma distribution should hold. This paper therefore proposes an alternative model using a log-normal distribution in place of the gamma distribution, hence creating a Poisson log-normal (PLN) distribution. The PLN distribution has a stronger theoretical grounding than the NBD as it has a natural interpretation relying on the central limit theorem. Empirical analysis of brands in multiple categories shows that the PLN distribution gives better predictions than the NBD.     

Three books,two movements,one story

These three books take different approaches to analysing the transformative potential of the Landless Workers Movement (MST) in Brazil. Vergara‐Camus' book also examines the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN). Carter solicited essays from numerous specialists and sees his book as contributing to existing efforts to overcome inequality. Mészáros emphasizes the influence of power relations on the law, determining that it takes an organized pressure group such as the MST to ensure that authorities implement policies that challenge the status quo. Vergara‐Camus' grassroots approach, which involved periods of living with peasant families, concludes that the MST's strategies for building alternative, autonomous rural communities is more realistic – more universalistic – than that of the Zapatistas, whose military tactics tend to reinforce the group's isolation in the forests of Mexico's southernmost state. The review evaluates these arguments, the authors and their evidence from the perspective of a researcher experienced with the objects studied.     

Cross-cultural competence in the context of NGOs: bridging the gap between ‘knowing’ and ‘doing’

Abstract

International human resource management research in non-governmental organisations (NGOs) is scarce and it predominantly focuses on the recruitment and retention of volunteers. The context of NGOs is different from conventional for-profit international business settings with different kinds of challenges, especially in terms of providing appropriate training on managing multi-cultural teams and working with local project partners and communities. The literature also tends to focus on expatriate perspective and not on a host country perspective. We address this gap by examining how project managers and hosts experience cross-cultural issues on overseas assignments. We study volunteer project managers leading international and local youth volunteers during the Raleigh International programme in Malaysia. We use a qualitative methodology and data collected at 3 case locations via participant observation during 120 days contact with the respondents as well as interviews and surveys. We propose the CPACE (Curiosity, Passion, Adaptability, Communication and Empathy) framework describing competences needed in cross-cultural encounters and based on respondents’ actions as well as their words and it is relevant to a NGO context. The framework is intended to lay the foundation for future research and in particular to demonstrate the need for cross-cultural competence to be more grounded in particular contexts.     

Consumers as researchers – innovative experiences in UK National Health Service Research

Consumer involvement is an established priority in UK health‐ and social‐care service development and research. To date, little has been published describing the process of consumer involvement and assessing ‘consumers’ contributions to research. This paper provides a practical account of the effective incorporation of consumers into a research team, and outlines the extent to which they can enhance the research cycle; from project development and conduct, through data analysis and interpretation, to dissemination. Salient points are illustrated using the example of their collaboration in a research project. Of particular note were consumers' contributions to the development of an ethically enhanced, more robust project design, and enriched data interpretation, which may not have resulted had consumers not been an integral part of the research team.     

Flexible Working Practices In the Public,Not-For-Profit and Commercial Leisure Sectors In SCotland

Public sector leisure managers in the UK have been struggling, since the extension of compulsory competitive tendering to leisure management in 1989, to reconcile the conflicts between becoming more consumer led and satisfying the needs of the ‘recreationally deprived’. Rationalization has ensured that a fundamental priority for managers has been the introduction of more cost-effective working practices. This article examines the diversity in employment practices across the three sectors of the leisure industry, that is, the public, not-for-profit and private sectors. The case study evidence presented found clear differences between the sectors. Although managers in not-for-profit leisure facilities have more freedom to use greater flexibility in employment practices as compared with their public sector counterparts, they are still somewhat constrained by having to meet the social objectives set by their Board of Directors. Private sector managers were found to be providing the highest proportion of full-time jobs, although they offered lower conditions of employment. This was made possible by the funding certainties created by regular monthly/annual customer memberships.     

Kalecki on money and finance

It is argued that Kalecki had a greater appreciation of the role of the monetary sector than has been generally recognized, and that Kalecki presented ideas which can be seen as now embedded in the structuralist post Keynesian analysis of endogenous money and in the circuitist approach. Six key features of Kalecki's monetary analysis are identified. The paper outlines Kalecki's dismissal of the ‘Pigou effect’ and the ‘Keynes effect’, and then discussion the relationship between the ‘principle of increasing risk’ and the nature of the supply of credit. It discusses interest determination in Kalecki's writings and the manner in which he distinguished different types of money.     

The impact of SARS on China's human resources: implications for the labour market and level of unemployment in the service sector in Beijing,Guangzhou and Shanghai

In this paper, we examine the effects of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) on China's human resources, its labour-market and its level of employment and unemployment, looking specifically at what was one of its economically most vulnerable points, the hotel industry. The paper hypothesizes that the greatest impact would be on human resources in the service-industries and on particular sub-sectors, such as employment in hotels, located in three main cities in the PRC, in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai, catering to both overseas as well as domestic tourism. It tentatively concludes that the almost dramatic demand and supply ‘shocks’ may have directly affected both the demand for and the supply of labour in the sub-sector, with discernable employment consequences.