Leveraging purchase regularity for predicting customer behavior the easy way

The valuation of future customer activity is a mainstay of any organization seeking to efficiently manage its customer portfolio. In the area of customer-base analytics, the ongoing race for predictive power has yielded a large corpus of research to assist managers in this respect. Approaches in the tradition of stochastic models have been particularly successful because they rely only on easy-to-compute key metrics and integrate them within a parsimonious probability-modeling framework. Recent advances in this field have demonstrated that incorporating the timing regularity of past purchases can improve predictive accuracy relative to purely recency/frequency-based approaches. This paper expands that idea and introduces generalizations of a well-established probability model, the BG/NBD (Fader et al., 2005a), by replacing the exponential with a more flexible Erlang-k interarrival timing process. The resulting model variants are capable of leveraging regularity while retaining almost the same level of data requirements and algorithmic efficiency. Using extensive simulation studies and six data sets covering a wide range of empirical settings the authors demonstrate substantial improvements in predictive accuracy against the baseline models and performance gains close to or on par with a more complex model alternative. The availability of efficient and easily accessible implementations of the new model variants in the R-package BTYDplus allows marketing analysts to apply them in large-scale scenarios of data-rich environments on a continuous basis.     

Determinants and Value of Enterprise Risk Management: Empirical Evidence From the Literature

The development of an enterprise risk management (ERM) program enables companies to manage corporate risks in a holistic manner as opposed to the silo‐based perspective in traditional risk management frameworks. One main question in this regard is what factors drive the implementation of an ERM system in companies and whether ERM programs can actually create value once implemented. This article addresses these questions by conducting a comparative assessment of empirical evidence from the literature regarding the determinants of ERM and its value once implemented. In doing so we are able to illustrate differences in model specifications and the underlying data. Our literature study shows that particularly the company size and the level of institutional ownership are significantly positively related to the implementation of ERM in most empirical studies and, furthermore, that ERM generally has a (significant) positive impact on corporate value and performance (to a different extent and depending on the focus of the studies). However, geographic and/or industrial restrictions regarding the underlying data sets partly limit the generalization of the empirical results.     

Critical Illness Insurances: Challenges and Opportunities for Insurers

Since the first introduction of critical illness insurance in 1983 in South Africa, the product has successfully spread to some insurance markets, especially in Asian and Anglophone countries, but market penetration remains low in other countries. For this reason and because of the increasing relevance of dread diseases, the aim of this article is to provide a first comprehensive overview of challenges and opportunities associated with critical illness products for insurers. Toward this end, we first present the various product designs, as well as the developments that have taken place within the market before comparing this form of coverage to alternative insurance products in order to better assess the market potential. Based on these assessments, we thoroughly discuss the major challenges and opportunities within the market from the insurer's perspective.     

Networks and geography in the economics of knowledge flows. A comment

This paper proposes a comment on the article by M. A. Maggioni and T. E. Uberti within this issue. It focuses on one main question: can we say that the literature on Networks and Geography has reached the initial objective assigned to it: “Demonstrate that networks and geography are the necessary ingredients for every study of the innovative process at any level of analysis: from individual agents, to institution/organization, from the regional to the national and international level”? The answer to this question is presented following three main steps: (1) How do geographical positioning and network positioning interact to impact the innovative performance? (2) What is the influence of the geography on the networking strategies (cooperation choices)? (3) What is the influence of the network upon geographical strategies (location choices)? The conclusion is that the field described by Mario Maggioni and Erika Uberti is, as their paper shows, fast expanding and already has a history and appreciable results. It still clearly appears however that much still remains to be done if the potentiality offered by the cross-use of spatial and network analysis when dealing with knowledge diffusion and its impact on innovation is to be fully exploited. No doubt that the important advances accomplished during these last years in the collecting of data related to localized relationships will provide the necessary incentives to develop the still greatly lacking micro-econometric analyses.     

Implicit Options in Life Insurance: Valuation and Risk Management

Participating life insurance contracts typically contain various types of implicit options. These implicit options can be very valuable and can thus represent a significant risk to insurance companies if they practice insufficient risk management. Options become especially risky through interaction with other options included in the contracts, which makes their evaluation even more complex. This article provides a comprehensive overview and classification of implicit options in participating life insurance contracts and discusses the relevant literature. It points out the potential problems particularly associated with the valuation of rights to early exercise due to policyholder exercise behavior. The risk potential of the interaction of implicit options is illustrated with numerical examples by means of a life insurance contract that includes common implicit options, i.e., a guaranteed interest rate, stochastic annual surplus participation, and paid-up and resumption options. Valuation is conducted using risk-neutral valuation, a concept that implicitly assumes the implementation of risk management measures such as hedging strategies.     

Formal Participation in the IASB's Due Process of Standard Setting: A Multi-issue/Multi-period Analysis

This paper sets out to enquire about the nature of constituents' participation in the IASB's due process in terms of representation (constituents' diversity and characteristics) and drivers to participate. We choose to adopt a multi-issue/multi-period approach to investigate constituents' formal participation. An analysis of comment letters sent directly to the IASB over the period 2002–2006, reveals that preparers sent most letters followed by the accounting profession and standard setters. With regard to timing, we find that preparers concentrate their participation efforts at a later stage in the process compared to the other constituents, who react earlier. Formal indirect participation in the IASB's due process by submitting comment letters to EFRAG is infrequently used by European constituents. In those cases where constituents exert influence to both IASB and EFRAG, they often use exactly the same comment letter. Concentrating on the drivers to participate, the data reveal that preparers, accountants and standard setters react significantly more when proposals have a major impact on the accounting numbers of a company. Users, stock exchanges and their supervisory authorities write significantly more comment letters when disclosure issues are at stake. Finally, participating preparers in the IASB's due process are larger and more profitable than non-participating preparers.     

Dynamische Preissetzung — Wer profitiert?

In the context of digitalisation, recent approaches for automatic price adjustment are gaining importance. However, these approaches can affect consumer behaviour in a way which is disadvantageous for consumers, businesses and the state as a whole. In September 2016, consumer researchers met at the Heinrich Heine University in Düsseldorf in order to discuss the impact of dynamic pricing from the viewpoint of their research fields. As the articles make clear, the researchers found that dynamic pricing based on competitors’ prices is common, while personalised prices are extremely rare. The question arises as to what extent consumers consider dynamic prices unfair. The experts disagree about the necessity of a stricter legal regulatory framework. Furthermore, digital technology can be used to help consumers find their way through the complex online world. Ultimately, the question of who profits–the consumer or the trader–has not been settled. The discussants conclude that there is need for further research in many different research fields.     

Factors motivating male consumers’ eco‐friendly apparel acquisition in the South African emerging market

The necessity of pro‐environmental apparel behaviour is to date a neglected concept in the local South African apparel industry. This study focuses on male consumers’ underlying motivation and intent to acquire apparel in an eco‐friendly manner. The research hypotheses and framework for this study are based on the Norm‐Activation Theory and the Theory of Planned Behaviour to clarify underlying motivational factors that contribute to pro‐environmental apparel acquisition. Pro‐environmental approaches were conceptualized as consumers’ purposive reduction of the amount of apparel acquired as well as the evaluation and selection of apparel based on pro‐environmental attributes. A quantitative, cross‐sectional survey approach was used for explanatory research purposes. Male consumers (18 years and older, n = 305) were reached by means of non‐probability, purposive sampling. Respondents completed online and paper‐based questionnaires that included adapted scale items for use in the local context. Results suggest that respondents are aware of the environmental consequences of their apparel behaviour, which then ultimately influences their behavioural intent. In contrast to studies conducted abroad, social and moral norms did not significantly influence their decisions to acquire apparel in a pro‐environmental manner. Respondents’ attitudes and self‐efficacy (i.e. a dimension of perceived behavioural control) contributed to their pro‐environmental intent. Yet, controllability (another dimension of perceived behavioural control) was not a significant predictor of intent and warrants further empirical research. The findings of this study substantiate important recommendations for the development of intervention strategies to promote pro‐environmental apparel behaviour in emerging market contexts such as South Africa.     

Optimal rate classification for enhanced annuities

For a given premium, enhanced annuities pay higher pensions to policyholders with impaired health. Even though risk classification is a common concept in the insurance sector and should allow insurers to increase their profitability, enhanced annuities are rarely offered outside of the United Kingdom. The paper provides a general method of determining an optimal risk classification system for enhanced annuities that will maximize an insurance company’s profits. The cost of risk classification, as well as that incurred when insureds are assigned to inappropriate risk classes (a chief component of underwriting risk), are explicitly considered.