Inference for treatment effects of job training on wages: using bounds to compute Fisher’s exact p-value

In the context of a training program’s randomized evaluation, where estimating wage effects is of interest, we propose employing bounds that control for sample selection as a model-based statistic to conduct randomization-based inference à la Fisher. Inference is based on a sharp null hypothesis of no treatment effect for anyone. In contrast to conventional inference, Fisher p-values are nonparametric and do not employ large sample approximations.     

Enhancing Statistics Education by Including Qualitative Research

In this paper, we propose to re‐examine the role of qualitative thinking in the early stages of learning statistics and, where relevant, integrate selected elements of qualitative research methods into statistics curricula. We believe that this can help to improve statistics education, deepen desired student understanding of the role of statistics in providing answers to real‐world problems and address recurring concerns about student motivation. The paper clarifies the logic underlying our proposal, examines existing connections between qualitative and quantitative research during instruction that often go unacknowledged and can be built upon, explores practical implementation issues and discusses advantages as well as limitations of the proposed approach.     

The interplay between labor market rigidity and volatility-growth nexus

Using a simple innovation‐driven growth model I investigate to what extent labor market regulations underlie the devastating effects of output volatility on long‐run growth trends. Empirical analysis conducted for 154 countries over the 1996–2005 period shows that an increase from low values of the rigidity of employment index strengthens the influence of volatility on growth. This effect weakens with further increases in rigidity. Hence implementation of labor protection legislation is recommended in economies frequently hit by shocks.     

Returns from income strategies in rural Poland

In order to stabilize and improve their income situation, rural households are strongly encouraged to diversify their activities both in and outside the agricultural sector. Often, however, this phenomenon takes on only moderate proportions. This article addresses issues of rural households' income diversification in the case of Poland. It investigates returns from rural households' income strategies using propensity score matching methods and extensive datasets spanning 1998–2008. Results suggest that returns from combining farm and off‐farm activities were lower than returns from concentrating on farming or on self‐employment outside agriculture. This differential is stable over time although returns from diversification have relatively improved after the accession of Poland to the European Union. This is also visible in the fact that since 2006, returns from combining farm and off‐farm activities have equalized with returns from relying solely on hired off‐farm labour, thus smoothing away the difference observed before the accession. Further, over the analysed period, households pursuing a diversification strategy performed better than those relying solely on unearned income. Finally, in general, incomes in households combining farm and off‐farm activities were higher than in those combining off‐farm income sources.     

A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling

The paper presents a new approach to exchange rate modelling that augments the CHEER model with a sovereign credit default risk as perceived by financial investors making their decisions. In the cointegrated VAR system with nine variables comprised of the short- and long-term interest rates in Poland and the euro area, inflation rates, CDS indices and the zloty/euro exchange rate, four long-run relationships were found. Two of them link term spreads with inflation rates, the third one describes the exchange rate and the fourth one explains the inflation rate in Poland. Transmission of shocks was analysed by common stochastic trends. The estimation results were used to calculate the zloty/euro equilibrium exchange rate.     

A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts

This paper introduces a formal method of combining expert and model density forecasts when the sample of past forecasts is unavailable. It works directly with the expert forecast density and endogenously delivers weights for forecast combination, relying on probability rules only. The empirical part of the paper illustrates how the framework can be applied in forecasting US inflation by mixing density forecasts from an autoregressive model and the Survey of Professional Forecasters.