Improving the accuracy of outlook price forecasts

This study investigates the predictive ability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative time‐series and market forecasts. Under root mean squared error (RMSE), the futures market forecast is most accurate at the first and second horizon but less accurate than Iowa outlook and the other forecast methods at the third horizon. In terms of the individual time‐series models, some vector autoregressions (VARs) and Bayesian VARs flexible in specification and estimation and model averaging tend to perform better than Iowa outlook forecasts. Evidence from encompassing tests, more stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts can add incremental information to the Iowa forecast. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically significant levels. Overall, the results indicate that it is possible to provide more accurate forecasts than Iowa outlook at every horizon.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Mature and Emerging Organic Markets: Modelling Consumer Attitude and Behaviour With Partial Least Square Approach

Although the organic food sector has been researched for around 20 years, still little is known about consumer behaviour when comparing developed and emerging organic markets. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of organic food consumption in a mature (Germany) and an emerging (Chile) organic market using a model based on the theory of planned behaviour and partial least squares for parameters estimation. The reported results have implications for decision makers in both countries. The use of altruistic arguments in organic food marketing is a key aspect to increase organic food demand in both countries. However, egoistic motives might also gain importance in Chile, as they already have in Germany. In both countries, the barriers for organic food consumption have to be addressed with great attention—a lack of information and availability, especially in Chile, and scepticism about organic food in Germany.     

How Managers Handle Conflict in Supply Chain Collaborative Relationships in Ghana

To contribute to a broader understanding of how conflict impacts the emergence of collaborative relationships in the supply chain, the authors conduct a series of simulation games among supply chain collaborative teams in Ghana, West Africa. Results lend support to a theoretic proposition that managers' responses to conflict differ on the basis of their evaluative judgments about the favorability of processes and fairness of outcomes as predicted by the process and outcome discrepancy model (Kumar & Nti, 1998 Kumar , R. , & Nti , K. O. ( 1998 ). Differential learning and interaction in alliance dynamics: A process and outcome discrepancy model . Organizational Science , 9 , 356 – 367 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Further, results show that most collaborative relationships are prone to only a moderate level of conflict (contentious) as opposed to being highly conflict-prone (hostile) or conflict-free (harmonious), but the incidence of contentious and hostile relationships has a greater negative impact on collaboration decisions than the incidence of harmonious relationships. These findings demonstrate the importance of the process and outcome discrepancy model and the loss aversion tenet in prospect theory to supply chain collaboration research and strategy formulation.     

Saint-Simonian Feminism

By 1832, followers of Saint-Simonianism, a utopian-socialist movement in France, had become preoccupied with the social and economic roles of women. Barthélemy-Prosper Enfantin, a leader in the movement, and a few disciples developed an increasingly utopian and abstract theory that justified "protecting" women from the hardening influence of the world and removing them from the public sphere, while arguing that in the new world women would play a role distinct from, yet equal to, that played by men. The theory treated both men and women as beings embedded in a social network, rather than as separate individuals with independent goals. After women were eliminated from the Saint-Simonian hierarchy in 1831, a group of female adherents founded a newspaper as the center of a separate organization, which would work for the extension to women of the same political and civil rights that men enjoyed. This separatist group focused on policy reform rather than theory, on the present rather than some indefinite future, and on the common concerns that united women across social classes. The different ways in which the two groups (the doctrinaire Saint-Simonians and the breakaway women's organization) conceived of economic agents mirror contemporary disputes in feminist economics.     

A higher-order model of community resilience potential: development and assessment through confirmatory composite analysis based on partial least squares

Quality & Quantity - The topic of community resilience attracts as much academic research as it does social media. Understanding the drivers of change and community adaptation in the face of...