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61.
Hiroshi Tsuda 《Asia-Pacific Financial Markets》2003,10(1):59-85
In this paper, we propose a dynamic bond pricing model and report the usefulness of our bond pricing model based on analysis of Japanese Government bond price data. We extend the concept of the time dependent Markov (TDM) model proposed by Kariya and Tsuda (Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Vol. 1, pp. 1–20) to a dynamic model, which can obtain information for future bond prices. A main feature of the extended model is that the whole stochastic process of the random cash-flow discount functions of each individual bond has a time series structure. We express the dynamic structure for the models by using a Bayesian state space representation. The state space approach integrates cross-sectional and time series aspects of individual bond prices. From the empirical results, we find useful evidence that our model performs well for the prediction of the patterns of the term structure of the individual bond returns. 相似文献
62.
We study the arbitrage free optionpricing problem for the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. To treatthestochastic aspect of the CEV model, we direct attention to the relationship between the CEV modeland squared Bessel processes. Then we show the existence of a unique equivalentmartingale measure and derive the Cox's arbitrage free option pricing formulathrough the properties of squared Bessel processes. Finally we show that the CEVmodel admits arbitrage opportunities when it is conditioned to be strictlypositive. 相似文献
63.
64.
To analyze the effects of simultaneous tariff reductions by multiple importing countries on prices, we construct a simple three‐country model where a good is produced by a monopolist with nonconstant marginal cost and imported by two countries. We compare two representative tariff‐reduction formulas: the “fixed‐amount” and the “uniform percentage” reductions. The uniform percentage reductions may increase the consumer price in the importing country, whose initial tariff is lower. Thus, importing countries with relatively low tariffs may prefer a bilateral trade agreement to a multilateral one to ensure consumer gains. 相似文献
65.
A political preference function is used to endogenize government actions in a simultaneous equation model for South Korean rice policy. The effects of economic changes on rice pricing decisions through estimated political weights are tested to improve our understanding of policy adjustments in that country and open the way for further research in East Asia. 相似文献
66.
Jota Ishikawa Hiroshi Mukunoki Yoshihiro Mizoguchi 《International Economic Review》2007,48(1):185-210
Free trade agreements (FTAs) have rules of origin (ROOs) to prevent tariff circumvention by firms of nonmember countries. This article points out that in imperfectly competitive markets, ROOs have another role overlooked in the existing literature. Instead of focusing on the impacts of ROOs in the intermediate‐good markets, we draw our attention to the final‐good markets to examine the effects of ROOs. We find that under some conditions, ROOs benefit both firms at the expense of consumers. Under some other conditions, ROOs benefit the firm producing outside the FTA and hurt the firm producing inside the FTA. 相似文献
67.
We propose a new interest rate dynamicsmodel where the interest rates fluctuate in a bounded region. The model ischaracterised by five parameters which are sufficiently flexible to reflect theprediction of the future interest rates distribution. The interest rate convergesin law to a Beta distribution and has transition probabilities which arerepresented by a series of Jacobi polynomials. We derive the moment evaluationformula of the interest rate. We also derive the arbitrage free pure discountbond price formula by a weighted series of Jacobi polynomials. Furthermore wegive simple lower and upper bounds for the arbitrage free discount bond pricewhich are tight for the narrow interest rates region case. Finally we show thatthe numerical evaluation procedure converges to the exact value in the limitand evaluate the accuracy of the approximation formulas for the discount bondprices. 相似文献
68.
Hiroshi Ohashi 《Journal of International Economics》2002,57(1):83-105
This paper investigates the impact of voluntary export restraints (VERs) at the pre-implementation stage when exporters have a good prospect for the VERs. Distinctive features of the VCR market in 1978-86 provide a testable hypothesis to analyze the effect of the EC-Japan VERs, which were implemented in the fiscal years of 1983-85. The paper finds consistent evidence that the VERs affected firms’ pricing behavior in the U.S. market prior to the VER period, as a result of Japanese exporters’ anticipation of the VERs. 相似文献
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70.
To help predict whether the proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs) continues until global free trade is effectively attained, this paper investigates dynamic paths of FTAs, generated by numerical simulations of a model of an FTA network formation game with many countries. The characteristics of the final FTA network naturally depend on how the proposer of an FTA is chosen in each period. The paper finds that if the country that has the largest incentive to form an FTA is chosen as a proposer in each period, the network evolution always leads to a unique final FTA network, which may or may not be the complete network of FTAs. FTA networks often evolve to a partition of the world into a small number of groups of asymmetric size owing to the negative network externality caused by preference erosion. 相似文献