How Does the FOMC Learn About Economic Revolutions? Evidence from the New Economy Era, 1994–2001

Forecasting is a daunting challenge for business economists and policymakers, often made more difficult by pervasive uncertainty. One such uncertainty is the reaction of policymakers to major shifts in the economy. We explore the process by which the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) came to recognize and react to the productivity acceleration of the 1990s. Initial impressions were formed importantly by anecdotal evidence. Then, FOMC members—and chiefly Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan—came to mistrust the data and the forecasts. Eventually, revisions to published data confirmed initial impressions. Our main conclusion is that the productivity-driven positive supply side shocks of the 1990s were initially viewed favorably. However, over time they came to be viewed as posing a threat to the economy, chiefly through unsustainable increases in aggregate demand growth that threatened to increase inflation pressures. Perhaps nothing so complicates business planning and forecasting as policymakers who initially embrace an unanticipated shift and later come to abhor the same shift.     

Toll-free numbers: Demand,property rights,and public policy

The demand for Toll Free Numbers (TFNs) languished from 2000 to 2008; however recent growth in demand caused the FCC to open a new toll-free code (855) with the possibility of new code openings in the next three years. The analysis here indicates the demand for TFNs is highly inelastic (the coefficient for own price elasticity for TFNs is approximately −0.04). This has implications for concerns regarding future exhaust of toll-free codes and the price structure for recovery of SMS/800's costs. This article considers the effects of the limited property rights for TFN, and welfare implications of gray markets for vanity TFNs. The FCC's allocation mechanism for new 855 codes is considered and whether other allocation mechanisms, such as auctions, could be welfare superior.     

Adoption of activity management practices: a note on the extent of adoption and the influence of organizational and cultural factors

We examine the extent to which activity management practices are adopted by Australian business units at each of Gosselin's [Gosselin, M., 1997. The effect of strategy and organizational structure on the adoption and implementation of activity-based costing. Acc. Organ. Society 22 (2), 105–122] levels of Activity Analysis, Activity Cost Analysis and Activity-based Costing. We also examine the association between extent of adoption and the organizational factors of size and decision usefulness of cost information, and the business unit culture dimensions of innovation, outcome orientation, and tight versus loose control.Data were collected by mail survey questionnaire of a random sample of business units, with questionnaire design and distribution based on Dillman's [Dillman, D.A., 2000. Mail and Internet Surveys: The Tailored Design Method. John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York] Tailored Design Method. Adoption rates are found to be higher than in prior studies, suggesting the continuing relevance of activity management practices and the advantage of using Gosselin's (1997) levels. All factors were found to be associated with all activity management practices. In particular, business unit size and all three business unit culture dimensions were found to be associated with extent of adoption of Activity Analysis (AA) and Activity Cost Analysis (ACA), while decision usefulness and the cultural dimensions of outcome orientation and tight versus loose control were associated with Activity-based Costing.     

The internationalization of African firms: Opportunities,challenges, and risks

There has been a marked increase in the internationalization activities of African firms over the last two decades or so, resulting in the emergence of regional challenger firms that are aggressively competing with foreign multinationals in terrains historically dominated by the latter. However, our understanding of this phenomenon is limited, as empirical research examining the nature of internationalization of African firms is scarce, and research directly investigating drivers, outcomes, and boundary conditions of the internationalization of African firms is lacking. The goal of this special issue, therefore, is to contribute to the scholarly understanding of the increasingly prevalent internationalization of African firms. This guest editorial provides a summary of the six articles in this special issue, and highlights three broad thematic issues: internationalization opportunities for African firms (accelerated private‐sector development and regional integration, and ability to overcome institutional voids); internationalization challenges (global competitiveness challenges, limited management and cross‐cultural capabilities, and overcoming the liability of Africanness); and internationalization risks (losing focus on home markets and over‐internationalization).     

Are remittances good for economic growth? The role of political institutions

Within a sample of 109 developing countries for the period 1975–2014 and controlling for country and time-fixed effects, this article presents evidence that workers’ remittances are more effective in promoting growth in developing countries with strong democratic institutions. The evidence is robust to alternative samples and different measures of democratic institutions.     

Taxation,fiscal capacity,and credible commitment in eighteenth-century China: the effects of the formalization and centralization of informal surtaxes†

This article explores a tax reform in eighteenth-century China that formalized county-level informal surtaxes and centralized control over them in the hands of provincial governors, in an effort to strengthen provincial fiscal capacity. The findings show that this reform increased the frequency of famine relief in cases of exceptional disaster relative to other weather conditions. The study shows that the effects were driven by the new fiscal revenues—public funds—at the governors’ discretion, not by the central government's relief actions, bureaucratic control over lower officials, or other concurrent fiscal reforms. Moreover, the reform facilitated intertemporal smoothing and inter-regional risk sharing. However, the effects declined as soon as the central government broke its promise and began to appropriate provincial fiscal revenues. These findings not only provide evidence that fiscal centralization could enhance the provision of public goods in a premodern context, but also highlight that it was the lack of a credible commitment by the central government to the provincial governments that accounted for the short-lived effects of the reform.     

Fundamental Analysis: Combining the Search for Quality with the Search for Value

Using cross‐sectional forecasts, we combine fundamental analysis strategies based on quality, such as the FSCORE from Piotroski (2000) and the GSCORE from Mohanram (2005), with strategies based on value, such as the V/P ratio from Frankel and Lee (1998) and the PEG ratio. While all four strategies generate significant hedge returns, combining quality‐driven and value‐driven approaches substantially improves the efficacy of fundamental analysis. Our parsimonious two‐dimensional approach can be applied to a wide cross section of stocks and outperforms common practitioner approaches that require a lengthy time series of data. The improvements in hedge returns hold for a variety of partitions and are robust to controls for risk factors and other determinants of stock returns. While the efficacy of fundamental analysis has declined in recent years, this can partially be attributed to investors arbitraging away excess returns by investing in fundamental strategies.     

You say you want a (Rose) Revolution? The effects of Georgia's 2004 market reforms

After Georgia declared its independence from the Soviet Union, it experienced civil war and strife for more than a decade. In late 2003, the peaceful Rose Revolution installed a new government that began a series of radical market‐liberal reforms. However, the effectiveness of these reforms was controversial. We offer a rigorous evaluation of these reforms via the synthetic control method which creates a credible counterfactual. Compared to the synthetic controls, we find that the reforms enacted after the Rose Revolution led to significant improvements in Georgia's social and economic development, albeit with temporary side effects and argue that this case provides some support for the effectiveness of rapid, multidimensional reform.     

Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate China’s Economic Development:Outlook,Policy Simulations,and Reform Implementation-A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report(2019-2020)

Twenty nineteen(2019)marked another year of lethargic growth in the Chinese economy amidst escalated internal and external complexities.Internally,the country's macroeconomic landscape was overcast continuously by fallen consumption growth,plunged growth in manufacturing investment,rapid accumulation of household debt,risen income inequality,and the overhang of local government debt.The nation's external conditions did not fare any better,with drastically declined growth in imports and exports,continued trade tensions with the US,and weakened external demand.Based on the IAR-CMM model,which takes account of both cyclical and secular factors,the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.0%in 2020(5.9%using more reliable rather than the official data),with a downside risk.Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted,in addition to the benchmark forecast,to reflect the influences of various internal and external uncertainties.The findings emanated from these analyses lead us to stress the importance and urgency of deepening reform to achieve competitive neutrality for China’s transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality development.     

Insurance Rating Games: Strikes,Spares, and Bags

Carefully designed classroom activities and games can be used to increase student engagement, motivation, and learning. This article describes two games that have been used with students of risk management and insurance to help highlight the intricacies of insurance pricing. These two games, bowling insurance and bags insurance, help students experience the challenging nature of premium determination in risk transfer contracts and also connect the various actions taken by insurers during the insurance transaction.