Active ageing in developing countries? – trip generation and tour complexity of older people in Metro Manila

There is by now quite a substantial body of literature discussing the impact of an ageing population in developed countries on travel needs and required changes to transport policy. As many newly developed and developing countries are following demographic trends of “first world” countries, but offset by some decades, the problem is, however, not limited to the industrialised nations. The focus of this paper is on Metro Manila and analyses travel patterns by those aged 60 or over. Trip frequency and tour complexity are analysed with ordered probit regression, separating the effects of socio-demographic characteristics as well as land-use patterns. The results are compared to observations made for cities in developed countries, in particular London as an example for a city in a first world country. We show that there is a more pronounced decrease in total trips made with increasing age in Manila. However, analysing for specific trip purposes we find, similarly to trends in developed countries, that the number of recreational trips is fairly constant in all age groups. Recreational activities also seem to take more time per day than average for younger old, possibly indicating the advent of similar active ageing trends as in industrialised nations. The paper concludes by discussing some implications given future economic trends and advocates that better datasets from developing and newly developed countries are required for urban planning in developing countries.     

Forest management: Are double or mixed rotations preferable to clear cutting?

We study a particular uneven-aged forest stand management pattern, variations of which are often advocated in practice to mitigate the adverse effects of clear cutting. The forest stand under consideration is similar to a Faustmann stand, with the following difference: rather than being single aged, the forest tract contains trees of two age classes so that it is submitted to a form of selective cutting. Each harvest involves all of the older trees and only a fraction of the younger ones; hence the name mixed rotation. Trees left standing at harvest help stimulate natural regeneration and improve various environmental and amenity characteristics of the forest. We model this effect by using a cost function that varies with respect to the harvest rate of younger trees. We derive the properties that this cost function must exhibit in order some form of mixed rotation to be superior to the conventional single rotation à la Faustmann; we also characterize the mixed rotation in terms of duration and the harvest rate of younger trees, and we compare its properties with Faustmann’s rule.     

Markets as communication systems

As the information relative to endowments, costs and preferences is dispersed among many agents, the quality of resource allocation depends on the ability of markets to communicate information inside the economic system. Because information is transferred through negotiation and transaction behaviors, the network of trading relations defines the channels through which it flows. In the present study, we use new computational tools to analyze the performance of two wholesale trade institutions widely used around the world: network trading and marketplace trading. Whilst network trading and marketplace trading disseminate far fewer bits of information than a perfectly transparent benchmark market, they often manage to generate an allocation of resources that is almost as good. In many cases, network trading proves more effective than marketplace trading (contrary to a common preconception). This surprising performance of network trading is linked to a form of indirect arbitrage induced by connections between networks. Implications for market design and public policy making are presented, along with prospects for further research.     

Does the Quality of Institutions Limit the MENA's Integration in the World Economy?

Using a large sample of countries over the 1990s, this paper examines the extent to which institutions’ functioning disables a greater participation of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the world economy. It focuses on the impact on manufactured exports and FDI attractiveness and considers a broad index of political risk as well as indices targeted toward specific aspects of governance (corruption, government effectiveness and the rule of law). The results are robust to different econometric approaches and lend strong support to the hypothesis that the functioning of institutions may disable the participation of MENA countries in the world economy. They suggest that the impact of an improvement in the quality of institutions may result in a sensitive increase of FDI inflows and manufactured exports. That increase is comparable to the one resulting from liberalisation policies. Hence, although institutional reforms can take time, they deserve the necessary efforts given their outcomes as compared to other reforms.     

Technological experience and the technology adoption decisions in small manufacturing firms

This paper investigates changes in factors bearing on technology adoption decisions in small manufacturing firms. It is hypothesized that, as a firm's experience with technology increases and its technological capabilities grow, the decision process is gradually modified and puts more weight on those factors which are more closely related to the true potential of the technology. An empirical study shows the more innovative firms to have an outward orientation dominated by clients and suppliers, and to pay more attention to the added flexibility brought about by new technology. It is also shown that functional groups within the company play a more important role in the decision-making process.     

Proactive behavior and industrial salesforce performance

Proactive behavior has been indirectly linked to effective selling, an assertion underpinned by a logic, which states that in a world of high competition and choice, the passive, reactive seller is unlikely to do as well as his or her more proactive counterpart. Yet, little direct empirical evidence exists to substantiate this link. In this paper, we address this knowledge gap by describing a study that assesses the effect of proactive behavior on the performance of an industrial sales force. The paper explores the issue of salesperson performance and the construct of proactive behavior (or proactiveness). Using the Proactive Personality (PP) Scale to measure proactiveness and the line manager's subjective evaluation to indicate salesperson performance, it was found that a small but significant relationship exists. The results are discussed, with areas for future research delineated and implications for practitioners explored.     

Demographic Shock and Social Security: A Political Economy Perspective

We assume that individual voters differ not only according to age but also productivity. In the steady state, workers with wages in the intermediate range join the retired persons to form a majority and vote for a positive level of social security. When a shock decreases population growth, entrenched interests can constrain majority voting decisions and prevent reforms in the name of entitlements. We show that from a Rawlsian viewpoint it may be desirable to rely on these entitlements to protect the low wage earners of the transition generations. However, when the possibility of fixing a basic pension is introduced, it constitutes a better instrument than entitlements.     

An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields

Abstract:  This paper assesses the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries. The time period of our data spans several decades. In a time series framework our analysis first tests the presence of a long-term contemporaneous relationship between these three variables (the so-called Fed model). Next, we assess if government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship. Our empirical results question the validity of the Fed model in the sense that we show that long-term market movements are mainly driven by the earnings yield and not the differential between bond and earnings yields. As such, our analysis validates the results of Asness (2003) for a much larger collection of countries while using a dynamic time series (cointegration) framework. Finally, we also show that changes in long-term government bond yields have a short-term impact on stock prices.     

Dual VATs and Cross-Border Trade: Two Problems, One Solution?

In recent years, two distinct but related questions have been raised with respect to value-added taxes (VATs). Concern has been expressed over whether it is desirable or even possible for both national and subnational governments in federal countries such as India, Argentina, and Russia to impose VATs. One reason for thinking that such subnational VATs are unlikely to be workable on a destination basis is the problem of cross-border trade. Of course, this same problem also arises within the European Union, where there is no EU VAT. Drawing upon Canadian experience, we argue that not only is it possible to have two-tier or dual VATs on a destination basis in a single country but that the existence of dual VATs may help deal with some of the problems of cross-border trade.     

Quality control mechanisms under capitation payment for medical services

As a result of rising health care costs, many countries, including the United States, have turned to managed care organizations and the use of capitation payment systems. Although this type of system is an effective mechanism for reducing excessive utilization of health care, it may lead to the underprovision of medical services. In this paper propensity to underprovide medical services in a prepayment system as well as the effects of auditing/monitoring on physician behaviour and patient well-being are examined. Conditions are found under which managed care yields more efficient outcomes than traditional fee-for-service care.
Suite à la croissance importante des coûts des soins, plusieurs pays, y compris les Etats Unis, ont commencéà se tourner vers des organisations spécialisées pour gérer la prestation des services et à faire usage de systèmes de rémunération per capita. Même si ce genre de système est un mécanisme efficace pour réduire l'usage excessif des service de santé, il peut entraîner une offre déficiente de services médicaux. Ce mémoire examine la propensitéà fournir moins de services dans un système de pré-paiement. On examine aussi les effets de la surveillance et de la vérification sur le comportement des médecins et sur le bien-être des patients. On met en lumière les conditions qui assurent que les soins fournis dans un tel système donneront de meilleurs résultats que la rémunération à l'acte.