Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.     

从PR到CI、CS、CRM--企业形象策略评析

为了帮助企业塑造良好形象，理论界从国外引进了PR、CI、CS、CRM等策略，然而，由于每一种策略在介绍时都程度不同地给于了美化，不仅造成了相互矛盾，更使企业界无所适从，其实，单个地来看，这些策略都有其所长和不足，只有联系起来综合运用，才能因相互充实而真正成为较为完善的企业形象策略。     

人民币兑换空间的结构与特征探讨

2002年12月1日,我国开始准许合格境外投资机构在中国境内开设人民币特殊账户,将人民币兑换从居民的兑换扩展到非居民的兑换。人民币兑换领域的扩展对人民币兑换的研究提出了新的要求。该文引入兑换空间和兑换空间结构的概念,通过人民币兑换空间中各种集合的关系比较,探讨人民币兑换空间的性质和特点,并由此提出人民币兑换的政策性建议。     

推进“中部崛起”的思路与对策——著名经济学家樊纲访谈录

2006年新年伊始,著名经济学家、中国经济体制改革研究基金会秘书长樊纲教授应邀来安徽出席“2006安徽财富论坛”,并发表了有关“中部崛起”的学术演讲。笔者在此期间就此主题访问了樊纲教授。     

How Big Was the Effect of Budget Consolidation on the Australian Economy in the 1990s?

This article evaluates the effects of budget consolidation on the Australian economy in the 1990s. As the economy recovered from the 1991–92 recession, the need to improve the fiscal balance to lift national saving became the dominant influence on fiscal policy. The article argues that spending cuts by the Australian federal government announced in 1996 had immediate effects on financial markets, with reduced long‐term interest rates of about 50 basis points in 1996–97. Using a modified version of the Treasury macroeconometric model of the Australian economy (TRYM), the article simulates the net macroeconomic effects of the expenditure cuts, fiscal consolidation and lower long‐term interest rates. The article finds that the program of budget consolidation had a sizeable short‐ and medium‐term impact on the economy, raising Gross Domestic Product by up to three‐quarters of a percentage point and reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over the next two to three years.     

中国创造国家竞争优势的要素分析

波特、鲁格曼、克如兹、穆恩、鲁格曼、沃柏克和乔东逊等人分别解释美国、加拿大、韩国等国家竞争优势形成的要素.本文在参考上述等人文献的基础上,试图剖析形成中国国家竞争优势的主要元素.我们的结论是:政府、对外开放、生产力和市场需求四个因素及其关联共同创造了中国国家竞争优势.     

综合素质与语言能力:高职英语教学的育人功能研究

高职英语教育教学改革要坚持以人为本的育人理念,注重学生英语综合运用能力的培养和综合素质的提升.文章以福建金融职业技术学院的教育质量问卷调查结果统计为依据,结合目前大学英语教育教学及改革的现状,从更新教育理念,改革教学模式、优化课堂教学三方面进行阐述,来探讨高职英语教育应如何改革才能更好地实现其育人功能.     

北京:经济增长与扩大就业

一种广为流传的认识是,扩大就业要通过发展经济来实现,用新古典模型对北京经济发展与就业增长的相关实证分析,并非如此.由此可见,经济增长有投资型、技术进步型和劳动扩张型.北京市今后经济的发展必须在重视投资和技术的同时,提升发展劳动密集型中小企业和第三产业的政策层面.     

对企业债券与企业负债率关系的重新认识

我国企业以至监管部门普遍把企业债券仅仅当成一种债务,这种观念导致了我国严重的“重股票融资、轻债券融资“现象.本文通过对企业债券与企业资产负债率关系的重新梳理,指出了我国企业传统理财观念上的失误,并引入了“企业的资产流动负债率“重新考察企业债券与企业资产负债率的关系,希望以此推进我国债券市场的发展.