浅析物流产业的发展途径

探讨了物流在经济生活中的作用和现阶段我国物流产业方面存在的问题。提出了发展我国物流产业的基本途径。指出了我国的物流企业应该适时调整经营战略。顺应世界经济的发展趋势。不断提高自身的生存和发展能力。以应对未来更为激烈的竞争局面。     

我国自然垄断产业的民营化改革

在自然垄断产业,国有企业垄断经营低效是一个世界性的问题。自然垄断产业在一定范围内具有可竞争性,即使是在不可竞争性的领域,也可以通过建立潜在的竞争性替代机制,形成模拟竞争环境。自然垄断产业的可竞争性为民营化提供了可能。自然垄断产业民营化就是通过产权制度变革,提高垄断企业的效率。     

对我国风险投资组织模式选择的研究

有限合伙制以其特有的产权和责任安排而被认为是最符合风险投资行业特点和要求的组织形式。我国在对建立有限合伙制风险投资企业的认识上存在一定的分歧，本认为随着我国经济的不断向前发展，相关法律法规的完善，有限合伙制必然会成为我国风险投资企业组织模式的首选。     

A Bayesian analysis of a variance decomposition for stock returns

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.     

中国现阶段的工业品市场营销模式初探

随着中国市场经济的快速发展、科技水平的提高以及中国加入WTO,工业品的市场竞争将更加激烈。对于中国现阶段的工业品来讲,由于行业、企业、产品特点及销售对象不同,各公司的营销策略各有不同,尤其对市场营销模式需要进一步探索。     

由联想改制看高层长期激励

联想是较早在我国实施股票期权制度的企业,也是运用最成功的范例之一。联想董事长柳传志曾多次说过“如果没有实施股权激励,联想的接班就不会这么顺利”。这句话的确意义深刻,因为受益的不仅是企业及企业高层,当然也包括柳传志本人。从褚时建到李经纬再到柳传志,任何人都无法否认柳传志是最幸运的退居二线的企业家。因为他有联想1000万股股票,足以使他在退下来后,潇洒自如地或挥杆高尔夫绿茵场上;或闲情逸致漫步异国他乡。而前两位却不幸成为了“59现象”的代表。“股票期权”与联想模式在我国实施股票期权的确障碍多多,因为很多制度、法律…     

Sybase数据库的磁盘镜像及故障恢复机制

数据库的可靠性是权衡数据库系统安全性的重要指标 ,数据库容错技术和有关故障 (包括系统故障、存储介质故障 )恢复决定了信息系统设计的规模和性能 ,特别是随着系统大型化 ,对数据库系统的联机处理性能提出了较高的要求 ,在故障恢复期间仍需具备一定的在线恢复 ( Non-Stop Recovery)能力。本文从故障恢复、磁盘镜像等方面讨论了Sybase数据库的有关机制     

Intraday Lead-Lag Relationships Between the Futures-, Options and Stock Market

In rational, efficiently functioning and complete markets, returns on derivative and underlying securities should be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Due to market imperfections, one of these markets may reflect information faster. The use of high-frequency data and the choice for a small unit time interval to measure these lead-lag relations comes at the cost of some or many missing observations, causing traditional estimators to either under- or overestimate covariances and correlations. We use a new estimator to estimate lead-lag relationships between the cash AEX index, options and futures. We find that futures returns lead both options and cash index returns by approximately 10 minutes. The relationship between options and the cash market is not completely unidirectional.     

Programme Evaluation with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Selective Implementation: The Mexican PROGRESA Impact on Child Nutrition

This paper considers the impact of Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación ( PROGRESA ), a large Mexican rural anti-poverty programme that had an evaluation sample in which overall treatment was randomly assigned to some communities but not others, on child nutrition. When we examine the impact of PROGRESA based on the presumption of randomized allocations, we find that PROGRESA had no or even a negative impact on child nutrition. However, not all children designated to receive nutritional supplements actually did so. Our preferred estimates – child fixed-effects estimates that control for unobserved heterogeneity that is correlated with access to the supplement – indicate a significantly positive and fairly substantial programme effect of the nutritional supplements on children 12–36 months. They imply an increase of about a sixth in mean growth per year for these children and a lower probability of stunting. Effects are somewhat larger for children from poorer communities but whose mothers are functionally literate. The long-term consequences of these improvements are non-trivial; its impact working through adult height alone could result in a 2.9% increase in lifetime earnings.