Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break

The conventional testing procedure may mislead one into accepting the null of no cointegration or the null of a cointegrating rank smaller than the true rank when there is a trend-break under the alternative hypothesis. This paper proposes tests for cointegrating rank that have power against the trend-break alternative. The proposed tests are applied to the US money demand function. The results support the Campbell–Perron conjecture: money, income and interest rates are cointegrated around a broken trend.     

Price Fluctuations and Growth Patterns in Singapore's Trade, 1831–1913

Using a newly created trade price index, this paper determines the real growth rate of Singapore's trade during 1831–1913. We find that Singapore's trade grew between 1831 and 1873 at a higher rate than during the later period. An analysis of the terms of trade and purchasing power parity reveals that the growth pattern of Singapore's entrepôt trade changed after 1850 from growth fuelled by transit trade of industrial products to balanced growth between regional imports and exports. This change resulted from the operation of the international monetary system, which enhanced market integration between Britain and Southeast Asia via Singapore.     

Change in the transition of the fertility rate

This paper presents an investigation of the effects of child care service on the fertility rate. Results of our analyses show that the price of child care service plays important roles on the fertility and that a positive relation is not robust between fertility and income.     

The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model

This paper examines how and to what extent parameter estimates can be biased in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that omits the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our Monte Carlo experiments using a standard sticky‐price DSGE model show that no significant bias is detected in parameter estimates and that the estimated impulse response functions are quite similar to the true ones. However, as the frequency of being at the ZLB or the duration of ZLB spells increases, the parameter bias becomes larger and therefore leads to substantial differences between the estimated and true impulse responses. It is also demonstrated that the model missing the ZLB causes biased estimates of structural shocks even with the virtually unbiased parameters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Local Sunspot Equilibria Reconsidered

We generalize the usual notion of local sunspot equilibria. We say such equilibria exist around a steady state of an OLG economy whenever stationary sunspot equilibria of arbitrarily close economies exist within any neighborhood of the steady state. Unlike the usual notion, this generalization allows to address the following identification problem: Can an analyst distinguish empirically small fluctuations due to small shocks to the fundamentals from pure expectations-driven fluctuations? We study conditions under which these generalized local sunspot equilibria exist in OLG economies, and show that they may exist around not only indeterminate but also determinate steady states.     

Decentralization and economic growth revisited: an empirical note

Although it is theoretically expected that decentralization leads to efficient provision of local public services and stimulates economic development, there is a mixed picture of the decentralization effect on economic growth across earlier empirical studies. Using the instrument variables (IV) technique with the latest cross-country data for the period from 1997 to 2001, this paper found that fiscal decentralization has a significant positive impact on per capita GDP growth. Therefore, when the focus is placed on the latest information on the economic situation in the latter 1990s, decentralization, particularly on the fiscal expenditure side, is instrumental in economic growth.     

Auction Reforms for Effective Official Development Assistance

Auctions, which are applicable to aid-related procurement systems, have been recently recognized as an important tool for improving economic efficiency. Using data on procurement auctions for Japanese official development assistance projects, the equilibrium bid function is estimated. The data reveals that a 1% increase in the number of bidders decreases the equilibrium bid by about 0.2%. This implies that strengthening competition at procurement auctions lowers contract prices and mitigates the heavy indebtedness of developing countries. Auctions are also instrumental in fostering local business environment and governance. For intensifying bidding competition, it is useful to introduce an electronic bidding system, encourage local firms to jointly bid, and relax excessive qualification requirements.     

Automatic Selection of Classification Algorithms for Non-Experts Using Meta-Features

With the arrival of big-data society, methods for classifying real-world problems have attracted much attention for researchers and developers in various fields. In recent years, much effort has been devoted for improving performances of classification algorithms by adding functions or modifying their weaknesses. However, since a large variety of classification algorithms has been available, it is difficult for non-experts to find classification algorithms that achieve good results on a given data set. Therefore, if there is a system which automatically selects the best classification algorithm for a given data set, non-experts would receive various benefits such as saving time and effort. This paper presents a system of predicting the best possible classification algorithm for a given data set with respect to the accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach focused on predicting the best one. The main target users of the proposed system are non-experts who do not have knowledge and experience in data mining. The proposed system utilizes useful meta-features selected from existing recta-features to increase the performance of the prediction. The feature selection is conducted by a wrapper approach with the genetic search algorithm. In the proposed system, K-nearest neighbor algorithm is used to learn the selectedmeta-features and build a classification model for predicting future data. Experiments using 58 real-world data sets show that the proposed system predicted the best classification algorithm with 60.34% accuracy from the top five in 30 classification algorithms.     

An Emergency Evacuation Planning Model Using the Universally Quickest Flow

In recent years, catastrophic disasters by massive earthquakes have been increasing in the world, and disaster management is required more than ever. In the case of disasters such as tsunamis, a slight delay in evacuation may deprive evacuees of life. In this article, we formalize the emergency evacuation planning model for evacuation from tsunamis and other disasters based on the idea of the universally quickest flow. We show that there does not always exist a universally quickest flow when the capacity constraint of refuges is taken into account. Therefore, we propose an alternative criterion that approximates a universally quickest flow, and presents an algorithm for finding an optimal flow for this criterion. Numerical experiments are carried out for the evacuation of a local city in Japan where tsunami damages are assumed to occur when a large earthquake occurs in the ocean nearby.     

Shadow-Pricing Interpretation of the Pigovian Rule for the Optimal Provision of Public Goods: A Note

The Pigovian rule for the optimal public goods provision with distortionary taxation is given a new interpretation. It relates the Pigovian rule to project evaluation rules in terms of shadow prices. Our formula for the Pigovian rule is compared with that given by existing literature for cases in which commodity taxes are set optimally to articulate the implications of their results. This approach also renders a clear insight on the nature of resource allocation and income redistribution effect involved in the public goods provision in a heterogeneous-consumers economy.