Profiting from innovations: the role of new game strategies in the case of Lipitor of the US pharmaceutical industry

In exploring why innovators often do not profit from their innovations, researchers concentrate on innovators versus imitators and the extent to which owners of complementary assets capture profits from innovations. The literature provides scant attention to factors that sap profits from innovations. This paper argues that an innovator's positioning vis‐à‐vis customers, suppliers, complementors, and other co‐opetitors plays a critical role in the innovator's profitability. The article explores how an innovator can use new game strategies to better positioning, thus capturing rents from innovations and enabling further innovations in the future. The study examines the case of Lipitor, one of the world's best‐selling drug, to illustrate how positioning can play in a firm's ability to profit from its innovations.     

2004年加拿大预防血透病人医院血流感染的成本-效益分析

目的：血液透析相关的血流感染是一个严重的公共健康问题,因为加拿大的血液透析病人从1996年到2005翻了一番。本研究目的在于确定加拿大医院血流感染的成本,估算在综合性医院中建立感染控制项目的成本,并进行成本-效益分析。材料与方法：用加拿大医院感染监测项目的数据来估算医院血流感染的发生率。用加拿大健康信息所数据来估算2004年加拿大平均一次血流感染住院的额外成本。建立和维护一个感染控制项目的成本用美国疾病预防与控制中心1985年的成本换算为2004年的加拿大成本来估算。假设感染控制项目能降低医院血流感染病例的20％～30％。结果：2004年的加拿大15278名血液透析病人中估计共有2524人发生血流感染。全年用于治疗血流感染的成本估计为4901万加元。医院血流感染预防和人力资源的总投资成本为815万加元。建立医院感染控制项目后能带来1452万加元的医疗成本节约。效益成本比在1．0：1到1．8：1之间。结论：本研究提供的证据表明,如果医院感染控制项目能降低20％～30％的感染,该项目的经济效益将远超过增加的成本。医院感染控制项目将带来双重效益：节约货币成本的同时改善医疗质量。     

Ad valorem versus unit taxes: monopolistic competition, heterogeneous firms, and intra-industry reallocations

Real-world industries are composed from heterogeneous firms and substantial intra-industry reallocations take place, i.e. high productivity firms squeeze out low productivity firms. Previous tax-tool comparisons have not included these central forces of industry structure. This paper examines a general equilibrium monopolistic competition model with heterogeneous firms and intra-industry reallocations. We show that the welfare superiority of ad valorem over unit taxes under imperfect competition is not only preserved but amplified. The additional difference between the tools arises because unit taxes distort relative prices, which in turn reduces average industry productivity through reallocations (the survival and increased market share of lower productivity firms). Importantly, numerical solutions of the model reveal that the relative welfare loss from using the unit tax increases dramatically in the degree of firm heterogeneity.     

Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach

This paper develops a flexible approach to combine forecasts of future spot rates with forecasts from time-series models or macroeconomic variables. We find empirical evidence that, accounting for both regimes in interest rate dynamics, and combining forecasts from different models, helps improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance for US short-term rates. Imposing restrictions from the expectations hypothesis on the forecasting model are found to help at long forecasting horizons.     

Mobility,risk tolerance and competence to manage risks

Migration is a risky behaviour because of the uncertainty about future wages, living conditions, changing relationships with family and friends and cultural adjustment. While there has been some research on risk and uncertainty in migration, this has mostly been approached as a form of ‘rational’ decision-making: such approaches explain why some groups of individuals are more likely than others to migrate, but are limited in explaining individual variations in behaviour within these groups. Individual migrants vs. non-migrants are self-selected in terms of tolerance of risk and uncertainty but, with very few exceptions, there has been no research on migration within the framework of risk tolerance/aversion and competence to manage risk. Moreover, existing research is based on, and constrained by the limitations of, incumbent data-sets. Drawing on a specially commissioned large-scale survey of the UK population, this paper uses principal component analysis and logistic regression to analyse the extent to which risk and risk-related measures can be used to predict four different types of mobility profiles. There are significant associations between these individual mobility characteristics and general risk/uncertainty tolerance, and competence-based tolerance. These are strongest in terms of the two most polarised mobility types: the least mobile, the Stayers, and the most mobile, the Roamers. Recognising that previous migration is exogenous, a further analysis of migration intentions, with previous migration included as an independent variable, finds the propensity for future migration is, in fact, negatively associated with previous migration, probably due to the importance of ‘pure risk’ as opposed to acquired competence via migration experience, and to life cycle considerations.     

The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets

This paper implements strategies that use macroeconomic variables to select European equity mutual funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that several macro-variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance and that country-specific mutual funds provide the best opportunities for fund rotation strategies using macroeconomic information. Specifically, our baseline long-only strategies that exploit time-varying predictability provide four-factor alphas of 12–13% per year over the 1993–2008 period. Our study provides new evidence on the skills of local versus Pan-European asset managers, as well as how macroeconomic information can be used to locate and time these local fund manager skills.     

Financial Integration and Economic Growth in the COMESA and SADC Regions

Abstract

This study used panel data methods to examine the relationship between financial integration and economic growth in the COMESA and SADC regions. Using Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio flows as a share of GDP, Chinn-Ito index of financial openness and debt flows as measures of financial integration, the study found that the relationship between financial integration and growth is largely insignificant in the combined sample of COMESA and SADC regions. However, the relationship changes when the two regions are separated. Whereas two of the indicators of financial integration are significant in the COMESA region, only one indicator of financial integration is significant in the SADC region implying that financial integration is more important in the COMESA region than in the SADC region. The results support the growth retarding theories of financial globalization and the convergence hypothesis in the COMESA region while the neoclassical trade theories find strong support in the SADC region. These results imply, first, that financial integration has different growth effects for different regional groupings and thus integration policies should not be universally applied. Second, these results imply that further enhancement of trade integration policies offer more promising outcomes for economic growth in the SADC region than financial integration policies while the converse is true for the COMESA region.     

What's Wrong With the Federal Reserve: What Would Restore Independence?

The actual degree of independence of the Federal Reserve has varied over the years. This paper traces its history and finds that the Federal Reserve has been most successful in its dual full-employment, low inflation mandate when it follows fixed rules, and focuses on the intermediate term rather than trying to react to short-term developments under political pressure. Going forward, monetary policy should emphasize on annual monetary growth more and short-term interest rates less. A number of policies are recommended to support this overall emphasis on intermediate-term stability.