Trade openness, real exchange rates and job reallocation: evidence from Belgium

This paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate movements on job reallocation at the industry level. The analysis focuses on the manufacturing sector of Belgium, using data for 82 NACE 3-digit industries, over the time span 1996–2002. I find that real exchange rate changes do have a significant impact on job flows, and that this impact is magnified by increasing levels of trade exposure. In particular, a real appreciation is found to lower net employment growth through higher job destruction, while job creation is not significantly affected. These results are in line with previous empirical evidence on the United States, and differ from earlier findings for France and Germany, where the adjustment to real exchange rate shocks has been found to occur mainly through the job creation margin. I suggest that these differences may be explained by the fact that Belgium is a small open economy.     

New imported inputs,new domestic products

We study the relationship between new imported inputs and the introduction of new domestic products. To this purpose, we assemble a novel data set covering 25 European countries over 1995–2007 and containing information on domestic production and bilateral trade for the universe of goods. We develop a procedure to identify new imported inputs and new domestic products, while dealing with the complications raised by the yearly changes in the commodity classifications. We augment these data with information on prices and novel estimates of quality. We organize the empirical analysis around a version of the endogenous growth model with expanding variety, in which inputs are allowed to be heterogeneous in terms of quality. In line with this framework, we find three main results. First, new imported inputs have a strong positive effect on product creation in Europe. Second, they work through a combination of mechanisms, allowing countries to benefit from both wider and better sets of intermediate products. Finally, new imported inputs give a substantial boost to output growth in manufacturing.     

Estimation and validation of hybrid choice models to identify the role of perception in the choice to cycle

Cycling is one of the most sustainable and ecofriendly modes of travel and a good form of exercise. Many government and public health authorities recommend cycling to stay fit as well as to reduce air and noise pollution, CO₂ emissions, traffic congestion, and other negative consequences of car use. In light of these benefits, a major challenge for researchers today is how to promote cycling. However, in countries where cycling is not common, apart from the need for proper cycling facilities, one major issue concerns people’s perception of cycling for sport or recreational activities rather than as a mode of transport. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of perception in the likelihood of the bike being used for utilitarian purposes. We focus on the perception of: the bicycle as a means of transport; bikeability (in terms of usefulness and safety) and of bike infrastructure. Hybrid Choice Models (HCMs) have been used to estimate the effect of people’s perception on the propensity to bike. The HCM also accounts for the serial correlation between error terms in the discrete and latent perceptions, to allow for agent-common unknown factors. Furthermore, we also validate the model results using a hold-out sample and discuss some policy measures aimed at changing travel behavior. The results suggest that, besides individual characteristics, latent aspects related to the perception of the context and of the bicycle as a means of transport strongly affect the propensity to cycle.     

Heterogeneous Firms and Asymmetric Product Differentiation

We introduce asymmetric product differentiation in a model characterized by a linear demand system, endogenous markups and heterogeneous firms (as in Melitz‐Ottaviano [2008]). In particular, a single industry is divided into a number of market segments, each characterized by a different degree of horizontal product differentiation. Such a setup allows us to explain, within a single theoretical framework, the non‐linear relations between firm productivity, size and exporting behavior that have been documented by the empirical literature. The theoretical results are tested empirically by examining the performance of French wine producers operating in market segments characterized by different levels of horizontal product differentiation. Such segments are identified using the official classification of French wines based upon the controlled denomination of origin, i.e., the Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée (AOC) system.     

Multiple attractors and global bifurcations in a Kaldor-type business cycle model

We consider a Kaldor-type discrete-time nonlinear business cycle model in income and capital, where investment is assumed to depend both on the difference between normal and current levels of capital stock, and on the difference between the current income and its normal level, through a nonlinear S-shaped increasing function. As usual in Kaldor business cycle models, one or three steady states exist, and the standard analysis of the local stability and bifurcations suggests that endogenous oscillations occur in the presence of only one unstable equilibrium, whereas the coexistence of three equilibria is characterized by bi-stability, the central equilibrium being on the boundary which separates the basins of the two stable ones. However, a deeper analysis of the global dynamic properties of the model in the parameter ranges where three steady states exist, reveals the existence of an attracting limit cycle surrounding the three steady states, leading to a situation of multistability, with a rich and complex dynamic structure.