The Opening, Short, Medium and Long Term Performance of Canadian Unit Trust Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

Abstract:   This paper investigates the initial pricing and performance of Canadian unit trust IPOs over a three‐ to four‐year period and then draws implications for the efficiency of the Canadian market. Overall, the results confirm the following: in the short term, unit trust IPOs are underpriced and outperform the Canadian market; in the medium term, IPOs are fairly priced and neither outperform nor underperform the Canadian market; and in the long term, IPOs are fairly priced but underperform the Canadian market. In addition, our results confirm that the size of underpricing is related to ex‐ante uncertainty about the value of the issue. Ex‐ante uncertainty proxies, namely total risk, exchange listing, relative bid‐ask spread, and relative volume of initial trade, all explain the size of underpricing. When the effects of these factors are controlled, the results confirm that Canadian unit trust IPOs are indeed overpriced in the short term but underpriced in the long term. We conclude that the Canadian unit trust IPO market appears to be inefficient in the short and long term, but over the medium, the market appears to be efficient.     

A Cox Parametric Bootstrap Test of the von Liebig Hypotheses

This study uses a Cox parametric bootstrap test to select between two specifications of the von Liebig hypothesis, a switching regression (SR) model, and a linear response function with a stochastic plateau. Specifying the production function as a linear response function with a stochastic plateau yields a superior approximation of the data for livestock gain as a function of forage allowance than the SR approach.
Dans la présente étude, nous avons utilisé la technique du bootstrap paramétrique de Cox pour choisir entre deux caractéristiques de l'hypothèse de von Liebig: un modèle de régression avec changement de régime et une fonction de réponse linéaire avec plateau stochastique. établir la fonction de production comme une fonction de réponse linéaire avec plateau stochastique offre une meilleure approximation des données sur le gain de poids du bétail comme fonction de l'apport de fourrages comparativement au modèle de régression avec changement de régime.     

Long-run Relationships Between World Vegetable Oil Prices

In the international edible oil markets, there is believed to be high substitutability between vegetable oils and fats produced under different conditions. In light of this, we consider the question: what is the nature of the long-run relationships between vegetable oil prices? Long-run co-movements among oil prices are analysed, based on a multivariate cointegration model. The empirical finding is that most co-movements are consistent with the predictions of market theory. Prices of oils tend to be grouped according to their different end-uses. Some policy implications of a buffer stock scheme are discussed.     

Analysis of efficient markets

A simple trading model is presented in which Bayes’ rule is used to aggregate traders’ forecasts about risky assets’ future returns. In this financial market, Bayes’ rule operates like an omnipotent market-maker performing functions that in 1776 Adam Smith attributed to an “invisible hand.” We have analyzed two distinct cases: in the first scenario, the traders’ forecast errors are uncorrelated, and in the second scenario, the traders’ forecast errors are correlated. The contribution of our paper is fourfold: first, we prove that the “efficient market” mean-return can be expressed as a complex linear combination of the traders’ forecasts. The weights depend on the forecast variances, as well as on the correlations among the traders’ forecasts. Second we show that the “efficient” variance is equal to the inverse of the sum of the traders’ precision errors, and is also related to the correlations among the traders’ forecast errors. Third, we prove that the efficient market return is the best linear minimum variance estimator (BLMVE) of the security’s mean return (in the sense that it minimizes the sum of the traders’ mean squared forecast errors). Thus, an efficient market aggregates traders’ heterogeneous information in an optimal way. Fourth, we prove that an efficient market produces a mean return (price) as a Blackwell sufficient (most informative) experiment among all possible aggregated expected return (price) forecasts.     

Credit Constraints in Manufacturing Enterprises in Africa

We investigate the question of whether firms in Africa's manufacturingsector are credit constrained. The fact that few firms obtaincredit is not sufficient to prove constraints, since certainfirms may not have a demand for credit while others may be refusedcredit as part of profit maximising behaviour by banks. To investigatethis question, we use direct evidence on whether firms had ademand of credit and whether their demand was satisfied in theformal credit market, based on panel data on firms in the manufacturingsector from six African countries. Of those firms with a demandfor credit, only a quarter obtained a formal sector loan. Ouranalysis suggests that while banks allocate credit on the basisof expected profits, micro or small firms are much less likelyto get a loan than large firms. We also find that outstandingdebt is positively related with obtaining further lending. Therole of outstanding debt is likely to be a reflection of inefficiencyin credit markets, while the fact that size matters is consistentwith a bias as well, although we cannot totally exclude thatthey reflect transactions costs on the part of banks. We presentan analysis showing how much more profitable small firms mustbe to obtain a loan than large firms.     

The changing face of HRM: in search of balance

Current models of HRM suggest that expectations about HR roles are changing as organisations are striving to make the HR function leaner and more ‘strategic’. In our article we explore the changing roles of HRM as they are perceived by different stakeholder groups within the HR profession through the medium of a study examining the diffusion of the concept of ‘the thinking performer’ launched by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development in 2002. We explain how the concept of business partnering dominates respondents' talk about HR policy and practice and raise questions about the impact of this in terms of HRM's relationship with employees, employee well‐being and the career paths of HR professionals. We argue that the profession needs to reflect seriously on the consequences of a dominant business/strategic partner framing of HR work, which fails to address the duality that has historically always been inherent in HR practice. We conclude that there is a need for a more balanced HR agenda addressing human and economic concerns in current and future models of HRM.