Operating targets and information variables in money multiplier forecasting

Zusammenfassung Zwischenziele der Zentralbank und Informationsvariable bei der Voraussch?tzung des Geldmultiplikators. — Die Prognose des Geldmultiplikators ist ein Zentralproblem beim Einsatz von Verfahren zur Erreichung geldpolitischer Ziele. Die Güte einer solchen Prognose entscheidet über die Genauigkeit der Geldmengenkontrolle durch die Zentralbank. Der Autor entwickelt und bewertet ein empirisches Verfahren zur Multiplikatorvoraussch?tzung, indem er monatliche Beobachtungen des Geldangebots mit w?chentlichen Beobachtungen der Zinss?tze kombiniert. Die daraus resultierende Prognose ergibt eine effektivere Leitlinie für Zentralbankoperationen als die früher empfohlenen Verfahren. Die empirischen Ergebnisse, die auf US-Daten für die Periode 1975—86 basieren, zeigen, da? die hier benutzten Prognosemodelle gegenüber den Ver?nderungen im geldpolitischen Regime der Vereinigten Staaten robust sind.

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Résumé Buts intermédiaires de la banque centrale et les variables d’information concernant les prévisions du multiplicateur monétaire. — Les prévisions du multiplicateur monétaire sont un problème central en utilisant des procédés du ?targeting? de la masse monétaire. La qualité de ces prévisions détermine la précision du contr?le de la masse monétaire par la banque centrale. Cette étude développe et évalue un procédé empirique pour les prévisions du multiplicateur en combinant les observations mensuelles de l’offre de monnaie aux observations hebdomadaires de taux d’intérêt. Les prévisions résultant offrent une directive plus effective pour les opérations de la banque centrale que les procédés proposés autrefois. Les résultats empiriques qui se réfèrent aux données des Etats Unis pendant les années 1975–86, indiquent la robustesse des modèles de prévision utilisés dans l’article en ce qui concerne les changements dans le régime de la politique monétaire aux Etats Unis pendant cette période.

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Resumen Objetivos operacionales y variables de información en pronósticos del multiplicador monetario. — Pronosticar el multiplicador monetario es un problema central en la implementation de esquemas con metas monetarias. La calidad de este pronóstico détermina la precision del control de la oferta de dinero por parte del banco central. En este trabajo se desarrolla y evalúa un procedimiento empirico para pronosticar el multiplicador, combinando observaciones mensuales de la oferta monetaria con observaciones semanales de la tasa de interés. El pronóstico résultante ofrece una regla más efíciente para las operaciones del banco central que los procedimientos propuestos anteriormente. Los resultados empiricos, basados en datos de los EE UU para el periodo 1975–86, indican que los modelos usados son robustos con respecto a los cambios en los regimenes de politica monetaria en los EE UU durante ese periodo.

     

Natural resource-collection work and children's schooling in Malawi

This paper presents results of research that investigates if long hours of work spent by children in fuel wood and water-collection activities, i. e., natural resource-collection work, influence the likelihood that a child aged 6–14 attends school. Potential endogeneity of resource-collection work hours is corrected for, using two-stage conditional maximum likelihood estimation. Data from the 1997–1998 Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS) conducted by the Malawi National Statistics Office (NSO) in conjunction with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) are used. The study finds that Malawian children are significantly involved in resource-collection work and their likelihood of attending school decreases with increases in hours allocated to this work. The study further shows that girls spend more hours on resource-collection work and are more likely to be attending school while burdened by this work. Consequently, girls may find it difficult to progress well in school. However, girls are not necessarily less likely to be attending school. Results further show that presence of more women in a household is associated with a lower burden of resource-collection work on children and a higher probability of children's school attendance. Finally, the research shows that children from the most environmentally degraded districts of central and southern Malawi are less likely to attend school and relatively fewer of them have progressed to secondary school compared to those-from districts in the north.     

The interaction between capital controls and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing countries

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the interaction between capital controls and exchange rate policies in developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s. We estimate a simultaneous-equations panel mixed logit model for the joint determination of two decisions. We find strong influences from de jure exchange rate regimes on capital account policies but somewhat weaker feedback impacts. With de facto exchange rate regimes the influences in both directions are similar to each other.     

Industrial relations in Central and Eastern Europe

This article analyses industrial relations in the new Central and Eastern European EU member states and the candidate countries Bulgaria and Romania. Focusing on the private sector, it describes the major organisational attributes of the social partners and the structural features of the collective bargaining systems in these countries. The extent of strikes and industrial disputes is discussed, and some indications of future developments are presented.     

Why economic growth is slow

This paper presents a general theory of economic progress in the LDCs: that increase in productivity is slow because, even given knowledge of the productive techniques used in the industrialized countries, for techno-economic reasons economic growth can proceed only in stages and requires a high degree of innovational talent, which is scarce in any country. The stages are delineated.It is then suggested that the theory is still more general; that, with consideration of one added factor, it provides a general explanation of variations among countries in the pace of increase in productivity.     

When less family is more: Trademark acquisition,family ownership,and internationalization

This study examines the relationship between international performance and the orientation of the firm towards trademark acquisition, and discusses family ownership as a moderator of this association. We conceptualize our study along three interrelated lines of ‘openness’ i.e. openness towards external resources, openness of governance, and openness towards international markets. The empirical investigation relies on a panel data analysis over four years, and on a cross-industry sample of European listed companies consisting of 712 observations. Our outcomes reveal that the attitude of the company to enrich the brand portfolio with externally developed trademarks is positively associated with the firms’ international performance. We also find that this relationship is moderated by family ownership. “Less family is more”: we find a positive relationship of openness towards trademark acquisitions with the firms’ international performance, which decreases with the presence of a family in a dominant position.