The employment effects of trade regimes and industrialisation policy in South Africa

This paper compares two studies which have estimated the employment effects of different trade regimes for South Africa. The differing results of these studies are important in terms of facilitating the choice among alternative trade strategies at a time when the economy is experiencing low growth and economic sanctions. The paper concludes that one of the studies is incorrect in its conclusions in that it falls to carefully define the problem being examined, leading to results which have limited applicability.     

Proper scoring rules for general decision models

If a decision maker whose behavior conforms to the max-min expected utility model is faced with a scoring rule for a subjective expected utility decision maker, she will always announce a probability belonging to her set of priors; moreover, for any prior in the set, there is a scoring rule inducing the agent to announce that prior. We also show that on the domain of Choquet expected utility preferences with risk neutral lottery evaluation and totally monotone capacities, proper scoring rules do not exist. This implies the non-existence of proper scoring rules for any larger class of preferences (CEU with convex capacities, multiple priors).     

Mozambique Metical Exchange Rate Dynamics: Evidence of Fractional Co‐Integration in the USA and South African Rates

This paper studies the exchange rate dynamics of the Mozambique metical with respect to the US dollar and the South African rand. However, instead of using standard I(0)/I(1) techniques, we use long memory and fractionally integrated and co‐integrated models. Our results indicate that the two exchange rates are highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or above 1. They also seem to be co‐integrated, with an order of integration close to albeit above 0 but with an AR coefficient very close to 1. Thus, although the two series seem to be fractionally co‐integrated, shocks in the long‐run relationship between the two variables are persistent and take a long time to disappear.     

Schumpeterian economics: some observations on the relevance of his theoretical contributions to the management of industrial research and development

This paper investigates the relevance of the theoretical writings of Schumpeter to the management of research and development (R&D) in small and large industrial firms. Schumpeter's emphasis in his early work on three main aspects of industrial R&D; namely the importance of entrepreneurship, industrial innovation and resultant creative destruction, were major new insights that rejected the long‐standing view that equilibrium was the best state for any industrial economy. This paper, with the aid of relevant literature from both Schumpeter and others, seeks to relate his theoretical approach (that changed over time to favour large firm R&D) to the implication for industrial R&D, and in particular, the relationship between R&D in small and large firms. The paper concludes that if Schumpeter had lived to see the current industrial landscape, he might have returned to his early belief that entrepreneurial new small firms remain key harbingers of technological progress.     

Looking Forward to Performance Improvement: A Field Test of the Feedforward Interview for Performance Management

This study examines the effectiveness of the feedforward interview for improving the job performance of employees relative to a traditional performance appraisal interview in a business equipment firm. Managers (n = 25) were randomly assigned to one of two conditions. Employees (n = 70) who engaged in a feedforward interview with their manager were observed by an anonymous peer to perform significantly better on the job four months later than employees (n = 75) who received the company's traditional performance appraisal interview. The finding that the feedforward intervention increased performance relative to the performance appraisal indicates that the effect is a relatively enduring one. The results suggest that the feedforward interview should prove useful for human resource managers who are searching for ways to increase the performance of their organization's human resources over and above the traditional performance appraisal. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.