Time to wealth goals in capital accumulation

This paper considers the problem of investment of capital in risky assets in a dynamic capital market in continuous time. The model controls risk, and in particular the risk associated with errors in the estimation of asset returns. The framework for investment risk is a geometric Brownian motion model for asset prices, with random rates of return. The information filtration process and the capital allocation decisions are considered separately. The filtration is based on a Bayesian model for asset prices, and an (empirical) Bayes estimator for current price dynamics is developed from the price history. Given the conditional price dynamics, investors allocate wealth to achieve their financial goals efficiently over time. The price updating and wealth reallocations occur when control limits on the wealth process are attained. A Bayesian fractional Kelly strategy is optimal at each rebalancing, assuming that the risky assets are jointly lognormal distributed. The strategy minimizes the expected time to the upper wealth limit while maintaining a high probability of reaching that goal before falling to a lower wealth limit. The fractional Kelly strategy is a blend of the log-optimal portfolio and cash and is equivalently represented by a negative power utility function, under the multivariate lognormal distribution assumption. By rebalancing when control limits are reached, the wealth goals approach provides greater control over downside risk and upside growth. The wealth goals approach with random rebalancing times is compared to the expected utility approach with fixed rebalancing times in an asset allocation problem involving stocks, bonds, and cash.     

THE FINANCIAL BEHAVIOUR OF CANADIAN PRIVATE CORPORATIONS AND GOVERNMENT ENTERPRISE: A FLOW OF FUNDS ANALYSIS

This paper examines and compares the portfolio behaviour of Canadian non-financial government and private enterprises. The greatest difference observed is the relatively small size and yet more active management of the government enterprise asset portfolio. In comparing our model of the private Canadian corporate sector with that of the US, we find the main difference to be a Canadian preference for borrowing rather than equity issue. This preference almost certainly reflects the high level of foreign ownership of Canadian resident corporations.     

The Ethics of Entrepreneurial Philanthropy

Journal of Business Ethics - A salient if under researched feature of the new age of global inequalities is the rise to prominence of entrepreneurial philanthropy, the pursuit of transformational...     

BUSINESS CYCLES AND ADMISSIONS TO SUBSTANCE ABUSE TREATMENT

We study the effect of business cycles on admissions to specialty substance abuse treatment using administrative data between 1992 and 2015. We proxy business cycles with the state unemployment rate and apply a panel fixed‐effects model. While previous economic research has shown that substance abuse is counter‐cyclical, we observe no change in the total number of admissions across the business cycle. However, focusing on average effects misses important heterogeneity. In substance‐specific regressions we find statistically significant evidence that heroin‐related admissions are counter‐cyclical while stimulant‐related admissions are procyclical. Our findings add to the literature on business cycles and health. (JEL I1, J2)     

Identifying research priorities in public sector funding agencies: mapping science outputs on to user needs

The users or benefiraries of research seem set to play an increasing role in the scientific system. Limited government funding combined with the growing view that publicly funded researchers should pay more attention to the needs of society mean that users as well as scientists should be involved in setting broad research priorities. Peer review, the traditional mechanism for making decisions on the allocation of research funds, is poorly equipped to consider user views and broader issues of scientific strategy, including the distribution of resources across fields. In the study described here, a number of new concepts and methodological tools have been developed for the combined inuolvment of users and researchers in determining priorities for strategic research in Public sector finding agencies. The study focuses on the scientiic work funded by the UK Natural ,Environment Research Council.     

Does Leaving School in an Economic Downturn Persistently Affect Body Weight? Evidence from Panel Data

In this study I test whether leaving school when the state unemployment rate is high persistently affects body weight. Because the time and location of school leaving are potentially endogenous, I predict the economic conditions at school leaving with instruments based on birth date and residence at age 14. My findings show that by age 40 men (women) who left school when the state unemployment rate was high have lower (higher) body weight.     

Scenario thinking: A practice-based approach for the identification of opportunities for innovation

Drawing on the social theory of practice, this paper ‘unpacks’ scenario thinking in the form of strategizing in product innovation teams to explore when and how the practice may lead to the identification of opportunities for innovation. Adopting a case-based approach, three software companies engaged in four new product development projects served as our empirical research sites. We found creative emergence and open-endedness of the practice in innovation teams serving as quintessentially embedded modalities and contingencies that supports the identification of opportunities for innovation as a potential outcome of scenario thinking. We also suggest a framework that specifies how specific team practices supporting scenario thinking (strategic conversation and human-material interactions, and reflexivity-in-practice) may operate in combination or serially, and which may lead in turn to the identification of opportunities for innovation.     

Alternative Poverty Lines for Malaysia

Because of the shortcomings of the Malaysian official poverty line, this paper offers several alternative regional poverty line estimations with varying underlying assumptions. Using the Household Expenditure Survey 2004/2005, poverty lines are estimated based on the consumption patterns of 10th and 20th percentile household per capita expenditure. The regional poverty lines from these reference groups produced robust poverty measurement rankings across regions in the country. We suggest that the poverty lines from both reference groups be used as lower and upper poverty lines for the country.     

The morning after: alcohol misuse and employment problems

Using a rich, recent, and nationally representative longitudinal survey specifically designed to examine alcohol use and associated problems, we investigate the effects of alcohol misuse on a series of understudied and perhaps less common employment problems. Such problems include being fired or laid off from a job, sustained unemployment, and conflicts with a supervisor and/or co-worker. After controlling for time-invariant omitted variables via fixed effects estimation, we find evidence that three measures of alcohol misuse are significantly related to employment problems. The results offer new information on the potential adverse labor market effects of alcohol misuse and shed light on potential mechanisms through which alcohol misuse may impact intensive labor supply and/or wages.     

加拿大综合教育组织有效的领导与管理

2007年10月,中央校成功举办全国农广校系统师资能力建设远程培训班。来自美国、加拿大及联合国粮农组织的4位专家就教育机构领导与管理、教育技术与学习支持系统和农村人口教育作了专题讲座。专家讲座的幻灯片文件已在＂中国农村远程教育网＂的＂国际远教广角＂栏目登载。应农广校系统广大教职员工的要求,中央农广校对外交流处组织翻译、整理了专家的讲稿,本刊将连续三期摘编专家的中文讲稿,供大家学习交流。本文作者Scott Maclean博士现任加拿大卡尔加里大学继续教育学院主任,在成人教育、继续教育和远程教育领域里的学术性杂志上发表了多篇文章。Scott Maclean博士效力于加拿大的大学继续教育协会,社会科学和人文科学研究理事会,现任中央农广校专家组国际咨询专家。此报告是应中央农广校体系师资能力建设远程培训之邀所准备。