Asset allocation in markets with contagion: The interplay between volatilities,jump intensities,and correlations

We study the impact of financial contagion on the dynamic asset allocation problem of a CRRA investor facing an incomplete market with two risky assets. We apply a Markov chain regime-switching framework with state-dependent jump intensities, diffusion volatilities and diffusion correlations. The key model feature that a switch to the bad contagion regime is triggered by a loss in one of the risky assets allows for the implementation of a hedging demand against contagion risk. Moreover, a state-dependent diffusion correlation combined with heterogeneity in jump intensities and volatilities can, e.g., generate a flight to quality effect upon a systemic jump.     

What Causes Banking Crises? An Empirical Investigation for the World Economy

We add the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist model to a world model consisting of the US, the Euro-zone and the Rest of the World in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. We test the model against linear-detrended data and reestimate it by indirect inference; the resulting model passes the Wald test only on outputs in the two countries. We then extract the model’s implied residuals on unfiltered data to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. Banking shocks worsen the crisis but ‘traditional’ shocks explain the bulk of the crisis; the non-stationarity of the productivity shocks plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a ‘run’ of bad shocks; based on this sample Great Recessions occur on average once every quarter century. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises—provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample.     

The impact of leniency and whistle-blowing programs on cartels

Antitrust authorities have set up leniency programs for cartel members that denounce their collusive agreements. These programs help prosecute participants and can thereby deter collusion. We compare the impact of reduced fines and positive rewards and argue that rewarding individuals, including firm employees, can deter collusion in a more effective way.We discuss possible adverse effects of whistle-blowing programs on firms' behavior, and particularly on turnover, incentives to innovate and cooperation. We also explore explanations for the puzzling fact that managers keep incriminating evidence and argue reward programs actually provide additional incentives for keeping such evidence.     

Data Aggregation Issues for Crop Yield Risk Analysis

With increased emphasis on risk management in agriculture and a lack of disaggregated or farm‐level yield time series, decision makers are often faced with having to make adjustments to temporal yield risk measures obtained from readily available but aggregated yield data. This paper provides some empirical evidence on what type of aggregation bias to expect when measuring temporal yield risk using yield observations averaged across a region relative to yield risk estimated from quarter‐section yield time series in wheat. This study highlights some of the challenges faced when estimating aggregation distortions in measuring yield risk defined by temporal variance, especially given the nature of the empirical data set used. Cluster analysis, visual examination of relative frequency distributions and mapping of yield risk clusters suggest that using a readily available, aggregate temporal yield risk measure has the tendency to underestimate yield risk observed at the quarter‐section level and that clear, geographic yield risk boundaries do not exist in municipalities or across larger areas in this study. Further research on crops more risky than wheat appears promising. Avec un plus grand intéret sur la gestion du risk dans l'agriculture et un manque de données détaillees ou bien de collections de séries temporelles sur les rendements, les décideurs sont souvent tenus d'apporter des correctifs aux measures du risk obtenues a partir des données de rendements qui sont disponibles. Cet artcle apporte une preuve empirique du type de biais lie a l'agrégation qui peut être présent dans le calcul du risk de rendement temporel obtenu a partir de rendements moyens de blé observés au niveau régional en comparaison du risk de rendement qui est estimé a partir de données basées sur des quart‐de‐sections. Cette étude met en exergue quelques uns des obstacles qui se présentent dans l'estimation de distosions liées a l'aggrégation dans le calcul du risk de rendement défini par la variance temporelle, speciallement étant donne la charactère empirique des données utilisées. L'analyse de groupe, l'examen visual de la distribution des fréquences relatives, et la cartographie de classes de risk de rendement suggèrent que l'utilisation de la measure du risk de rendement basée sur des données disponibles de risk aggrège temporel a tendence a sousestimer le risk de rendement observe au niveau des quart‐de‐sections et qu'il n'y a pas de frontières de risk de rendement certaines, géographiques qui existent entre les municipalités ou bien a travers les zones plus larges examinées dans cette etude.     

The organizational context for moral development: Questions of power and access

In this article it is argued that much research into processes of moral learning and development in organisations has been conducted under somewhat controlled conditions, and that these do not permit testing of individuals' thought and action under more extreme circumstances. Therefore in practice one needs to acknowledge the effect of the actual organisational context. Three aspects or issues concerning the effect of this context on interventions are identified: first, systemic factors, especially corporate culture, impact on individual behaviour; second, consultants and developers may have difficulty when working with people at different levels of moral development; and, third, differential influence among members of an organisation affects the possibility of, and the enactment of, moral development programmes.Each of these considerations is discussed while employing conceptualisations based on Kohlberg's ideas. However the question of influence and power is not one which has been addressed to any significant extent by writers in this particular area. The essential argument in this article is that this must be done if the full potential of research into moral development in organisations is to be realised.Patrick Maclagan is Senior Lecturer and director of Research in the Department of Management Systems & Sciences, School of Management, University of Hull, U.K. His current research interests concern managerial behaviour and management learning with reference to ethics in organisations.     

A financial planning model for presidential candidates

The necessity of entering a sequence of interrelated state primaries has forced presidential candidates to be much more deliberate in planning campaign finances. This paper presents a linear programming model for optimal allocation of time and money to each primary in order to maximize the number of delegates won. The model attempts to quantify and exploit the relationships between performance in early primaries and performance in later primaries, which has heretofore been labeled the “snowball effect.” Finally, the model, whose major use would be in overall strategic planning, is illustrated with an example.     

China in the World Trade Organization: Antidumping and Safeguards

China finds itself in a unique situation on antidumping andsafeguard issues. It is by far the main target of antidumpingmeasures, but (so far) one of the smallest users of such measures.China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession protocol includesstringent antidumping and safeguard provisions that its tradingpartners may use against its exports. The article examines threerelated concerns: how quickly large developing economies canbecome intensive users of antidumping measures, an evolutionraising concerns about China's recent antidumping enforcement;how China could minimize its exposure to foreign antidumpingcases, a recipe for both improving trade outcomes and for China'staking a leading role in reforming WTO antidumping; and theopportunities that the Doha Round of trade negotiations offerto China for negotiating stricter disciplines both on WTO contingentprotection and on the use by China's trading partners of thespecial provisions included in China's accession protocol.     

Organizationally Sensible vs. Legal-Centric Responses to the Eroding Employment At-Will Doctrine

Most private sector American employers have responded to the uncertainty created by the erosion of the employment at-will doctrine by adopting tactics aimed at avoiding the perceived costs associated with salient legal concerns (e.g., requiring written agreements to preserve the at-will relationship and defeat implied-contract claims). This article discusses the limitations of such a highly legal-centric approach, and provides an alternative decision framework that will promote more strategic, or organizationally sensible, employer responses. In addition to providing specific guidance for employers facing the employment at-will issue, the article's analysis and discussion illustrates a general approach that has relevance wherever organizational decision makers address employment decisions with potential legal implications.