An explanatory analysis of perceived risk decision weights (perceived-risk attitudes) and perceived benefit decision weights (perceived-benefit attitudes) in risk-value models

Abstract

All decision making requires a trade-off between risks and values. While Markowitz defined risk as the variance of returns (thus reasoning that investors should consider it as undesirable), the more general risk–value framework allows risk to be defined as a person’s subjective judgments. Psychological risk–return models go further, decomposing observed behavior (risk taking) into two processes: (1) a judgment of benefits and risks and (2) a trade-off between perceived benefits and perceived risks, with a person-specific willingness to trade-off units of returns (benefits) for units of risk, conceptualized as attitude toward perceived risk (PRA) and attitude toward perceived benefits (PBA). PRA and PBA describe the degree to which people find perceived risks and benefits attractive, all other things being equal, and are assumed to be relatively stable across situations and domains. We test this assumption in an empirical study, checking the temporal stability of PRA and PBA (using the a Domain-Specific Risk-Taking [DOSPERT] scale ) and the cross-task stability of PBA (performing comparisons between the DOSPERT and the Columbia Card Task[CCT]). Finally, we explain both PRA and PBA using the Big Five personality dimensions and Stimulating–Instrumental Risk Inventory (SIRI), showing that PBA weights increase with openness to experience, while the negative effect of perceived risk on risk taking (PRA) increases with conscientiousness and decreases with stimulating risk taking. The results show that PBA and PRA can be treated as traits which, in some instances at least, are stable across time and tasks, and which can be partially explained by personality, providing a link to the idea of a personality dependent ‘ideal point’ for risk preference.     

Development of tourism in Polish poviats in the years 2010–2017

Quality & Quantity - Poland is divided into 380 poviats. However the statistical data on the development of these small regions is available from official statistics, there is no study known to...     

R&D projects in the science sector

The purpose of this research was to determine and analyse diversity in various features of R&D projects implemented in the science sector in Poland, financed mostly from public funds. More exactly, the following aspects of R&D projects implemented in the science sector in Poland were examined: the relation between the actually achieved and the initially set goal, the project management methodologies and project time management methods used, features of the project team, the relation between the plan and the actual project realisation and management difficulties encountered in practice. These aspects and their diversity were examined in the context of the whole country, of various fields of science and various research units implementing pure research (the ‘R’ area) or applied research and experimental development (the ‘D’ area). The research was conducted by means of survey methodology covering a sample of participants of R&D projects in the science sector in Poland. The results were analysed by means of statistical methods (which constitutes a clear novelty with respect to the existing literature on R&D projects) and statistically significant phenomena gave rise to several important conclusions on how R&D projects implemented in the science sector are managed and what their realisation looks like in various fields of science and various institutions, in a relatively new EU members state and a former communist country like Poland. These conclusions may be the basis for important hypotheses (which require further research) on the project management quality in the science sector in Poland and in similar countries, which is closely linked to the problem of public money allocation, its efficient spending and control. Also, practical suggestions on improvement measures in the science sector with respect to R&D projects, limited not only to countries like Poland, but of a more general nature, are formulated.     

Robust pricing and hedging of double no-touch options

Double no-touch options are contracts which pay out a fixed amount provided an underlying asset remains within a given interval. In this work, we establish model-independent bounds on the price of these options based on the prices of more liquidly traded options (call and digital call options). Key steps are the construction of super- and sub-hedging strategies to establish the bounds, and the use of Skorokhod embedding techniques to show the bounds are the best possible.     

Sharp approximations of ruin probabilities in the discrete time models

According to Solvency II directive, each insurance company could determine solvency capital requirements using its own, tailor made, internal model. This highlights the urgency of having fast numerical tools based on practically-oriented mathematical models. From the Solvency II perspective discrete time framework seems to be the most relevant one. In this paper, we propose a number of fast and accurate approximations of ruin probabilities involving some integral operator and examine them along strictly theoretical as well as numerical lines. For a few claim distributions the approximations are shown to be exact. In general, we prove that they converge with an exponential rate to the exact ruin probabilities without any restrictive assumptions on the claim distribution. A fast algorithm to approximate ruin probabilities by a numerical fixed point of the involved integral operator is given. As an application, ruin probabilities for, e.g. normally and Weibull – distributed claims are computed. Comparisons with discrete time counterparts of some continuous time approximation methods are also carried out. Numerical studies show that our approximations are precise both for small and large values of the initial surplus u. In contrast, the empirical De Vylder-type ones strongly depend on the claim distributions and are less precise for small and medium values of u.     

To B2C or Not to B2C. Some Reflections on the Regulation of Unfair Commercial Practices from a Polish Perspective

The article addresses the issue of whether EU consumer law and national implementing laws require the distinction between business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) relationships. The Polish experiences with the implementation of the Unfair Commercial Practice Directive supply this well-known discussion with new arguments. In Poland, the near copy–paste implementation of this directive was done in nearly timely fashion. The outcome, however, is far from being nearly unproblematic, as the new act is disconnected from the old system in a simplistic way. Subsequently, the institutional choice for enforcement creates both an inconsistency with EU law and enforcement deficiencies that undermine the directive's policy aimed at achieving a high level of consumer protection. Notwithstanding the imperfect Polish law-making and law enforcement, a success story may have been unlikely in any event. While in its inception it was announced as a consumer law instrument, the Unfair Commercial Practices Directive operates in a field dominated by competitors. Therefore, the correct transposition of this peculiar directive into national law, as well as its application, was and still is a challenging task. It is questionable if it is feasible at all. Ultimately, the tangible incoherencies and the existing desynchronization of protection against unfair commercial practices, both at the EU and national level, raise fundamental questions not only about the necessity of separate B2C and B2B regulations but also about the interplay between the laws of the EU and the Member States, in particular the new Member States, and about the way they mutually affect and interfere with each other.     

Emerging Profiles of Polish Outward Foreign Direct Investment

In this study, the authors identify the emerging profiles of Poland's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) at the macro- and micro-levels and propose relevant policy measures. They also set up a theoretical framework for further investigation of the identified trends and patterns. Both types of analysis—macro and micro—point to a regional focus of Poland's OFDI on Europe and to a sectoral concentration on services, followed by manufacturing. At the same time, the micro-analysis reveals a dominant role of a few largest Polish multinationals in the country's OFDI.     

A typology of Polish consumers and their behaviours in the market for sustainable textiles and clothing

The paper discusses Polish consumers' behaviours in the market for sustainable textiles and clothing. The analysis presented in this article was undertaken because of:

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Cost of severe hypoglycaemia in nine European countries

Objective: Complications contribute largely to the economic gravity of diabetes mellitus (DM). How they arise and are treated differs substantially between countries. This paper assesses the total annual, direct, and indirect cost of severe hypoglycemia events (SHEs) in nine European countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Macedonia/the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (MK), Poland, Slovenia, and Spain.

Methods: Data was collected on epidemiology, treatment structure, SHE-driven resource consumption, and unit costs. Two systematic reviews—on the SHE rates and the resources used for treatment—and data on the days-of-work lost due to SHE along with salaries and employment rates were used. The total SHE cost in each country was calculated and how the differences are driven by individual parameters was analysed.

Results: The annual costs of SHEs varied in absolute terms from €379,951.25 in MK up to €58,429,684.40 in Spain, or—when expressed per one drug-treated DM patient—from €5.47 in Bulgaria up to €17.74 in Spain. Indirect cost constituted between 6.01% (MK) and 26.49% (Hungary) of the total cost. The differences between countries are driven mostly by the cost of treating a single event, and this is related to general differences in prices.

Limitations: The main limitation is the lack of good quality data in some parts, and the necessity to use mean-value imputations, experts’ opinions, etc. Additionally, we only considered DM treatment as the SHE driver, while other elements, e.g. style of living, may contribute substantially.

Conclusions: A common framework can be applied to estimate the economic burden of SHE in various countries, allowing one to identify the drivers of differences in cost. Treating DM is complex, and so no resolute conclusions ought to be drawn as to whether SHE management is better in one country than another.