Ignoring the existence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates one considerably understates the value of monetary commitment in New Keynesian models. A stochastic forward-looking model with an occasionally binding lower bound, calibrated to the U.S. economy, suggests that low values for the natural rate of interest lead to sizeable output losses and deflation under discretionary monetary policy. The fall in output and deflation are much larger than in the case with policy commitment and do not show up at all if the model abstracts from the existence of the lower bound. The welfare losses of discretionary policy increase even further when inflation is partly determined by lagged inflation in the Phillips curve. These results emerge because private sector expectations and the discretionary policy response to these expectations reinforce each other and cause the lower bound to be reached much earlier than under commitment. 相似文献
In previous studies concerning short- and long-run relationships for price–wage models, the cointegration analysis has been developed assuming the existence of a unique cointegration parametrisation. These empirical results reveal the presence of significant relationships, both in the short and in the long run, among prices, wages, labour productivity and exchange rate. In this paper we intend to develop the possibility of a more general type of cointegration, allowing for a change at an unknown time period in the sample. At this end we will consider mainly the long-run relationship among these variables using the testing procedure suggested by Gregory and Hansen (1996a,b). This permits us to consider a multivariate extension of the endogenous break univariate approach and, in the meantime, this enables us to test for cointegration in the presence of possible structural breaking cointegrated relationships under the alternative. The empirical analysis of a multivariate model for price–wage relationship both for Poland and Hungary, over the period 1970–1996, is presented and discussed. 相似文献
We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The proposed combination schemes are based on the forecasting performances of a given set of models with the aim to provide better turning point predictions. In particular, we consider predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach for both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and the Euro area business cycles. 相似文献
This study analyses Italian hedge funds performance and persistence. The peculiarity of the Italian hedge fund industry is that 95% of the hedge funds are funds of hedge funds (FoHF), whereas only 5% of them employ other investment styles. Using monthly data on FoHF provided by MondoHedge, we examine the impact of both market variables and funds’ own characteristics on funds performance using panel data. We find that the European, the Japanese and the emerging markets equity markets, and the commodity market have a positive impact on Italian FoHF performances, while the US Bond Market negatively affects them. Moreover, we find performance fees and notice days to have a negative impact on funds performances. Finally, we test the presence of performance persistence. Employing two different nonparametric methods, we find that funds performances are persistent on a monthly and quarterly basis, while the regression-based parametric method provides evidence of persistence only on a monthly basis. 相似文献
e‐Procurement is widely advocated as an effective tool to promote the participation of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as micro enterprises in the public procurement market. However, little evidence exists as to what factors may influence the allocation of contracts to differently sized suppliers. We address this issue by analyzing a rather rich and unique data set, namely the “direct award” (low‐value) transactions that took place on the Italian e‐marketplace during the period 2005–2010. In this paper, we exploit data from low‐value transactions to test the impact of different structural dimensions of the national public e‐marketplace on the probability that firms of different size are awarded public contracts, particularly focusing on micro and small firms. We find that both the nature of the public buyer and the characteristics of the traded goods/services do have an impact on different firms' ability to be awarded public contracts. We also test to what extent the geographical distance between public buyers and private suppliers explains the propensity of different size class of firms to be awarded public contracts, proving, at least to some extent, that some features of “physical” procurement markets are mirrored in the “virtual” market. 相似文献
We provide evidence on the influence of expectations and network effects on the timing of technological adoption. By considering
a sample of SMEs operating in Italy, we focus on the determinants of their decision to adopt Fast Ethernet, a communication
standard for Local Area Networks (LANs). We find that both expectations and network effects significantly affect the timing
of adoption. In particular, price expectations generally tend to delay adoption and (indirect) network effects in the form
of backward compatibility as well as informational spillovers tend to foster adoption. Firm size also matters.
To identify cost estimates related to myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) for use in economic models.
Methods:
A systematic literature review was conducted. Electronic databases and conference abstracts were screened against inclusion criteria, which included studies performed in patients who had T2DM before experiencing an MI or stroke. Primary cost studies and economic models were included. Costs were converted to 2012 pounds sterling.
Results:
Fifty-four studies were identified: 13 primary cost studies and 41 economic evaluations using secondary sources for complication costs. Primary studies provided costs from 10 countries. Estimates for a fatal event ranged from £2482–£5222 for MI and from £4900–£6694 for stroke. Costs for the year a non-fatal event occurred ranged from £5071–£29,249 for MI and from £5171–£38,732 for stroke. Annual follow-up costs ranged from £945–£1616 for an MI and from £4704–£12,926 for a stroke. Economic evaluations from 12 countries were identified, and costs of complications showed similar variability to the primary studies.
Discussion:
The costs identified within primary studies varied between and within countries. Many studies used costs estimated in studies not specific to patients with T2DM. Data gaps included a detailed breakdown of resource use, which affected the ability to compare data across countries.
Conclusions:
In the development of economic models for patients with T2DM, the use of accurate estimates of costs associated with MI and stroke is important. When country-specific costs are not available, clear justification for the choice of estimates should be provided. 相似文献