Earnings Announcements,Differences of Opinion and Management Guidance

Berkman, Dimitrov, Jain, Koch, and Tice (2009) document a negative relationship between differences of opinion and earnings announcement returns, and this relationship is more pronounced when short‐sale constraints are likely to be high. These findings are interpreted as support for the theory in Miller (1977) that binding short sale constraints cause pessimists to be underrepresented in price formation. We conjecture that accounting information (i.e., earnings news) is likely to play a role in this returns pattern. After controlling for the level of earnings news, we find that the relationship between differences of opinion and stock returns is either eliminated or opposite from what is predicted by Miller's theory. Further, we present evidence that suggests the confounding effect of earnings news can be explained by (pessimistic) management earnings guidance. Our findings offer an alternative explanation for why low differences of opinion stocks earn greater abnormal returns around earnings announcements.     

Insider trading around auto recalls: Does investor attention matter?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Using a comprehensive sample of customer complaints filed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, we examine the...     

The international policies of brain gain: A review

Policymakers across OECD countries have become increasingly concerned with the national and international debate about brain drain and have launched appraisal processes of the situations in their respective countries. The debates took different turns in different countries, but nevertheless, some common issues cut across a number of countries. The issues of academic structures and traditions, legislation and management, and reputation and image have surfaced as critical factors for brain drain and brain gain. In this paper I provide a systematic analysis of the international policy debates surrounding the issue of brain drain and brain gain and make an attempt to distinguish between them by classifying them into different categories.     

Refining Targeting against Poverty Evidence from Tunisia*

We introduce a new methodology to target direct transfers against poverty. Our method is based on estimation methods that focus on the poor. Using data from Tunisia, we estimate ‘focused’ transfer schemes that highly improve anti‐poverty targeting performances. Post‐transfer poverty can be substantially reduced with the new estimation method. For example, a one‐third reduction in poverty severity from proxy‐means test transfer schemes based on OLS method to focused transfer schemes requires only a few hours of computer work based on methods available on popular statistical packages. Finally, the obtained levels of undercoverage of the poor are particularly low.     

How Costly is Modern Maritime Piracy to the International Community?

This paper focuses on the impact of maritime piracy on international trade. Piracy increases the cost of international maritime transport through an increase in insecurity regarding goods deliveries. Bilateral trade flows between the main European and Asian countries over the 1999 to 2008 period are used to estimate an augmented gravity model that includes various measures of piracy acts. We found robust evidence indicating that maritime piracy reduces the volume of trade; the effect of 10 additional vessels hijacked being associated to an 11% decrease in exports. Consequently, the current cost of piracy in terms of international trade destruction is estimated at 24.5 billion dollars.     

Turn-of-the-month and intramonth effects in government bond markets: Is there a role for macroeconomic news?

This paper focuses on the turn-of-the-month (TOM) and intramonth anomalies in government bond returns. In particular, we examine whether the TOM and intramonth effects exist in government bond markets, and moreover, whether these anomalies are related to the release of macroeconomic news as suggested in recent stock market studies. Using data on the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury Notes and German government bonds, we document a modest TOM effect in government bond returns. This effect does not disappear after controlling for the release of macroeconomic announcements, thereby suggesting that the origin of the TOM effect is not necessarily the same across asset classes.     

Taxation, collateral use of land, and Japanese asset prices

Japan experienced a significant increase in land and stock prices in the late 1980s and a subsequent reversal in these asset prices in the 1990s. I use a neoclassical growth model to determine how much of these asset price movements can be accounted for by the observed changes in output growth and land-related taxation. In the model, corporations issue land-collateralized debt to reduce their tax liabilities, and the government follows a land-taxation policy that is countercyclical to land prices. Without these features, the model cannot generate any significant change in land values, even with a permanent increase in the growth rate of the economy, because a permanent increase in the growth rate results in a comparable increase at the rate at which agents discount future returns. The collateral use of land and countercyclical land-tax policy introduce a substantial magnification mechanism for asset prices by reducing the required return on land. I calibrate the model to Japanese data, and conduct steady-state experiments and deterministic simulations. I show that if the observed increase in the growth rate of productivity and the decline in land taxes were expected to be permanent by market participants, then the model can by and large account for the movements in land and stock prices, but has counterfactual predictions regarding the behavior of capital. If agents expect the observed changes in the fundamentals to be temporary, then the model cannot generate a significant increase in these asset prices.     

The Fed's policy decisions and implied volatility

This study examines how the Fed's monetary policy decisions affect the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index. The results show that stock market uncertainty is significantly affected by the Fed's policy decisions. In particular, we find that implied volatility generally decreases after FOMC meetings, while the relationship between target rate surprises and market uncertainty appears positive. However, our results also suggest that the apparent positive relationship between policy surprises and implied volatility is mostly driven by the volatility‐reducing effects of negative surprises. We further document that implied volatility is affected by both scheduled and unscheduled policy actions, with the scheduled path surprises having the strongest impact on volatility. Finally, our findings indicate that the impact of monetary policy decisions on implied volatility is more pronounced during periods of expansive policy. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

The international policies of brain gain: A review

Policymakers across OECD countries have become increasingly concerned with the national and international debate about brain drain and have launched appraisal processes of the situations in their respective countries. The debates took different turns in different countries, but nevertheless, some common issues cut across a number of countries. The issues of academic structures and traditions, legislation and management, and reputation and image have surfaced as critical factors for brain drain and brain gain. In this paper I provide a systematic analysis of the international policy debates surrounding the issue of brain drain and brain gain and make an attempt to distinguish between them by classifying them into different categories.