Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology. 相似文献
This paper examines the pricing behavior of securities of firms which repurchase their own shares. The results are consistent with a market in which investors price securities such that expected arbitrage profits are precluded. The results are also consistent with the hypothesis that firms offer premia for their own shares mainly in order to signal positive information, and that the market uses the premium, the target fraction and the fraction of insider holdings as signals in order to price securities around the announcement date. The observation that repurchases via tender offer are followed by abnormal increases in earnings per share and that mainly small firms engage in repurchase tender offers, provides further support for the signalling hypothesis. 相似文献
One of the new ways used by companies to demonstrate their social responsibility is to encourage employee volunteering, whereby
employees engage in socially beneficial activities on company time, while being paid by the company. The reasoning is that
it is good for employee motivation (internal effects) and good for the company reputation (external effects). This article
reports an empirical investigation of the internal effects of employee volunteering conducted amongst employees of the Dutch
ABN-AMRO bank. The study showed that (a) socio-demographic characteristics from employee volunteers markedly differ from those
of non-volunteers and community volunteers and (b) employee volunteering seems to have positive effects on attitudes and behavior
towards the organization. 相似文献
Bodewes, Theo, Development of Advanced Tourism Studies in Holland. Annals of Tourism Research 1981, VIII(1):35–51. The entry of tourism studies into the field of advanced education is often a difficult process. Theory and practice sometimes serve conflicting interests. In the Netherlands an option has been taken for a theoretical, multi-disciplinary approach with links to the field of practice. Within this framework, tourism is indissolubly connected with leisure and recreation, leisure being the core of studies. This implies that the universities should educate leisure economists, leisure sociologists, etc., and that advanced professional educational institutions should educate leisure experts. This paper discusses whether the problems and solutions in the Netherlands are recognizable and/or useful abroad, and whether one institution can learn from the experiences of others. 相似文献
Summary If taxes on labour income are passed on in wages the balanced budget multiplier may be negative. The present paper analyses
this problem from a theoretical point of view applying a linearized version of a model for the small open economy. The model
is dynamic, because account is taken of capital accumulation. Short-run and long-run solutions are expressed in terms of fiscal
policy variables, a wage push variable, the price level abroad and world demand. Numerical examples are supplemented to illustrate
the analytical results.
Acknowledgement is due for his helpful comment to S.K. Kuipers 相似文献
This study focuses on the dynamics of the gold price against bonds, stocks and exchange rates based on a disaggregation of the underlying relationships across different frequencies applying a wavelet decomposition. To analyze joint extreme movements (i.e. tail dependence), we adopt a copula approach, which helps us to assess the dependence between the returns of gold and other assets in calm and turmoil market times and therefore the hedge and safe haven functions of gold. We also examine whether gold prices are directly affected by changes in macroeconomic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and/or CPI forecasters disagreement. Analyzing data for nine economies for a sample period starting in 1985, we find that the role of gold changes significantly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Gold is unable to serve as a hedge or safe haven in the classical sense while the findings for the period prior to 2008 mostly suggest that gold is able to shield investors. Uncertainty measures display a surprising and time-varying relationship with the path of the gold price. While economic policy uncertainty is positively correlated with gold price changes, macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty among forecasters are both negatively related to gold price changes. 相似文献
This article analyzes the relationship between gold quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese sectorial stocks from 2009 to 2015. Using different copulas, our results show that there is weak but significant tail dependence between gold and Chinese sectorial stock returns. This means that the dependence between extreme movements of the two assets is not pronounced and confirms the role of gold as a safe haven asset. Based on analyzing the efficient frontier, CCC-GARCH optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness, we further show that adding gold into Chinese stock portfolios can help to reduce their risk. Gold appears to be the most efficient diversifier for stocks of the materials sector and the less efficient for the utilities sector. As a robustness check, we also compare gold to oil and indicate that gold is more efficient than oil in the diversification of Chinese stock portfolios.