Gold price dynamics and the role of uncertainty

This study focuses on the dynamics of the gold price against bonds, stocks and exchange rates based on a disaggregation of the underlying relationships across different frequencies applying a wavelet decomposition. To analyze joint extreme movements (i.e. tail dependence), we adopt a copula approach, which helps us to assess the dependence between the returns of gold and other assets in calm and turmoil market times and therefore the hedge and safe haven functions of gold. We also examine whether gold prices are directly affected by changes in macroeconomic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and/or CPI forecasters disagreement. Analyzing data for nine economies for a sample period starting in 1985, we find that the role of gold changes significantly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Gold is unable to serve as a hedge or safe haven in the classical sense while the findings for the period prior to 2008 mostly suggest that gold is able to shield investors. Uncertainty measures display a surprising and time-varying relationship with the path of the gold price. While economic policy uncertainty is positively correlated with gold price changes, macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty among forecasters are both negatively related to gold price changes.     

Tail dependence between gold and sectorial stocks in China: perspectives for portfolio diversification

This article analyzes the relationship between gold quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese sectorial stocks from 2009 to 2015. Using different copulas, our results show that there is weak but significant tail dependence between gold and Chinese sectorial stock returns. This means that the dependence between extreme movements of the two assets is not pronounced and confirms the role of gold as a safe haven asset. Based on analyzing the efficient frontier, CCC-GARCH optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness, we further show that adding gold into Chinese stock portfolios can help to reduce their risk. Gold appears to be the most efficient diversifier for stocks of the materials sector and the less efficient for the utilities sector. As a robustness check, we also compare gold to oil and indicate that gold is more efficient than oil in the diversification of Chinese stock portfolios.

     

Cross-section dependence and the monetary exchange rate model – A panel analysis

This paper tackles the issue of cross-section dependence for the monetary exchange rate model in the presence of unobserved common factors using panel data from 1973 until 2007 for 19 OECD countries. Applying a principal component analysis we distinguish between common factors and idiosyncratic components and determine whether non-stationarity stems from international or national stochastic trends. We find evidence that the common factors are I(1) while the idiosyncratic components are I(0). This finding indicates that cross-member cointegration exists and non-stationarity in exchange rates and fundamentals is mainly driven by common international trends. We find evidence that the common factors of the exchange rates and fundamentals are cointegrated. In addition, the estimated long-run coefficients of this common international relationship are in line with the suggestions of the monetary model with respect to income and money.     

Actor and Institutional Dynamics in the Development of Multi-stakeholder Initiatives

As forms of private self-regulation, multi-stakeholder initiatives (MSIs) have emerged as an important empirical phenomenon in global governance processes. At the same time, MSIs are also theoretically intriguing because of their inherent double nature. On the one hand, MSIs spell out CSR standards that define norms for corporate behavior. On the other hand, MSIs are also the resultof corporate and stakeholder behavior. We combine the perspectives of institutional theory and club theory to conceptualize this double nature of MSIs. Based on a stage model that looks at the interplay of actor and institutional dynamics, we generate insights into why actors join a voluntary MSI, how the various motivations and intentions of the actors influence the standard development, and how these as well as the MSI design are subsequently influenced by both external (institutional) and internal (club) dynamics.     

How Leviathan Taxes

The Leviathan hypothesis remains a cornerstone of constitutional tax theory. Following Brennan and Buchanan's (1980) seminal contribution, the power to tax is often likened to a monopoly, and its use by a revenue-maximising government is said to obey the rules of optimal taxation theory. We revisit, and refine, this position, explaining its underpinnings and discussing the Leviathan solution in several well-known optimal taxation models. It turns out that the power to tax is not a perfect analogue of ordinary monopoly power and that the similarity between Leviathan and optimal taxation solutions hinges on the irrelevance of distributional weights.     

Hierarchy vs. partnership

Simple organizations, composed of operatives and one manager, may be organized as a hierarchy with the manager appropriating all profits or as a partnership with (say) equal shares of profits. Conditions on profitability and the optimal span of control are analyzed. Next, partnerships are considered and alternative incentives and distributions are compared. When partners are free to choose their time inputs, then a sufficiently high preference for leisure as against income will make a partnership more attractive even though it is less profitable.     

Net Foreign Asset Positions,Capital Flows and GDP Spillovers

Open Economies Review - This paper sheds light on global GDP spillovers in the context of external imbalances. We adopt a Bayesian time-varying panel vector autoregression framework to analyze the...     

The Role for Long‐run Target Values of the Exchange Rate in the Bank of Japan's Policy Reaction Function

This paper analyses whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) had fundamental concepts in mind when carrying out interventions in the foreign exchange market. We start by considering different long‐run fundamental target values based on a monetary exchange rate model and compare them with more ad hoc targets. Based on these findings, we explain the intervention probability for the BoJ after 1991 based on an ordered probit model by accounting for subperiods and asymmetric effects. It turns out that estimated fundamentally based values for the exchange rate provide additional information for the decision to intervene, in particular after 1995. However, short‐run ad hoc targets seem to be very important, in particular from 1991 until 1995, while medium‐run ad hoc targets gain importance at the end of the 1990s. Overall, we find a ‘leaning against the wind’ strategy in the event of overvaluation relies on ad hoc targets while intervention in cases of undervaluation seems to be guided more strongly by deviations from fundamental values.