我国石油企业跨国经营战略的探讨

石油企业走出国门，实施跨国经营，是解决我国国内油气资源供求矛盾加剧的必然选择，也是维护和保障我国石油安全乃至国家经济安全的必由之路。文章探讨了我国石油企业国际化经营的必然性及其动因，进一步分析了目前我国石油企业国际化经营的发展现状，在此基础上提出了我国三大石油集团实施“走出去”战略的八项对策。     

磁防垢除垢技术研究与应用新进展

回顾了磁防垢除垢技术的发展历程，介绍了磁防垢除垢技术的作用效果和应用情况，分析了磁防垢除垢技术研究现状和存在的问题，跟踪报道了磁防垢除垢技术研究的新进展。     

基于神经网络系统的项目投资风险评价探讨

与传统的评价方法不同，神经网络模型具有自学习、自组织、自适应能力等的特点，它较好的克服了传统项目评价局限性以及依赖专家经验的弊端，为项目投资风险评价开辟了新途径。论文阐述了神经网络结构与原理，分析了项目投资风险评价的神经网络模型，通过应用评价，进一步探讨其应用价值及其意义。     

Optimizing the credit term decisions in supply chain finance

We study a credit term determination problem in the context of a supplier-buyer supply chain. The supplier's credit term decision is simultaneously made with its production and inventory decisions, and most importantly, it is impacted by the buyer's order quantity. We present a new game-theoretic framework to model this problem, which captures the interaction between the supplier's credit term decision and the buyer's order decision in a multi-period setting. An exact method based on nonlinear programming is implemented to obtain the optimal solutions. We apply our methodologies on a real world case. The computational results show that our approach significantly outperforms the heuristics with fixed credit terms, and either a short or a long credit term can be sub-optimal for the supplier in profitability. Our work offers the first data-driven model and solution approach that assists purchasing and supply managers to make optimal dynamic credit term decision in conjunction with production, ordering and inventory decisions in a game-theoretic setting.     

Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.     

服装CAD课程建设与教学改革研究

通过文献搜集和实地调研等方法进行相关研究,得出服装CAD课程的教学现状种种不足,在此基础上,提出通过其软硬件建设、师资队伍建设以及网络课堂建设等三个方面完善服装CAD课程建设工作,并从教学内容、教学方法以及教学评估等方面对服装CAD课程进行教学改革尝试,以期更好地促进服装CAD课程的教学完善。     

小农户合作生产影响因素实证分析

[目的]分析小农户合作生产意愿及其影响因素,以促进小农户发展多样化的联合与合作,提升小农户组织化程度。[方法]首先分类分层确定样本县、样本村,随机分类确定样本户,然后通过访谈和问卷调查获取农户数据,并利用描述性统计和Logistic模型对农户数据进行分析验证。[结果](1)农户土地经营规模小,种植结构单一,非农收入比重高,农业兼业化严重;(1)描述性分析表明,土地规模、人均农业纯收入、农机、农业社会化服务、县域经济、土地转出意愿对农户合作生产具有正向影响,家庭人口数量、非农收入对农户合作生产影响为负;(2)Logistic模型分析表明,对农户合作生产有显著影响的因素为非农收入、农业社会化服务支出和土地转出意愿。[结论]小农户合作生产意愿一般,农业社会化服务支出、土地转出意愿对小农户合作生产具有正向影响,非农收入对农户合作生产具有负向影响。     

资源配置视角下战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程研究

采用案例分析法，以国家传感网创新示范区建设的决策过程为研究对象，从资源配置视角重新审视了战略性新兴产业基地建设的决策过程。结果表明，在战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程中，地方政府充分发挥了主观能动性，与中央政府、科研机构及企业积极互动，获得了建设产业基地的资源。同时，中央政府完成了与产业基地甄选及部署相关的资源配置。     

农业创业情境下商业模式设计的影响机制研究——基于模糊集定性比较分析

农业创业者如何通过整合与管理资源与能力，设计新颖型商业模式创造更多价值，是实现乡村振兴战略的关键措施。文章基于资源编排、商业模式理论，以央视《致富经》栏目40个案例为样本，运用模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）方法，剖析资源编排、机会能力、创业学习所构成的前因变量组态对农业创业活动中商业模式设计的影响机制。研究发现，资源编排在农业创业活动中发挥不可或缺的关键作用；相较于资源结构化和资源捆绑，资源利用在新颖型商业模式设计中的作用更为突出；机会能力须与资源编排共同作用，方可实现新颖型商业模式设计；在资源编排作用缺乏时，创业学习的发挥有助于新颖型商业模式设计的形成。研究成果诠释了农业创业情境下资源编排、机会能力与创业学习对商业模式设计的影响机制，为开展农业创业活动提供指导。     

Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - There is limited evidence of the role of household-level adverse trigger events in driving mortgage default, and the evidence based on proxies,...