采用风险导向审计时需解决的几个问题

2003年10月,国际审计与鉴证准则委员会(IAASB)通过了新的审计风险准则。中注协也在2004年10月发布了修订后的审计风险准则征求意见稿。审计风险准则征求意见稿的发布不仅将使我国的审计风险准则与国际接轨,同时也为提高审计质量、降低审计风险提供了技术支持。然而,我国当前在采用风险导向审计时有几个问题急需解决,笔者拟从信息库的建设、注册会计师的知识结构、分析性程序、辅助审计软件的建设等方面对此进行一些尝试性的探讨。     

M2与社会融资规模偏离的原因及趋势研究

货币政策由数量型向价格型调控转型过程中,价格似乎变得更为重要。尽管如此, 货币数量与资金价格仍是观察“硬币”的两面,数量的趋势或能预判价格的变化。金融严监管 的背景下,货币数量尤其是广义M2在过去一年出现剧烈的收缩,而另一个货币数量指标社会 融资规模却仍然强劲,二者的分化使得我们感知货币松紧以及经济冷暖出现分歧。本文基于 M2和社会融资组成结构的异同点,分别对M2和社会融资近年来在金融自由化和金融监管收紧 过程中的变化机理进行梳理,并对未来趋势予以预判。首先,文章区分了M2和社会融资的组 成结构异同点,从共同的影响因素信贷入手进行分析和预判;其次,依据货币派生的机理,从 商业银行资产负债表来分析引起M2变动的主要矛盾进行深入解读;再次,对于引发社会融资 变动的信托和委托变化趋势予以分析。最后我们得出结论,由于监管重点的时间差异使得此轮 M2先于社会融资回落,未来二者分化将逐步收敛。     

Online Survey Data Quality and Its Implication for Willingness‐to‐Pay: A Cross‐Country Comparison

Using online surveys to elicit consumer preference is gaining popularity because of several advantages offered by this method. Past research mainly focuses on the comparison between online surveys and other survey modes. Few have explored methods of using online survey tools to improve data quality for consumer willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) estimates. This article determines the impact of using a validation question (VQ) approach that asked survey respondents to select a particular answer on improving online survey data quality across six countries. Results show that survey data quality is a common problem in online surveys across countries and the severity of this problem differs significantly. Using VQs might detect the respondents who are less careful in answering survey questions, thus providing less reliable answers. The econometric models for respondents who correctly answer VQs (pass VQs) perform significantly better than the models for respondents who incorrectly answer VQs (fail VQs). The WTP estimates for respondents who pass and fail VQs differ significantly; and in general the WTP estimates for respondents passing VQs have smaller variances than those for all respondents and for respondents failing VQs.     

基于云重心Shapley值的供应链融资联盟收益分配研究

针对Shapley值法在供应链融资联盟收益分配过程中分配因素考虑不全以及各分配因素随机性和模糊性强的缺点，本文利用云重心法修正Shapley值的收益分配。根据供应链融资联盟收益分配的主要影响因素，在传统的Shapley值法的基础上引入了风险系数、投入成本、努力程度以及信息对称水平4个分配修正因子，弥补了影响因素的缺失，并利用云重心法计算各联盟企业的收益修正值，云重心法能够解决定性指标和定量指标之间的模糊性转换，极大克服了Shapley值法自身的局限性。算例对比结果发现，改进的Shapley值法能更加合理的分配收益，有利于维持供应链融资联盟的稳定。     

民营资本的进入对我国风电产业发展的影响——基于断点回归的分析

为克服单差法存在变量内生性，倍差法对于控制组的严格要求往往无法得到满足，故文中采用断点回归的分析方法，在无对照组的情形下，对我国风电产业2012~2015年的资产总计、主营业务收入以及发明专利数月度数据进行实证研究，探究民营资本的进入对我国风电产业的影响。实证结果表明，从短期看，民营资本的进入对我国风电产业规模与技术效率具有统计上的显著正面作用，具有一定的经济意义；另外，这一机制的推行对产业创新产生了显著的负面作用。     

基于灰熵模型的大型工程项目供应商评价研究

针对大型工程的特点,建立供应商综合评价指标体系;将灰熵理论应用于大型工程供应商的评价,建立了基于灰熵理论的供应商综合评价模型。通过实例分析表明,灰熵模型对于大型工程项目供应商的评价客观有效,能够为大型工程供应商的选择提供科学依据。     

贵州省小微企业发展状况研究——以黔南州为例

小微企业是国民经济和社会发展的重要基础,是创业富民的重要渠道,在扩大就业、增加收入、改善民生、促进稳定、增加国家税收、活跃市场经济等方面有着举足轻重的作用.了解和研究小微企业的现状,助推小微企业的发展,可以更好地促进地区经济发展.     

Urban air pollution in China: destination image and risk perceptions

Inbound tourist arrivals into China have been declining in recent years, possibly in response to increasing levels of urban air pollution. To examine Westerners’ contemporary views on China as a travel destination, with a particular focus on air pollution, this research surveyed 600 US and Australian residents. An online panel survey collected data on cognitive and affective destination image, cognitive and affective risk perceptions, intention to visit China and key demographic variables. The findings show that, while China's cognitive image attributes were perceived positively, potential travellers expressed negative views about travel risks in China in general and about air quality in particular. Importantly, feelings towards the risk of air quality had a significant negative impact on destination image as well as intention to visit China. The research contributes to theory by highlighting the importance of considering affective risk perceptions in destination image studies. While some market segments seemed less sensitive to air pollution than others, this paper concludes that unless China proactively addresses the problem of air pollution, for example by seeking to stimulate positive feelings, international arrivals may continue to be compromised.     

小小柠檬里的川渝合作

合作带来收益 Cooperation Brings Benefts 两地之间果农来往交流,提高了柠檬的生产规模和质量.两地相关部门也积极为果农们牵线搭桥,在生产资料供应、产品流通和加工领域为产业发展创造条件. "一斤柠檬卖七两",这是在柠檬果农里广为流传的一句老话.说的是采摘的柠檬,至少有三成是次果,卖不上价.这对川渝两地的果农都是一件头痛的事.随着2019年潼南引进重庆檬泰生物科技有限公司,这一问题得到了很大缓解.