对推进供给侧结构性改革的思考

经济发展进入新常态,要求正确认识、主动适应与积极引领。推进供给侧结构性改革是中央经济工作会议作出的重大抉择,也是认识、适应、引领经济新常态的重大创新与必然要求。推进供给侧结构性改革是绕不过的关口,是推动经济稳中求进、稳中向好的历史性任务。要在全面理解供给侧结构性改革内涵的基础上,按照中央经济工作会议精神有的放矢、精准推进、重点突破,确保供给侧结构性改革取得实效,赢得经济社会发展的主动权。     

Cryptocurrency,confirmatory bias and news readability – evidence from the largest Chinese cryptocurrency exchange

We investigate whether Chinese cryptocurrency investors show confirmatory bias when processing authority‐related news. Authority‐related news is defined as news that is related to government authority (including central bank) policies or talk. By using data from the largest cryptocurrency exchange in China, we find that investors’ response to authority‐related news is negative and significant in general. Moreover, we find that the abnormal trading volume and standard deviation of abnormal trading volume are significantly higher for authority‐related news with higher readability, suggesting investors respond to the more readable authority‐related news with more trading behaviour.     

资源型地区转型的财政转移支付法律问题研究——以山西省为例

实施区域协调发展战略、实现资源型地区转型发展离不开作为国家宏观调控、政府干预和政策指导的主要手段之一的财政转移支付法律制度的支持,但现行财政转移支付法律制度制约着资源型地区的转型发展,如缺乏高层次的财政转移支付法律制度、横向转移支付法律制度缺位、资源型地区专项转移支付法律制度供求不均衡。并以山西省为例,从法经济学的视角,采用bootstrap方法进行实证分析得到资源型地区专项转移支付结构存在项目设置脱离实际、资金分配不合理的问题,据此提出完善资源型地区转型发展的财政转移支付法律制度的建议。     

Pricing temperature derivatives with a filtered historical simulation approach

In this paper, we propose pricing temperature derivatives using a filtered historical simulation (FHS) approach that amalgamates model-based treatment of volatility and empirical innovation density. The FHS approach implicitly captures the risk premium with the entire risk-neutral model (except the innovation distribution), thereby providing significantly more flexibility than existing methods that use only one designated parameter to capture the risk premium. Additionally, instead of relying on the fitted innovation distribution, the FHS approach uses empirical innovations to capture excess skewness, excess kurtosis, and other non-standard features in the temperature data, all of which are important for the correct pricing of temperature derivatives. We apply the FHS approach to pricing derivatives written on the temperature of Chicago, and demonstrate that this approach yields better in-sample and out-of-sample pricing performance than the constant market price of risk method and the consumption-based method.     

Innovation capability and post-IPO performance

This paper studies how firms’ innovation capability is related to their stock performance and eventual survival for a sample of biotech IPO firms. We create product-related measures of firms’ innovation capability by tracking the changes in R&D expenses, products, patents, strategic alliances, and product development stages for our sample firms, as disclosed in their IPO prospectuses and third post-IPO 10-K filings. We find that innovation capability is critical to contemporaneous stock performance and eventual firm survival. Biotech IPO firms are more likely to succeed in the long run, if they are able to expand the scale of their research undertakings and make progress in these research activities.     

新型城镇化发展与产业结构变迁的经济增长效应

利用全局主成分分析法和改进Moore指数,分别对新型城镇化水平和产业结构变迁指数进行测算,并在经济增长的空间相关性分析基础上,构建空间自回归模型、空间效应分解模型和面板门槛模型,实证检验了新型城镇化发展与产业结构变迁的经济增长效应。研究显示,新型城镇化通过发挥其“选择效应”优化产业结构、提升企业生产率,有效促进了经济增长;中国经济发展的“结构红利”因产业结构变迁而减弱,导致中国经济发展出现“结构性减速”现象,但产业结构变迁的经济增长效应仍存在;实现产城联动,发挥新型城镇化与产业结构变迁的“协同效应”,对于缓解经济发展过程中的“结构性减速”问题,促进中国经济增长具有积极作用;新型城镇化发展与产业结构变迁的经济增长效应因产城关系的阶段性不匹配而存在“门槛效应”。     

Statistical inference on restricted partial linear regression models with partial distortion measurement errors

We consider the estimation and hypothesis testing problems for the partial linear regression models when some variables are distorted with errors by some unknown functions of commonly observable confounding variable. The proposed estimation procedure is designed to accommodate undistorted as well as distorted variables. To test a hypothesis on the parametric components, a restricted least squares estimator is proposed under the null hypothesis. Asymptotic properties for the estimators are established. A test statistic based on the difference between the residual sums of squares under the null and alternative hypotheses is proposed, and we also obtain the asymptotic properties of the test statistic. A wild bootstrap procedure is proposed to calculate critical values. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed procedure, and a real example is analyzed for an illustration.     

供给侧改革中的人力资本结构优化研究

本文用受教育水平的差异来表示人力资本的结构。利用2004～2014年中国省级区域的数据,依次对每一年影响经济增长的人力资本和物质资本数据进行逐步回归。结果表明,教育水平不同的人力资本对经济增长的作用是不同的。2009年之前,高中学历人力资本是模型中解释度较好的人力资本。从2009年开始,对经济增长起明显促进作用的是大专及以上学历人力资本。在大专及以上学历人力资本成为经济增长的主要人力资本动力的同时,物质资本对经济增长的重要性在降低。对2009年之后的数据进行Malmquist指数测算,发现部分省级区域的全要素生产率有所下降。不同省级区域根据自身情况进行人力资本的结构优化。     

国防科技人员使命取向如何提升其工作旺盛力

国防科技人员工作旺盛力是推动我国国防科技工业持续发展的重要源泉,其形成机理备受学界和军工界关注且亟待开展实证研究。基于特质激活理论与自我决定理论,构建国防科技人员使命取向影响工作旺盛力有中介的调节效应模型。通过对5家军工科研院所及企业607名国防科技人员进行调研,结果发现：科技人员使命取向对工作旺盛力有显著正向影响;发展型绩效考核正向调节以上二者间关系;自主性动机在使命取向与工作旺盛力关系间起中介作用;发展型绩效考核对使命取向与工作旺盛力关系的正向调节效应通过自主性动机中介路径实现。研究结论对于军工组织有效激发员工工作旺盛力、提升管理绩效具有启示价值。     

基于科学知识图谱分析的国际园林景观史研究动态——以《园林与设计景观史(1998—2017)》杂志刊载论文为对象

以国际园林景观史学界的重要期刊《园林与设计景观史》(Studies in the History of Gardens & Designed Landscapes)为研究对象,运用VOSviewer和CiteSpace这2种科学知识图谱软件并结合传统研究方法,系统分析该期刊1998—2017年间刊载的508篇论文,揭示近20年来国际园林与设计景观史的研究动态、发展趋势、主题演进与学术脉络,为国内风景园林历史理论的研究和发展提供重要借鉴。