EFFECT OF FED POLICY ACTIONS ON THE DEFAULT LIKELIHOOD OF COMMERCIAL BANKS

Using a measure of default likelihood based on an option pricing method, we provide evidence that Fed policy actions affect the financial distress of commercial banks. When the Fed increases (decreases) interest rates, the measure of default likelihood increases (decreases). We show that when the Fed uses a tight money policy, the increase in default likelihood is more pronounced for banks that have less capital, have greater financial leverage, are smaller, have fewer growth opportunities, and have lower asset quality. Additionally, the effects on bank default likelihood are more pronounced when the Fed's policy signals less concern about economic growth, as indicated by its bias toward further tightening, and when there is a market expectation of higher short‐term market rates in the future.     

Mining and Social Movements: Struggles Over Livelihood and Rural Territorial Development in the Andes

Social movements have been viewed as vehicles through which the concerns of poor and marginalized groups are given greater visibility within civil society, lauded for being the means to achieve local empowerment and citizen activism, and seen as essential in holding the state to account and constituting a grassroots mechanism for promoting democracy. However, within development studies little attention has been paid to understanding how social movements can affect trajectories of development and rural livelihood in given spaces, and how these effects are related to movements’ internal dynamics and their interaction with the broader environment within which they operate. This paper addresses this theme for the case of social movements protesting contemporary forms of mining investment in Latin America. On the basis of cases from Peru and Ecuador, the paper argues that the presence and nature of social movements has significant influences both on forms taken by extractive industries (in this case mining) and on the effects of this extraction on rural livelihoods. In this sense, one can usefully talk about rural development as being co-produced by movements, mining companies, and other actors, in particular the state. The terms of this co-production, however, vary greatly among different locations, reflecting the distinct geographies of social mobilization and of mineral investment, as well as the varying power relationships among the different actors involved.     

GOLF TOURNAMENTS AND CEO PAY—UNRAVELING THE MYSTERIES OF EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION

Leading financial economists and activist institutional investors have long argued that the proper alignment of manager and shareholder interests requires the use of performance based compensation. Partly in response to these pressures, and in combination with a change in the tax code that encourages performance-based pay, corporate boards have dramatically increased their use of stock grants and executive stock options. Combine this development with the longest bull market in U.S. financial history, and the result is unprecedented levels of CEO pay at the close of the 20th century. This review of executive compensation reveals that the economic theory of tournaments may provide a rationale for the pattern, if not the level, of executive pay. Specifically it finds that the total compensation of the five highestpaid executives in a cross-section of new and old-economy firms is very similar to the pattern of payouts to players in a golf tournament. The author also reports that recent studies show a significant increase in the pay-for-performance correlation throughout the 1990s. But whether that correlation is as high as it should be, and whether current levels of CEO pay are socially "optimal," are questions that remain unanswered.     

Issues in the estimation and application of latent structure models of choice

Our paper provides a brief review and summary of issues and advances in the use of latent structure and other finite mixture models in the analysis of choice data. Focus is directed to three primary areas: (1) estimation and computational issues, (2) specification and interpretation issues, and (3) future research issues. We comment on what latent structure models have promised, what has been, to date, delivered, and what we should look forward to in the future.     

THE EFFECTS OF COMPANY TRAINING,FURTHER EDUCATION AND THE YOUTH TRAINING SCHEME ON THE EARNINGS OF YOUNG EMPLOYEES*

Abstract This paper provides evidence on the impact of company training, of post-compulsory education and of the UK Youth Training Scheme in the late 1980's on the earnings of 21-year-old employees in England and Wales. Earnings equations are estimated for each of seven groups of employees who have followed alternative routes from compulsory education into employment, allowing for selectivity into these routes. There are several findings, including: both high parental social class and better school qualifications help to channel people into higher status routes, while high local unemployment has the opposite effect; participation in company training in long spells substantially raises wages but short spells do not; YTS participation fails to raise, and possibly substantially lowers, wages even three years after graduation compared to those who left school at 16 and went to work and received no training; there is weak evidence that, even for those that do not enter higher education, it is better to stay on at school after 16 than go into YTS.     

Dynamic and asymmetric impacts of macroeconomic fundamentals on an integrated stock market

A large body of evidence indicates that macroeconomic and financial variables are dynamically interrelated. In an international setup, we analyze the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks on the stock market of a small open economy in an increasingly integrated world. We use a time-varying vector error correction model (VECM) that allows analysis of asymmetric impacts that depend on the state of the business cycle. A special focus is directed on monetary policy surprises, where we find that foreign shocks exert a strong influence on an integrated stock market, and that the stage of the business cycle heavily affects the signals of the shocks.     

Women's relative wage rate in The Netherlands, 1950–1983: A test of alternative discrimination theories

Summary This article presents the results of an inquiry into the relationship that is to be expected on theoretical grounds between women's wage rate compared to men's on the one hand and some macroeconomic variables on the other. Becker's discrimination theory is confronted with alternative theories. On the base of data for the Netherlands the authors investigate which theory is most suited to explain the development of women's relative wage rate for the period 1950–1983. They conclude that the results of the empirical analysis predominantly support Becker's theory.The authors wish to thank Mr. R. Haagsma and Professor C.K.F. Nieuwenburg for their comments on an earlier draft of this article. Furthermore, they are grateful to Miss M.J.R. Key for computational assistance.     

Vulnerability and industrial hazards in industrializing countries: an integrative approach

The extra vulnerability of industrializing countries to environmental problems and industrial accidents cannot be understood or solved by a ‘normal’ scientific analysis. Aspects of the social and institutional context must be included, through analyses based on post-normal science. The standard two-dimensional classification of PNS is modified to have axes ‘social ‘and institutional vulnerabilities’ and ‘complexity of technological hazards’. The analysis is mainly applied to the case of the relatively rare accidents with catastrophic potential. In these, the deaths per accident in India, Mexico and Brazil are much greater than in the industrialized countries. This discrepancy arises partly from location of such plants near residential communities for marginalized workers and their families. Other socio-political factors are relevant, as the role of these countries in the global production system, the enforcement of safety and planning laws, quality of housing, and lifestyle of residents. Reducing the vulnerability of industrializing countries will therefore require major social policies and a comprehension of the limits of the normal scientific and economic approaches to such problems.     

Economic policy implications of the implementation of the single European currency

As it is well known, before the next century a single European currency, the Euro, will be introduced and European products will enjoy an extensive market. Economists have focused their attention on analyzing the different costs and benefits derived from the implementation of the single currency. With regard to the benefits of such an implementation, the most important ones are as follows. The introduction of a single currency will encourage internal demand and will help economic agents save transaction costs; labor distribution will improve; there will be less uncertainty in the markets; and, lastly, it will improve economic growth if technical transmission is facilitated. But there are also problems in the implementation of the single European currency. Credit institutions, especially banks and savings banks, will lose their income from the currency exchange process. It must also be considered that the economies will depend on the higher development level of the German economy. The goal of this paper is to analyze the costs and benefits derived from the implementation of a single currency.