Debt and household finance: evidence from the Financial Diaries

The Financial Diaries data-set is a unique, new set of year-long daily income, expense and financial transactions for households from three different areas of South Africa. These data show that over-indebted households (those that spend 20 per cent or more of their gross monthly income on debt) do not fit one homogeneous profile. Formal debt tends to be responsible for over-indebtedness in the urban areas, while in the rural areas the cause tends to be informal debt. In the urban areas high indebtedness is more prevalent among medium-income and high-income households, whereas in the rural areas it occurs at all income levels. High indebtedness in grant-dependent rural households tends to be persistent, whereas in wage-dependent urban households it is often short-lived. These findings present a new financial picture of poor rural populations that is unlikely to be touched by recent policy measures to address over-indebtedness.     

TECHNOLOGY AND SPAN OF CONTROL: WOODWARD REVISITED

This study of production operations in 95 New Jersey manufacturing firms explains the widely replicated curvilinear relationship between first line supervisory span of control and Woodward's technological complexity scale. Revisiting Woodward led to the initial proposition that the relationship was a by-product of the differing degree of task variability among the major types of production operations. A subsequent literature review of administrative requirements suggested the importance of size, complexity and automaticity on supervisory span of control. Our data indicate that variations in the span of control of production operations classified according to Woodward's scale are attributable to the underlying effects of size and task complexity. Technology, whether operationalized as Woodward's production types or automaticity of machinery explained little variation in the span of control of first line supervisors.     

SERVCON: development and validation of a multidimensional service convenience scale

As customers have demanded greater convenience in service exchanges, researchers have responded by incorporating the convenience construct into their conceptual models and empirical studies, but a comprehensive, formally validated measure of convenience remains lacking. This study conceptualizes service convenience as a second-order, five-dimensional construct that reflects consumers’ perceived time and effort in purchasing or using a service. Service convenience dimensions are salient at different stages of the purchase decision process. Given this conceptualization, the study presents the development and validation of the SERVCON scale, a comprehensive instrument for measuring service convenience. The five dimensions are independent within a nomological network that illustrates distinct antecedent and consequent effects, and the results reinforce the multidimensional representation, offering insight into the distinctive relationships between each service convenience dimension and its antecedents, such as competitive intensity, and consequences, such as repurchase behavior. The findings help researchers and managers understand a fully conceptualized convenience construct and facilitate the measurement of convenience in future empirical studies.     

Gaussian process regression for pricing variable annuities with stochastic volatility and interest rate

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we investigate value and Greeks computation of a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) variable annuity, when both stochastic volatility...     

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The value of youth: equalizing age differentials in marriages

"The objective of this paper is to present a model of constrained utility-maximizing behaviour which is able to explain several features of marriage. The model predicts that individuals meet in the marriage market and trade characteristics, in which they are relatively well endowed, to obtain characteristics in which they are less well endowed. The model implies a positive age differential in favour of the husband due to biological differences. This differential is shown to be attentuated by differences in earnings capacity and human capital investments. The model also has implications for dynamic aspects of marriage and provides an explanation for the secular increase in females' age of first marriage and difficulty experienced by females in the post thirty-year age group in finding suitable partners. An examination of unit record data on residents of metropolitan California from the 1980 United States Census reveals systematic patterns in the data are consistent with the theory."     

Pensions reforms,workforce ageing and firm-provided welfare

This paper investigates the impact of an exogenous increase in the legal retirement age on the firms’ propensity to provide welfare services voluntarily to their employees. To this purpose we exploit a unique information derived from the Rilevazione su Imprese e Lavoro (RIL), a survey conducted in 2015 on a large and representative sample of Italian firms. Applying different regression models we show that firms which were forced to give up previously planned hirings because of the Law 201/2011 (the so-called ‘Fornero pension reform’), increased the probability of providing welfare services at workplace. By referring to the sociological, human resource management and economic literature we then argue that a sudden increase in the legal retirement age may motivate the employers to establish welfare schemes as a way to cope with an ageing workforce. Our findings also hold when propensity score matching methods are used in order to control for sample selection issues.     

The Real Equilibrium South African Rand/US Dollar Exchange Rate: A Comparison of Alternative Measures

This article indicates how different measures of the real exchange rate, i.e., the exchange rate adapted for cost inflation, price inflation and labour costs, influence the equilibrium view and misalignment of the South African rand/US dollar exchange rate. The approach followed is based on the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate approach by Clark and MacDonald (1998), where the exchange rate is influenced by a number of fundamental and transitory factors. The real equilibrium exchange is estimated by using a single equation regression and a number of key explanatory variables. To determine the long-run relationship a Vector Error Correction Mechanism is used.     

Forecasting the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in southern Europe : A learning curve approach

Most analysts disagree upon whether photovoltaic systems (PV) will be able to play an important role in the energy scenarios of the future. A few scholars also question the appropriateness of policies that envisage the use of public subsidies to stimulate the growth of this industry and to accelerate market penetration. This paper contributes to this debate by examining whether carefully designed policies may initiate a process of large-scale diffusion of grid-connected PV, even without the deployment of external subsidies. Building upon a disaggregated characterization of the electricity market, it takes endogenously into account the learning curve phenomenon and simulates the diffusion of PV building-integrated systems in five European countries. The analysis is restricted to crystalline silicon systems and is repeated under four different macroeconomic scenarios corresponding to four different energy policies. The results suggest that already today there are opportunities for PV diffusion in many islands of the Mediterranean region, which may trigger sufficient scale economies to render the technology competitive in larger markets. They also show that the diffusion process could be accelerated through the implementation of carbon-tax policies that support initial penetration. The environmental benefits (net avoided CO₂ emissions over the system life cycle) associated with the forecasted penetration are also evaluated.     

Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states

The paper analyses the evolution of the trade specialization pattern in the new EU member states. Relying on the empirical approach of the Markov transition matrices it analyses both the changes in the external shape of the distribution of comparative advantages and the intra‐distribution dynamics. The new members show a dynamic trade pattern: they gained comparative advantages relatively fast in sectors in which they were lagging behind at the beginning of the transition, notably in some ‘high tech’ products. In addition, many specialization improvements occurred in those items for which world demand expanded at the fastest rate over the nineties.