Cross-country diffusion of photovoltaic systems: Modelling choices and forecasts for national adoption patterns

In this paper we propose an innovation diffusion framework based on well-known Bass models to analyze and forecast national adoption patterns of photovoltaic installed capacity. This allows for interesting comparisons among several countries and in many cases highlights the positive effect of incentive policies in stimulating the diffusion of such a technology. In this sense, the Generalized Bass Model proves to be essential for modelling and forecasting. On this basis, we observe important differences in the investments made by countries in the PV sector and we are able to identify whether and when these investments obtained the expected results. In particular, from our analysis it turns out that in some cases incentive measures have been certainly effective in facilitating adoption, while in some others these have not been able to produce real feed-back. Moreover, our cross-country approach is able to forecast different stages in PV evolution: whereas some countries have already entered the mature stage of diffusion, others have just begun. This result may suggest various considerations about the competitive advantage of those countries that invested in alternative energy provisions. In spite of a very diversified scenario in terms of historical patterns of diffusion, we may report, as a general result, the fragile role of innovators for this special market and the dominance of imitative behaviour in adoptions.     

Fossil fuel subsidies and environmental constraints

Fossil fuel subsidies are applied in many countries for different policy reasons such as maintaining jobs in fossil fuel sectors, securing national energy supply or lowering the energy costs of selected industries to strengthen competitiveness. The current economic costs of fossil fuel subsidy policies can be substantially increased by future environmental constraints. We illustrate this point in the framework of a general equilibrium analysis for Germany where we quantify the economic costs of alternative hard coal subsidy policies at different CO₂ reduction levels. Our calculations show that German hard coal subsidies as a means of retaining jobs can get very expensive with additional specific costs of up to annual 70 000 DM per job for a given CO₂ reduction target of 35%. Though the empirical analysis is focused on Germany the general conclusion that current subsidy policies of fossil fuels must be fundamentally reconsidered in view of forthcoming environmental constraints is also relevant for other countries.     

Learning or lock-in: Optimal technology policies to support mitigation

We investigate conditions that amplify market failures in energy innovations, and suggest optimal policy instruments to address them. Using an intertemporal general equilibrium model we show that ‘small’ market imperfections may trigger a several decades lasting dominance of an incumbent energy technology over a dynamically more efficient competitor, given that the technologies are very good substitutes. Such a ‘lock-in’ into an inferior technology causes significantly higher welfare losses than market failure alone, notably under ambitious mitigation targets. More than other innovative industries, energy markets are prone to these lock-ins because electricity from different technologies is an almost perfect substitute. To guide government intervention, we compare welfare-maximizing technology policies including subsidies, quotas, and taxes with regard to their efficiency, effectivity, and robustness. Technology quotas and feed-in-tariffs turn out to be only insignificantly less efficient than first-best subsidies and seem to be more robust against small perturbations.     

智能制造业创新产出：政府补助与市场竞争是否协同助力

基于2015—2019年中国智能制造行业上市公司数据，探讨政府补助与市场竞争对创新产出的协同作用，研究不同产业类别、不同市场竞争环境以及不同区域下政府补助的异质性效果。结果表明，政府补助和市场竞争对企业创新产出均有显著激励作用，市场竞争正向调节政府补助与企业创新产出的关系；政府补助对智能制造四大行业的创新产出均具有正向激励效应，其中对高端装备和新材料产业的促进作用更显著；在高市场竞争环境下，政府补助对高质量创新产出的促进作用更加显著；分区域看，东、中部地区政府补助对企业创新产出的促进作用更显著，且东部地区政府补助与市场竞争的协同促进作用更强，中部地区次之，西部地区较弱。结论对政府制定智能制造业补助政策、完善创新市场环境、促进政府与市场发挥协同创新作用等具有参考价值。     

Labour market institutions in open economy: Sectoral reallocations,aggregate adjustments,and spillovers

We introduce frictional unemployment in a multiworker heterogeneous firm model with a dynamic matching process, one‐ and two‐sector equilibria, and international markets. A change in labour market policies transforms the share of exporters and affects average productivity. The closure of equilibrium with or without sectoral arbitrage plays an important role in generating macro‐level outcomes for employment subsidies. Unemployment benefits, on the other hand, make unemployment and openness rise, independently of sectoral reallocations. We also find that simultaneous implementation of labour market policies remove potential gain in the trade share, and, when it comes to unemployment benefits, may even be detrimental.     

“PAY IT FORWARD” AND HIGHER EDUCATION SUBSIDIES: A MEDIAN VOTER MODEL

Since 2012, at least 24 states have considered legislation on Pay It Forward (PIF) models of higher education finance (which enable students to pay the price of college upon departure from an institution, as opposed to paying upfront tuition). This paper proposes a theoretical model of PIF policies within a framework in which voters belonging to different income groups vote over the level of subsidies to higher education. We analyze the impact of two types of potential PIF policies—a deferred tuition approach and an income share approach—on college access and on voting equilibria over subsidy levels. The results show that college access is enhanced by PIF policies. The equilibrium level of subsidies depends crucially on the pattern of income distribution, in particular on the relationship between mean income and the income of the median income group, and on whether higher education widens or narrows the distribution of income. We show that the equilibrium level of subsidies to higher education will not necessarily decline under PIF, and may increase in some circumstances due to changes in college access for low‐income groups. (JEL I22, I23)     

产业政策中的资金配置:市场力量与政府扶持

产业政策具有重要的国家战略意义,如何有效引导经济资源流向政策支持产业,是产业政策发挥成效的关键.现有相关研究未深入考察经济资源在扶持行业之间及行业内部配置的规律,而且没有综合探讨不同资金配置的关联.文章考察了市场力量与政府扶持两种机制如何引导产业政策下的资金配置.研究发现,产业政策支持的企业获得了更多的债务融资和政府补助.其中,债务融资更多地流向了成长行业中规模较大的企业,政府补助使成长行业中的小规模企业和成熟行业中的大规模企业受益更多.研究结果表明,市场看重企业的增长机会,政府补助则会顾及当前成长性较弱而相对不受市场青睐的企业,对产业政策下的市场化资金配置起到了补充作用.文章的研究为如何协调市场机制和政府扶持两种力量提供了一定的借鉴.     

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

This paper presents future scenarios of Irish energy-related CO₂ emissions to 2020, using a combination of multi-sectoral decomposition analysis with scenario analysis. Alternative development paths, driving forces and sectoral contributions in different scenarios have been explored. The scenarios are quantified by using decomposition analysis as a Divisia Index SCenario GENerator (DISCGEN). The driving forces of population, economic and social development, energy resources and technology and governance and policies are discussed. A set of four integrated or ‘hybrid’ qualitative and quantitative baseline emission scenarios are developed. It is found that sectoral contributions and emissions in each scenario vary significantly. The inclusion of governance, social and cultural driving forces are important in determining alternative development paths and sustainability is crucial. Our empirical results show that decomposition analysis is a useful technique to generate the alternative scenarios.     

政府补贴、研发激励与新能源汽车创新

通过政府补贴激励企业自主创新,是长期以来政府扶持新兴产业发展的主要方式。但现有研究对该模式能否起到研发激励效用仍然存在争议,特别是在信息不对称的情况下,骗补问题突出,使产业政策有效性再次成为焦点。在梳理新能源汽车产业政策历史沿革的基础上,根据政策特性把补贴分为研发补贴和生产补贴两个阶段,并通过计量检验和倾向得分匹配等实证方法评估其政策实施对新能源汽车企业研发的激励效果。结果发现,强度较高的“生产补贴”研发激励效用远低于强度较低的“研发补贴”,两种政府补贴方式都符合边际效用递减规律。最后,结合产业政策实施15年来的现实情况,提出补贴政策缓慢性退坡、建立可信的惩戒机制等政策建议。     

Trade, Exchange Rate, and Energy Pricing Reform in Iran: Potentially Large Efficiency Effects and Gains to the Poor

Iran is committed to substantial trade and market reform in its Third Five Year Development Plan. It started, however, with nontariff barriers on all products, a dual exchange rate regime with the market rate more than four times the official rate, and domestic energy product subsidies of about 90%. The authors develop a multisector computable general‐equilibrium model with ten rural and ten urban households to analyze the various reforms, separately and together. Reflecting the large initial distortions, they find that the combined reforms could generate large welfare gains equal to about 50% of aggregate consumer income. Moreover, the results show that well‐intentioned policies of commodity subsidies for the poor can have perverse effects. Even nontargeted direct income payments to all households (not just the poor) would enormously and progressively increase the incomes of the poor compared to the status quo.     

Industrial Policy As an Alternative to Trade Policy: Helping By Hurting*

Abstract Industrial policies that are essentially nonlinear taxes or subsidies on adjustment costs of domestic firms affect those firms' market power in oligopolistic international markets. These adjustment policies often can achieve a strategic purpose at lower cost to the government than linear trade or investment subsidies and are less likely to result in retaliation by other governments. Many governments, however, use adjustment policies for nonstrategic purposes without recognizing that they are reducing their firms' market power by subsidizing adjustment costs rather than taxing them.     

Strategic R&D policy under multiproduct duopoly and quality-price competition

This paper analyses strategic R&D policy in a third-country trade model where multiproduct firms with different production technologies compete in a vertically differentiated market. I show that the optimal R&D policies for both countries are subsidies when the product market is under price competition.     

产业政策提升中国数字企业的全要素生产率了吗？

提升数字企业全要素生产率是促进数字经济高质量发展的必要方式,而产业政策的有效使用将对这一过程起到重要的推动作用。本文利用2007-2020年中国数字行业上市企业的面板数据,实证检验了政府补贴、税收优惠、信贷支持和市场准入四类产业政策对数字企业全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,信贷支持显著促进了数字企业全要素生产率的提升,市场准入则起到显著的负向作用,政府补贴和税收优惠对数字企业全要素生产率的增长无明显效果,该结论在进行一系列稳健性检验后仍保持稳健。异质性和作用机制检验的结果表明,产业政策对数字企业全要素生产率存在产权、企业规模和企业生命周期方面的异质性作用,信贷支持和市场准入则分别通过缓解企业融资约束和加剧企业过度投资的方式影响数字企业的全要素生产率。本文的研究结论对于政府制定更为精准有效的产业政策具有一定的启示意义。     

The Installed Base Effect: Some Empirical Evidence From The Microcomputer Market

The penetration rate US network technologies is not only determined by the indigenous qualities of these technologies, but also by the adoption behaviour of other actors using the same network technology. This paper provides empirical evidence for the importance of network externalities and suggests that the econonmic consequences of network externalities - as they affect the diffusion speed of network technologies at an aggregate level - may be considerable.When the market offers incompatible network technologies, the relative share of previous adopters of the technologies plays a critical role in determining the diffusion speed of network technologies. This paper provides empirical evidence from the European microcomputer market between 1985 and 1994 which supports this hypothesis. Our analysis suggests that the diffusion speed of microcomputers at an aggregate level has varied with the relative order of magnitude of the network size of the two incompatible operating systems: a higher variation between the number of users of different microcomputers sold is positively relaled to a higher diffusion speed of microcomputers in general.     

Transforming the Energy System—the Evolution of the German Technological System for Solar Cells

To improve our understanding of processes involved in the formation and growth of new technological systems in the energy sector and to identify the associated key challenges for policy makers managing the transformation process, we examine the development of the German technological system for solar cells over the past 25 years. We use a "technological system' approach in which we will trace the evolution of actors, networks and institutions that have a bearing on the generation and diffusion of solar cells. An initial preparatory stage lasted until about 1989 and was mainly characterized by knowledge build-up induced by a Federal RDD programme. This was followed by a second stage characterized by political struggle over the regulatory framework and a subsequent beginning of a virtuous circle for solar cells. In the concluding discussion, we emphasize four key features of the evolution of the technological system: (1) the role of a coalition of system builders that successfully influenced the regulatory framework so that markets could be formed: (2) the considerable length of the learning period and the large number of actors that need to learn; (3) the importance of policies that form early markets (not only early niche markets, but beyond those) as only markets may induce firms to enter and learn, and (4) the need to run market formation policies simultaneous to policies that maintain technological variety.     

Credit Market Failures and Policy

In a simplified version of the Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) model of the credit market we characterize optimal policies to correct market failures. Widely applied policies, notably interest-rate subsidies and investment subsidies, are compared to the theoretical optimum.     

Spillover from private energy research

Technological progress is generally considered a key element in the move towards a less carbon-intensive energy use, and therefore public energy research expenditure has increased in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether relatively high subsidies to private energy research can be justified by higher external knowledge spillovers from private energy research compared to knowledge spillovers from other private research. Estimation of spillover effects is carried out using an unbalanced panel of more than a thousand Danish private companies observed over the period 2000–2007. We reject that there are higher spillovers from private energy research compared to other types of private research. Instead the results suggest that the external knowledge spillovers from energy research may be lower than for other types of private research. This implies that high subsidies earmarked for private energy research should not be an element in a first best policy to reduce CO₂ emissions.     

Industrial heterogeneity and international product cycles

We analyze the superiority of the specific, demand and cost ad valorem subsidies in industrial and export policies. The criterion employed to measure the ranking of the superiority of the subsidy policies in this paper is that, given an identical total output, the smaller the amount of the subsidy, the superior the subsidy policy. We show that the demand ad valorem subsidy is the least efficient policy, regardless of whether it is measured in regard to the industrial or export subsidy policies. The superiority related to the specific and cost ad valorem subsidies hinges upon the production technology. We can thus provide a theoretical explanation to the real world phenomenon as to why governments usually offer a specific or cost ad valorem subsidy policy to agricultural products and exports.     

Defying Convergence: Globalisation and Varieties of Defence-Industrial Capitalism

Globalisation is transforming the production of armaments in ways poorly understood, yet critical to states' security. Most analysts contend that this process forces states to converge upon laissez-faire policies that systematically disadvantage smaller states. However, broader research in comparative political economy suggests that domestic institutions drive states to adapt in distinct ways independently of their size. Indeed, the Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) approach argues that national institutions shape both how states develop adjustment strategies and their firms' comparative advantages. This article examines two small states – Israel and Sweden – to ascertain whether defence-industrial transformation drives them to converge upon common laissez-faire policies or, contrarily, whether distinct VoC shaped their adaptation strategies along different lines. To preview the conclusions, institutions impel states to respond to defence-industrial transformation in divergent ways. Liberal market states, such as Israel, respond by introducing greater competition for contracts and liberalising their import/export policies. In coordinated market states, such as Sweden, government cooperates with business groups to selectively open industries to foreign capital and position them to compete globally. Although they adapt differently to transformation's common challenge, these cases demonstrate that even small states can retain robust defence-industrial bases, albeit ones with increasingly distinct comparative advantages and disadvantages.     

Sustainable energy prices and growth: Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they don't, mostly — they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them.Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth.The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low in a growing economy.