Spontaneous duodenal fistula due to hepatic hydatid cyst

Connunication of a hepatic hydatid cyst to the duodenum appears to be extremely rare. This is the first case described in the imaging literature of hepatic echinococcosis fistulized to the duodenum studied by computed tomography.     

Die Bedeutung der monetären Analyse für die Europäische Zentralbank

Die geldpolitische Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank beruht auf der wirtschaftlichen und der monetären Analyse von Risiken für die Preisstabilität im Euroraum. Sollte der monetären Analyse eine prominente Rolle zugewiesen werden?Eva-Ulrike Feldkord, 31, Dipl.-Volkswirtin, ist wis senschaftliche Mitarbeiterin in der Abteilung Internationale Makroökonomie im Hamburgischen Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA).     

Foreign aid preferences and perceptions in donor countries

We present original survey data on preferences for foreign aid in 24 donor countries from 2005 to 2008. On publicly-funded foreign aid (Official Development Assistance, or ODA), we find patterns that are consistent with a standard model of democratic policy formation, in which donations are treated as a pure public good. Controlling for perceptions of current ODA, we show that individual preferences for ODA are (i) negatively correlated with relative income within a country-year; and (ii) positively correlated with inequality at the country level. We extend the analysis to explain variation in the gap between desired aid and actual ODA, arguing that lobbying by high-income special interest groups can divert resources away from the median voter’s preferred level of aid. Consistent with this, we observe that ODA is significantly lower where policymakers are more susceptible to lobbying. Finally, we present a novel test of competing “crowding out” hypotheses. Self-reported private aid donations are negatively correlated with actual ODA, and positively correlated with perceived ODA. This finding is consistent with an emerging argument in the literature, whereby ODA crowds out private aid by enabling charities to forego fundraising activities and crowds in private aid through a signaling channel.     

Spurious principal components

The principal component regression (PCR) is often used to forecast macroeconomic variables when there are many predictors. In this letter, we argue that it makes sense to pre-whiten the predictors before including these in a PCR. With simulation experiments, we show that without such pre-whitening, spurious principal components can appear and that these can become spuriously significant in a PCR. With an illustration to annual inflation rates for five African countries, we show that non-spurious principal components can be genuinely relevant in empirical forecasting models.     

The relationship between principals’ configuration of a bundle of HR practices for new teachers and teachers’ person–organisation fit

Abstract

Based on studies in the private sector showing the positive effects of strategic human resources management (SHRM) on performance, many stress the value of adopting SHRM in the public sector. However, until now, the argument for applying SHRM in the public sector remains largely theoretical. Especially in educational contexts, it is unclear through which mechanisms SHRM affects performance. Therefore, this paper zooms in on the relationship between the configuration of a bundle of human resources (HR) practices and person–organisation (P–O) fit. A mixed methods design was used to collect both qualitative and quantitative data from principals and teachers in 56 Flemish primary schools. The qualitative data, which provides insight into principals’ configuration of HR practices, were converted into numerical scores and analysed, together with the quantitative teacher data, using multilevel analysis. The results show that both principals’ strategic and HR orientation are associated with teachers’ P–O fit. This study contributes to the research field of SHRM in education by studying a bundle of HR practices and how this relates to the fit of teachers’ own values with the school culture. The practical implications for schools are discussed.     

Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013

In this paper we investigate the long-run relationship between public debt and economic growth in the Spanish economy for the period 1851–2013. We develop a cliometric analysis of the debt–growth nexus using novel time series methods. We find some support for a negative relationship between both variables, but no clear evidence of a debt threshold. The estimated long-run elasticity in a one-break model shows a tendency to decrease over time from a nonsignificant 0.011 to a ?0.070, indicating that a 10 percentage increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with 0.70 percentage points lower real economic growth. Indeed, we find for the first subsample (1851–1939) either “decoupling” or “saturation,” while in the second subsample (1940–2000) the long-run elasticity coefficient becomes negative and significant. When we extend our analysis up to 2013, we find a break in 1971 coinciding with the twilight of Franco’s dictatorship and the Spanish transition to democracy.     

Specification Searching and Significance Inflation Across Time,Methods and Disciplines

This paper examines how significance inflation has varied across time, methods and disciplines. Leveraging a unique data set of impact evaluations on 20 kinds of development programmes, I find that results from randomized controlled trials exhibit less significance inflation than results from studies using other methods. Further, randomized controlled trials have exhibited less significance inflation over time, but quasi‐experimental studies have not. There is no robust difference between results from researchers affiliated with economics departments and those from researchers affiliated with other predominantly health‐related departments. Overall, the biases found appear much smaller than those previously observed in other social sciences.     

Matte matters: when matte packaging increases perceptions of food naturalness

Matte surfaces, that is, those that are dull or lusterless not glossy and shiny, are a current trend in packaging. But does packaging surface affect what consumers think about the product inside it? We focus on consumers’ perception of packaged food products at the point of sale. Using three experiments, we show that food in matte packaging can be perceived as more natural. Notably, the effect of matte packaging only holds for rather artificial products. When matte packaging increases perceptions of product naturalness, consumers also expect the product to be tastier and are more likely to buy it.

     

The virtuous circle of human resource investments: A precrisis and postcrisis analysis

We propose a dynamic model of positive feedback between human resource (HR) investments and companies' economic performance. The model assumes that HR investment increases profitability through labor productivity and, in turn, profitability improves HR investment through organizational slack. Based on data from a sample of 2,497 industrial companies over a 7‐year period (2005–2011), longitudinal analysis corroborates the existence of a two‐way relationship between HR investment and profitability over time. However, the emergence of an economic crisis weakens this feedback, identifying the effect of organizational slack on HR investment as the weakest causal chain link. In a postcrisis period, HR investment is not such a high priority for managers.     

Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market

This paper studies the predictive ability of a variety of models in forecasting the yield curve for the Brazilian fixed income market. We compare affine term structure models with a variation of the Nelson–Siegel exponential framework developed by Diebold and Li [Diebold, F., & Li, C. (2006). Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Yields. Journal of Econometrics, 130, 337–364]. Empirical results suggest that forecasts made with the latter methodology are superior, and appear to be more accurate at long horizons than other different benchmark forecasts. These results are important for policy-makers, as well as for portfolio and risk managers. Further research could study the predictive ability of such models in other emerging markets.