Simulation-based estimation of state-dependent project volatility

Project volatility is an essential parameter for real options analysis, and it may also be useful for risk analysis. Many volatility estimation procedures only consider the volatility in the first year of the project. Others consider that different years may have different values of the project volatility. This article takes into account that volatility may change not only with time but also with the state of the project. Two possible definitions for the project volatility are considered, the log-variance and the variance of the project value, and two simulation-based procedures are proposed for estimating state-dependent volatility: two-level simulation and one-and-a-half-level simulation. Computational experiments show that both procedures perform better than the method proposed by Copeland and Antikarov and that the one-and-a-half-level simulation procedure leads to the most accurate estimations of project volatility.     

Social norms,cooperation and inequality

This paper analyzes the outcomes that can be supported by social norms in a society of infinitely lived and patient agents that are randomly matched in pairs every period to play a given game. I find that any mutually beneficial outcome can be supported by a self-enforcing social norm under both perfect information and a simple local information system. These Folk Theorem results explain not only how social norms can provide incentives that support cooperation in a community, providing support to the concepts of social capital and corporate culture, but also how they can support inequality and discrimination.I am grateful to David Levine for invaluable guidance and ideas. I also thank Anna Aizer, Hongbin Cai, Walter Cont, Ernesto Dal Bó, Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Federico Weinschelbaun, William Zame, anonymous referees and seminar participants at Universidad de Buenos Aires, UCLA, Universidad T. Di Tella, Harvard Business School and Stockholm School of Economics for very useful comments and discussions     

Some Difficulties in Sacconi's View about Corporate Ethics

Lorenzo Sacconi's The Social Contract of the Firm (Berlin, Springer, 2000) is a major contribution to the normative theory of the firm. It contains a full-fledged contractarian explanation of the role of Corporate Codes of Ethics. Sacconi proposes a game-theoretical model of the normative structure of the firm, including explicit and implicit contracts binding the members of the organisation, and the so-called constitutional contract: the hypothetical agreement that sets the basic co-operative structure in which the organisation consists. While Sacconi's theory is sound and full of suggestions, it is doubtful whether it completely grasps the nature of organisational ethics. In presenting organisations as the product of an agreement among self-interested individuals, the model does not account for the social and systemic embeddedness of business institutions. This paper points to several shortcomings of Sacconi's view, and explores alternative understandings of a contractarian morality as applied to business ethics.     

On the Determinants of SME Cash Holdings: Evidence from Spain

Abstract:  This work analyses the factors that might explain the level of cash holdings in a sample of 860 small and medium-sized firms from Spain during the period 1996–2001. The empirical results show that firms have a target cash level to which they attempt to converge. The level of this target is higher for firms with more growth opportunities and larger cash flows. In contrast, the target level for cash holdings falls when the use of bank debt and the presence of substitutes for cash increase. Moreover, when the interest rates in the economy increase firms reduce their cash holding.     

Manufacturing strategy-technology relationship among auto suppliers

Each manufacturing plant has to develop its own path to success based on contingencies and on manufacturing practices links. On the basis of the latter, this paper tests the link between two of the most important manufacturing practices areas, manufacturing strategy (MS) and technology, without addressing causality or their combined effect on performance. This is done by selection fit, i.e. congruency adjustment. However, this paper goes beyond grouping both sets of practices in pairs, by using a more general selection view version, with practices from both sets related multidimensionally and subordinated by regression analysis to test for any congruent pattern. Regression results from a wide-ranging survey of auto supplier plants show that, in general, MS seems to have some kind of impact on technology, and that technology has some kind of influence on MS. In addition, a strong congruency between both practices areas is observed when using correlation. This suggests that when implementing or adjusting MS or technology, the other should also be considered; otherwise they may not operate effectively.     

On the Time Inconsistency of Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies with Many Consumer Goods*

In this paper, we study the time consistency of optimal policies in an environment where agents use cash to purchase many consumer goods and where those goods might be taxed at differential rates. Our main result is that optimal monetary and fiscal policies are, in general, time‐inconsistent, because the number of bond instruments is insufficient to influence all future fiscal decisions. However, there is one special case where optimal policies are time‐consistent, which is when differential tax rates across cash goods are optimally zero.     

The speed of adjustment in working capital requirement

This paper analyzes the determinants of working capital requirement (WCR) and examines the speed with which firms adjust toward their target WCR. The findings indicate that firms adjust relatively quickly, which supports the hypothesis that current balance sheet items are easier to manipulate and could be changed quite easily, even in the short run. Moreover, we find that the speed of adjustment is not equal across all firms and varies according to their external finance constraints and their bargaining power. Firms with better access to external capital markets and greater bargaining power adjust faster due to their lower costs of adjustment.     

Relationship lending and SME financing in the continental European bank-based system

This paper analyzes the relationship between banks and SMEs in the continental European bank-based system. We find that SMEs with longer bank relationships have enhanced access to loans, but at the same time they bear a higher cost for their debt. We also find that firms maintaining two bank relationships get the cheapest debt, which establishes a limit for the degree of concentration of bank relationships. Our results also show that the existence of trust between firm and bank improves access to financing and reduces the borrowing costs, whereas it increases the likelihood that guarantees will have to be provided. As a consequence, it seems that a relationship based on trust is a better strategy to improve SMEs’ access to finance than the establishment of longer or more concentrated relationships.     

BAYESIAN INFERENCE METHODS FOR UNIVARIATE AND MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODELS: A SURVEY

This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian approach versus classical procedures. The paper makes emphasis on recent Bayesian non‐parametric approaches for GARCH models that avoid imposing arbitrary parametric distributional assumptions. These novel approaches implicitly assume infinite mixture of Gaussian distributions on the standardized returns which have been shown to be more flexible and describe better the uncertainty about future volatilities. Finally, the survey presents an illustration using real data to show the flexibility and usefulness of the non‐parametric approach.     

Labour market outliers: Lessons from Portugal and Spain

Spain has the highest unemployment rate (22.2%) of any European Union country, Portugal one of the lowest (7.3%). Superficially, these countries share many labour market features: the toughest job security rules in the OECD, an apparently similar architecture of wage bargaining, and comparable generosity of their unemployment insurance systems, at least since 1989. We address the puzzle by examining Portuguese and Spanish labour market institutions, in particular job security, unemployment benefits and the system of wage bargaining. We then conduct empirical analysis of Spanish and Portuguese unemployment outflows and wage distributions, using micro data. We find differences in unemployment benefits (non-existent in Portugal until 1985, and less generous nowadays), differences in wage flexibility (wage floors by category established by collective agreements are set at a lower relative level in Portugal), and, in practice, higher firing costs in Spain. A key explanation of the difference in Portuguese and Spanish unemployment rates is the wage adjustment process. Generous benefit levels may have been necessary for the path Spanish unions took, but this was not the sole explanation of different wage setting in Spain and Portugal.